Acomb Stakes: Identifying the value in the Galaxy on an August Sunday night

This is an article with a very limited shelf life (designed for a play before the Acomb 48-hour market goes live tomorrow morning - Monday 18 August - at 0800).

The market for Wednesday's Acomb Stakes at York is dominated by two buzz horses (Italy and Distant Storm) from powerful trainers and powerful owners. Ballydoyle and Godolphin, the usual suspects.

These have both been plunge horses to the point where they are best price 7/4 and 15/8, having been significantly larger when this market was first priced up.

This all looks a bit excessive to The AntePoster, and we are putting up Goodwood Galaxy for the David Menuisier stable at 12/1 each-way.

Rationale:

We expect a large number of defections from this field, which is currently filled with 15 horses. This includes two other horses from Ballydoyle (who field market leader Italy), who we expect to be withdrawn.

• Galaxy Goodwood's form already puts him close to the top of the pile on the ratings, and we suspect he has a great deal more upside. His price looks wrong to us.

  
  

• His fourth to the high-class Zavateri in the G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood bears rewatching. He broke badly, giving up two lengths at the start, and was marooned at the back of the ten-horse for the great majority of the race. He then had to wait to get out for a clear run (typical Goodwood stuff), and flew home when finally in the clear, passing many horses in the last half furlong.

  
  

• There is a strong argument to be made that he has the beating of the third home in that race (Do Or Do Not), who is more exposed and in any case double-entered for the Gimcrack Stakes later in the week - an option that will be mighty tempting given the defection of so many leading players.

  
  

• Fast ground suits just fine, as Goodwood Galaxy was a comfortable winner on his debut at Salisbury (at 18/1, seeing off a 2/5 shot).

  
  

• From our sources close to the stable there seem to be confidence behind this horse coming into this race, and we expect him to run very well. He looks a massive place chance, and a decent win price at the current odds.

Recommendation: Back Goodwood Galaxy at 12/1 each-way with Bet365 to win the Acomb Stakes on the opening day of the Ebor Festival at York on Wednesday 20 August.