Breeders Cup Juvenile: Respect the righteousness of faith at 10/1

We are keen to back a horse in the BC Juvenile before the pre-entries are released on Wednesday, when we expect the field for this race to shrink dramatically.

Our preferred play is Bob Baffert's "second string", Salahudin, at 10/1. The name means "righteousness of faith" (in Arabic) if you were wondering about the title of this article. And was also the given name of a very famous fellow, namely An-Nasir Salah ad-Din Yusuf ibn Ayyub ("Saladin"), the 12th-century Muslim sultan who founded the Ayyubid dynasty and recaptured Jerusalem. So now you know.

Why we like him:

• Salahudin has run three times, started favourites three times, and won three times. We don't know (and nor does anyone else) where his ceiling lies on a racecourse.

  
  

• His race distances have increased with each run: 6.5 furlongs, 7 furlongs, 8 furlongs. But he almost certainly wants to go further than that. Another step up to the 8.5 furlongs in the Breeders Cup Juvenile is likely to see him improve again, even if he will ultimately be at his best going longer. This son of Uncle Mo has a remarkably long stride.

• His Iroquois victory was not particularly impressive in terms of margin of victory, but the manner of that win very much was. Salahudin gave the field several lengths at the start and covered far more ground than any other horse in the field having been four horses wide all around the final turn. He was by far the best horse in that race.

  
  

• Salahudin's speed figures may be well behind that of stablemate Hughes, but they are progressive and his Iroquois performance was not dissimilar in Beyer speed figure terms to those posted by the trio who contested the Breeders Futurity last time (American History, Coach Pope, Q B Rocket). The trajectory has been sharply upward with every start;
  

• Salahudin's workouts since the Iroquois reveal he possesses plenty of speed for a horse who is likely to have stamina in spades: the four furlongs he clocked in 46.20 at Churchill Downs on 26 September was the fastest of 145 works timed at the distance, while his recent clocking of 58.40 for five furlongs at the same track on 3 October was the fastest of 21 works timed at that distance.

  
  

• His running style looks to align well with this race, which is likely to feature many horses who want to be forwardly placed. With a small field looking nigh certain (more than eight runners looks most unlikely, and there may well be fewer), Baffert's colt should be able to sit not too far off the front runners and power his way through tiring runners late.

  
  

• Unlike his stablemate Hughes, Salahudin is not going to have ship east. The latter has been based at Baffert's satellite operation in Kentucky for the entire summer, and all his runs have been in that state.

In summary, we believe Salahudin has a significantly greater chance than one in eleven to upset the Juvenile applecart. In a race certain to shrink to a small number of runners, he also looks to have a much better chance than one in three to be placed (i.e. 2/1 for place part of of an e/w bet). Hence that is our recommended wager.

Recommendation: Back Salahudin each-way at 10/1 to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Keeneland racecourse on Friday 30 October. Price available with William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral. Next best 9/1 with Betfred. The 8/1 generally available is still worth taking.