Whitney Stakes at Saratoga: Two outsiders appeal at big prices

This Saturday will see the 98th running of one of the biggest races of the summer season at Saratoga racecourse (upstate New York): the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes. For four-year-olds and upwards, this contest is run over 9 furlongs – one furlong shorter than the Breeders Cup Classic two months later – but often throws up some of the key players for that major championship race.

Only two bookmakers were pricing up Saturday's race at the time of writing (Bet365 and William Hill), but we think the latter in particular has made an error by offering significantly higher odds than fair value for a couple of outsiders. We recommend the following each-way plays:

• With William Hill, back Post Time at 25/1. Britanny Russell's five-year-old has won 11 of his 18 races and finished in the first three in all other starts. Of his three Group 1 attempts, he came second in the Met Mile (Saratoga) last year, third in last year's Whitney (muddy track no help), and second in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile at a big price (as recommended by us each-way). This race should set up well for this closer as there is plenty of pace (Sierra Leone's connections are running a pacemaker to put it up to Fierceness). Last but not least, Post Time gets a healthy weight advantage from the other main players, as he has not won a Group 1. We consider 25/1 a great each-way price for this horse (who is 12/1 on David Aragona's Morning Line) to continue his tradition of placing at the highest level. Hills have just got this one wrong.

  
  

• With William Hill or Bet365 (better with latter on Rule 4 basis, see below), back the Godolphin runner Highland Falls at 14/1. This lad flopped in the Breeders Cup Classic in Del Mar out in California last November, but was previously an easy winner of the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at this very track, earning a career-top Beyer figure of 104. Following a long break, he returned to action in 2025 a month ago with a blowout win against lesser foes at Belmont, and the return to the scene of his finest lifetime performance bodes well for a big run from Brad Cox's charge, who is 8/1 on David Aragona's Morning Line. We don't think a win is out of the question, and the place price is just shy of 3/1, which also looks to represent value.

This is now an NRMB (non-runner money back) market, so there is no antepost risk. However, there is likely to be a so-called Rule 4 deduction on winning bets, as second favourite Mindframe is likely to be withdrawn (same owner has favourite Fierceness). While this will reduce the return (even more so for William Hill on Highland Falls, hence Bet365 recommended for that play), it also makes the chance of these horses placing all the higher, as Mindframe is one of the more formidable opponents in Saturday's feature race.