2000 Guineas: Call this wild shot in at 66/1

This is a flash article subsequent to our Mispricing Alert released on X a few hours ago. We believe Wimbledon Hawkeye is a must-play in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on 3 May at 66/1 each-way. Salient points:

• The Juddmonte-owned colt Field of Gold is the overwhelming favourite for the 2000 Guineas following his stunning win in the G3 Craven Stakes over the same course and distance.

  
  

• The Craven Stakes looks like the strongest trial run this year by a long way, with the horses behind Field of Gold having the following 2-year-old form:
  

  2nd horse home: G2 winner, G1 placed 3rd horse home: G2 winner, G1 placed, G2 placed 5th horse home: G1 winner 7th horse home: G3 winner

  
  

• The "2nd horse home" above was Wimbledon Hawkeye, who had finished second to The Lion In Winter (long-time favourite for the 2000 Guineas before losing the race to be fit for it) in the Acomb Stakes at York last August – ahead of Ruling Court, who is currently quoted at 11/1 for the Guineas.

  
  

• Wimbledon Hawkeye won the G2 Royal Lodge over course and distance in September, taking his figures on the Rowley Mile to 1-2. His overall body of form puts him firmly in the mix for the places, and he may well progress with a run under his belt.

  
  

• James Owen has confirmed today that the 2000 Guineas is Wimbledon Hawkeye's next target, whereas a number of horses still in the betting are doubtful.

  
  

• On all the evidence so far, he is equally at home on any ground so a deterioration in the weather forecast would be of no concern at all.

  
  

• Skybet have overreacted to the margin this colt was beaten in the Craven Stakes (three-and-a-half lengths) by pushing him out to 66/1. His median quoted price is 25/1; only one other bookmaker lists him at more than 33/1. At Skybet's odds, his chance of placing is quoted at 13/1, or 13/2 if the win part of the bet is completely ruled out. This looks divorced from reality.

  Summary: We believe Wimbledon Hawkeye has a decent chance of placing in the 2000 Guineas, much more so than implied by the 66/1 offered by Skybet. He should be backed each-way accordingly.