Hong Kong Cup: Japanese pair too big at 33/1 and 100/1

The antepost market for the Hong Kong Cup is all about two horses, Romantic Warrior (best price 3/5) and Voyage Bubble (3/1). These are two of the three superstars of the Hong Kong racing scene (we obviously doff our cap to Ka Ying Rising too) and the pair face off this Sunday in the Jockey Club Cup. European viewers won't have to set their alarm clocks that early to see it, and should tune in as this race – in addition to be a fascinating clash in its own right – will no doubt reshape the Hong Kong Cup betting.

Beyond these two, however, the feature contest of the Hong Kong International Races (HKIR) extravaganza on 14 December looks like it will lack any strength in depth, particularly with none of the biggest Japanese guns likely to be fired here. Masquerade Ball and Museum Mile (1-2 past the post in the Tenno Sho) have declined invitations. Croix du Nord is targeting the Japan Cup (and will switch to the Arima Kinen if not ready in time). Tastiera, third in last year's Hong Kong Cup and good winner of the QEII Cup at Sha Tin earlier this year, has surprisingly been diverted to the Japan Cup rather than rolling the dice for a third time at Sha Tin. It's just possible connections will wheel him back out again in Group 1 company three weeks later, but we rather doubt it (has never backed up that quickly).

No serious challenge can be expected from Europe, who haven’t won this race for aeons anyhow. Minnie Hauk, a ludicrously short 11/2 in the betting, looks finished for the year, and even a surprise roll of the dice would not make her an appealing bet over a trip too short off the back of that lacklustre Breeders Cup run at Del Mar three weeks ago. Most of the other Europeans quoted in the betting likewise look unlikely participants, as well as a cut below what will be required.

So is there a long-price play in the race? We are looking to Japan – who have won five of the last ten editions of the Hong Kong Cup – rather than the host venue to provide it, even if the former's A-listers will be missing.

Bellagio Opera is no mug, and looks the obvious one for the trifecta, but an each-way play at 11/1 in a race with two stars is not giving much away, so he doesn't appeal on an antepost bet.

Further down the betting, Lord Del Rey looks clearly overpriced at 33/1. Only in his most recent race (G1 Takarazuka Kinen, June) has this horse disappointed, and that was the only time this classy son of Lord Kanaloa has faced softish ground.  Otherwise, this lightly-raced 5-year-old has figures over ten furlongs of 1-1-1-2-2-2, and the most recent of those runs (G1 Osaka Hai) saw him beaten just a length by Bellagio Opera from a much less favourable draw.

The other one we think should be backed – for those who can get on before the price goes, as only one bookmaker is dangling this price – is Rousham Park at 100/1.

Cards on the table: we don't think Rousham Park has a much better chance of winning this than his price suggests. He's a very unlikely winner of the Hong Kong Cup, and may not do any better than in 2023 (when he was 8th of 11, beaten almost five lengths).

But we do think he has a squeak of placing if he runs to his best, and 25/1 for achieving a podium place at bookmaker fixed-odds terms (quarter of the win price offered by Bet365) is just pushing the boat out too far.

Rousham Park would need to bounce back from a few poor runs to get in the money here. But... - he's done that before;

- he's fit after a prep run;

- the invitation to Hong Kong has been accepted;

- the superb Christophe Lemaire has been booked to ride.

Most pertinently of all, on a going day – such as when a neck second to Rebel's Romance in the Breeders Cup Turf (December 2024) or neck second to Bellagio Opera in the Osaka Hai (March 2024) – Rousham Park can be a force to be reckoned at Group 1 level. And we like the angle that this will be the first time this son of Harbinger has raced twice in the space of a few weeks since that outstanding Del Mar run behind Godolphin's tough-as-teak gelding.

In short, we are happy to take a wild swing at a three-figure price on Rousham Park, for all that a total loss on such a wager is by far the likeliest outcome.

The appeal of a couple of bets before this Sunday's head-to-head between Romantic Warrior and Voyage Bubble is also increased by the age of these two antepost market leaders for the Hong Kong Cup in three weeks' time. These stars are both seven years old, and the former (who will celebrate his eighth birthday in March) exited his Middle East campaign earlier this year with an injury. Indeed, he has since had surgery involving a metal screw put in a fetlock joint. That doesn’t sound ideal to us at odds-on. 

With that in mind, we'll stick these 33/1 and 100/1 betting slips on the fridge door.

Recommendation:

Back Lord Del Rey each-way at 33/1 with Bet365 or Unibet to win the Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin on December 14.  If cut to 25/1, that's OK too. No lower.

Back Rousham Park each-way at 100/1 with Bet365 to win the Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin on December 14. If cut to 66/1, that's still value. No lower.