Ascot Champion Stakes: Only solid candidate is a must-play at 7/1

Lots of haze over the line-up for the biggest Group 1 left in the British (flat) racing calendar this year, the Champion Stakes at Ascot. As well there might be eight weeks out.

But if there is one crystallising narrative around the main contenders in the antepost betting for this market, it is that a whole host are doubtful participants due to alternative targets or fears over soft-ish going. Let's consider the top eight in the betting:

• Ombudsman's trainer made his Champion Stakes doubts very clear in the aftermath of the Juddmonte International: the Gosdens will only consider Ascot in mid-October if the ground is suitable, and are already making alternative noises about the Breeders Cup (see article of yesterday);

  
  

• Calandagan's connections suggested that the Champion Stakes was unlikely after the King George, but racing manager Nemone Routh confirmed as much on Nick Luck today. This gelding's priority is the Japan Cup, and a decent-ground Champion Stakes is no more than a possibility that would in any case would necessitate decent going;

  
  

• Constitution River is an unknown quantity at this stage;

  
  

• Item's likely target is dependent on the ground: trainer Andrew Balding said on Sunday (Nick Luck) that he would like to take him to the Arc de Triomphe, while the Irish Champion Stakes a still a possibility. A soft-ground Champion Stakes would seem grossly unlikely, and were Item to go to the Arc a reappearance 13 days later at Ascot would be in considerable doubt even if the going were decent;

  
  

• Daryz has a clear programme ahead of him: he is headed to the Prix Foy and then to the Arc. Given his terrible experiences of running to Britain, the chances of him appearing at Ascot two weeks after the Arc look to be bordering on the non-existent;

  
  

• Diamond Necklace has any number of autumnal options;

  
  

• Bay City Roller is prioritizing the Arc over every other target, possibly with a prep in the Prix Foy (subject to the ground being favourable). Whether or not he takes in the Champion Stakes 13 days later is a complete unknown, and he would not be fresh for it;

Given this backdrop, we feel Almaqam simply has to be backed at 8/1 (or 7/1, only one smaller bookmaker offer the longer price). As long as it's not rattling fast ground this son of Lope de Vega holds a big chance anyway (he was third last year on ground classified by Timeform as good to firm, unprecented for Champions Day), and if the rain really tumbles he will crash in price.

Hopefully he won't take in the Irish Champion Stakes along the way (Ed Walker is tempted to resist, but we'll see), but the case for him is simply too strong to worry about that.

In a rare departure from our standard policy (all bets are typically considered to be £10 win or £5 each-way for our P&L purposes, i.e. 1 pt win or 0.5 pts e/w), this is a "2 point" recommendation. In other words, we will count this wager as £10 e/w for our P&L purposes.

Recommendation: Back Almaqam each-way at 8/1 each-way to win the Champion Stakes at Ascot racecourse on Saturday 17 October. Price available with Betway. Also fine is the 7/1 with multiple other bookmakers including Bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power and Skybet.