Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf: And Betty when you call me...

"The Europeans always win the major races on turf at the Breeders Cup."

Something of a mantra for many racing fans as the self-styled Breeders Cup World Championships loom large on the horizon.

It's patently not the case, but like many lazy generalisms it contains a small nugget of truth.

Broadly speaking, the depth of the pool of thoroughbred talent for turf racing in Europe is deeper than that of the US, where the dirt surface is king. Nobody would deny that. But the gap is of varying widths at different distances.

For example, the US horse racing industry really doesn't do 12-furlong turf racing at an elite level that bears international comparison with the major turf nations of Europe and the Far East. In the UK, Ireland, France and Japan this remains a revered division: the likes of the Derby, King George, Arc and Japan Cup (to mention just four of more than a dozen Group 1 races over that distance) are hallowed targets, whereas the equivalent prizes stateside are much less prestigious. No offence intended to races like the Joe Hirsch, Sword Dancer et al. But these prizes pale in kudos compared to the big prizes on dirt – the only truly revered 12-furlong race in the US is the Belmont Stakes.

Hence the extreme dominance of European shippers when the BC Turf comes around. Score in the last 10 years? A whopping 9-1 to Europe – Bricks and Mortar being the exception for those wanting a nice equine quiz question for the Christmas table.

But shrink the distance and you blur the clarity of the results. Take the Breeders Cup Mile on the turf. Here the record is just 6-4 in favour of the Europeans over the last decade, and over the 42-year history of the race it's actually 22-20 in favour of North America. The Turf Sprint is likewise very much up for grabs for horses from both sides of the pond.

Sticking at the distance of 8 furlongs, what interests us in this context is an American-trained horse in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. That might sound a bit strange, as this is a division in which the Old World appears to be a dominant force based on winners alone: the score over the last 10 years is a relatively clear-cut Europe 7, North America 3.

But that trend requires qualification. After all, the score is wholly dominated by the might of just two stables: Ballydoyle/Aidan O'Brien with five of those winners, and Charlie Appleby/Godolphin with the other two. In other words, this is more a case of specific yard dominance than continental superiority.

And what of those all-powerful yards this year? The latter will bring the ultra-quirky Al Hudaiba (very talented, but found wanting on his last start in a G2 in Britain before heading stateside) and just possibly another of lesser ability. O'Brien will no doubt bring at least a couple of his best colts, but it doesn't really look like this stable has a "chosen one" this year. The colt Haffner (mentioned by O'Brien for the Breeders Cup) doesn't appear to be at anything like the level of last year's outstanding candidate Gstaad, though it's possible this year's Coventry winner Great Barrier Reef  – who runs in this Saturday's Dewhurst Stakes  – might be added to the mix.

Either way, there is a growing sense that this year's 2-year-old male crop in Europe is less than stellar. The Racing Post's Tom Segal makes a strong argument in today's edition of The Weekender that this year's juvenile colts are a much less impressive bunch than the filles, and it's surely sobering for followers of Folsom Blues (O'Brien jr., may yet travel to Keeneland) that this visually brilliant winner of the G1 National Stakes at The Curragh was put in his place at Longchamp last weekend by the filly Amusingly.

The other factor to note where the Juvenile Turf is concerned is the different picture painted by the statistics once you delve deeper than the winner's circle. Of the 1-2-3-4 finishers over the last decade (i.e. a sample of 40 horses, 10 x 4 over that timeframe), the USA has actually provided a clear majority of 24 out of 40 placings. In short, our American rivals are truly competitive on their home patch at the Breeders Cup when it comes to 2yos on the grass at the distance of a mile, for all that either O'Brien or Appleby has usually been able to provide an ace to claim the spoils recently. And where there is weakness, the New World asserts: In 2019, for example, US runners led the home a 1-2-3-4 for the host nation.

All of this preamble is for a purpose. Specifically, we believe there's a very strong case to be made that the home side has a real good 'un for the Juvenile Turf this year who is ready for whoever comes over. And more to the point, that colt is – in our view – clearly overpriced in European betting markets.

So for those of you who are unfamiliar with the horse in question (which probably only applies to European readers), please get to know...

How's Al Today at 8/1.

The case for this son of Munnings, trained by the talented Riley Mott, is pretty simple:

• Lifetime form figures of 13111: the first two races (and hence his only loss) came over sprint distances on dirt;

  
  

• Unbeaten in his only three turf races, the first two being in elongated sprints (6.5 furlongs), the most recent coming in his first try at a mile;

  
  

• That last race was the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile with a hefty purse of $750,000. Competing in a large field in which he was tightly positioned amongst runners for much of the race, How's Al Today bided his time, absorbed the crowding and buffeting, angled out and simply blew the field away. He won by more than four lengths despite being geared down in the last half furlong.

  
  

• But for visually stunning performances to count as the real deal, there should ideally be two further stamps of quality, namely form and time. So how does that race shape up on those two metrics?
  

• Time: How's Al Today was assigned a Beyer of 94 for his Kentucky Downs romp. According to Daily Racing Form, this is the highest Beyer figure any two-year-old has recorded over a mile on US turf this decade. It's also seven points higher than the next-best two-year-old turf figure in America this year, and a whopping 19 points higher than the figure awarded to Al Hudaiba for his win in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine a few days later.

  
  

• Form: Agate, the third-placed finisher in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile, ran out a handome 1.75-length winner of the G2 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland last weekend, recording a very decent time. He too will now point to the Juvenile Turf. Note that this colt had been more than 6 lengths adrift of How's Al Today at Kentucky Downs.

In summary, How's Al Today looks like one of the best 2-year-olds the Americans have brought to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf in many years, and we don't believe European bookmakers have properly grasped the threat he poses by pricing him at 8/1.

Recommendation: Back How's Al Today each-way at 8/1 to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland racecourse on Friday 30 October. Price available with Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Skybet, and Betfair Sportsbook. Next best 15/2 Starsports and then 7/1 Ladbrokes and Coral.