September Stakes: Devilish appeal at 16/1

It feels like summer is over in northern Europe. Temperatures are falling and the long-absent rain is at last coming. The flat season too is moving into its autumnal phase – the summer festivals are now increasingly distant memories as the focus of stakes-race attention moves to the Sprint Cup, Arc trials, St Leger, Irish Champions Weekend, and the Arc de Triomphe itself.

Talking of the Arc de Triomphe, the favourite for that race – the Juddmonte-owned Kalpana – will be using the September Stakes at Kempton this Saturday as a prep run for the big day in Paris in a month's time. She's heavily odds-on, as she should be. But that also means big prices elsewhere.

The AntePoster is intrigued by the mare Tasmania, who runs for the Sir Mark Prescott stable at 16/1. We are keen on an each-way investment for the following reasons:

• Very lightly raced 5-year-old mare, inherited by Prescott from the stable of Francis-Henri Graffard. Her back form includes a third place in the Prix de Diane (needs upgrading: wide stall and trouble in running)

  
  

• Came back from a year off to run on the all-weather track at Newcastle in late June. Here she finished second to Godolphin/Appleby's Diamond Rain, who would go to win a Group 1 in the US on her next start and probably heads to the Prix de l'Opera next (per Appleby to The AntePoster in a brief chat on the Knavesmire). Third-placed horse Charlotte's Web has also franked the form, winning a very competitive listed race at the Ebor Festival a fortnight ago.

  
  

• Finished third to the classy One Look on her next and most recent start in a Group 3 in Ireland in July, flying at the end having been trapped behind a wall of horses two furlongs out (Racing Post: "repeatedly denied a run") and looking suspiciously like a top-class performer.

  
  

• A second attempt at 12 furlongs looks long overdue for this daughter of Derby winner Australia and a mare out of Adlerflug (sire of King George winner Goliath and Arc winner Torquator Tasso): Although Tasmania made one previous attempt under Graffard two years ago after her Diane run and was beaten 1.5 lengths into sixth as 5/4 favourite, it was a in-running disaster that is not difficult to forgive (Timeform: "found her way blocked on three occasions and should be forgiven this run… short of room 2f out and switched to inside but gap was closed...switched back but found gap closed again and by then it was too late."

In summary, while it should be pointed out that this mare has a habit of finding trouble, there's more chance of avoiding it over 12 furlongs, a distance at which we believe she still has plenty of upside. She was clearly kept in training for a reason (has lofty entries in both the Arc de Triomphe and the Champion Fillies & Mares at Ascot this autumn) and looks one of the few progressive horses in the race beyond the favourite. The stable's office has confirmed her to The AntePoster as a “definite” for the race. Big place chance, very slight win upset chance.

Recommendation: Back Tasmania each-way at 16/1 (Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Skybet, also other minor bookmakers: 14/1 also acceptable) to win the September Stakes at Kempton Park on Saturday 3 September.