Bahrain International Trophy: French set to pounce

When is it madness to back three horses in a race?

Some would say always.

But another view is... not when the odds of all three are out of kilter with reality. And on healthy four-place terms to boot.

Some of you might have watched our deep-dive analysis into the Bahrain International Trophy on Youtube a few days ago, where we we joined by the always-savvy Emmet Kennedy to look at this race in depth. If you haven't, watch it here for the full detail, horse by horse.

Things have evolved since then, not least with third-favourite Sallaal spiking a temperature and being withdrawn, but our analysis of the principals in this race in that video still stands.

Since that recording, The Anteposter has watched how this market has developed with a certain amount of disbelief. We wouldn't argue for one moment that the three UK-trained horses at the top of the market – Wimbledon Hawkeye, Royal Champion, Military Order –  don't have a decent chance, but the market's obsession with this trio looks warped to us. It smacks of money for the "known" by a certain geographical base (UK and Irish punters).

At current prices, we really like the French contenders on four-place each-way terms.

Yes, all three of them.

PHINEAS (10/1): Stunning trajectory of improvement this year until disappointing in the Prix Dollar as favourite. The stable suspects he ran below his best there after a relatively short turnaround. If they are right – i.e. if the Prix Dollar are was not not his true running – Phineas is quite the price at double figures. He was improving hand over fist before the Prix Dollar, crushing his opposition and demonstrating star potential.

ZAYDANN (10/1): The Juddmonte International, in which this Aga Khan colt finished fifth. was a seriously high-quality race. Looking at his record more widely, this colt racked up five straight wins before that contest, his first foray outside France. And after a 10-week break afterwards, he followed up with a narrow (0.5-length) loss to Wimbledon Hawkeye in the Prix Dollar on Arc weekend. His victor here is around a quarter of his price in the 16:35 tomorrow. That doesn't sit right with us.

BAROUD (18/1): If you had to single out a horse in this race whose ceiling of ability remains completely unknown, it would have to be this fellow. We doff our cap to Glacius too as the other 3-year-old (also rather dismissed in the betting), but prefer to hone in on this exciting son of Frankel. Immature earlier in the season but maturing seriously now. No one has any idea of how high this easy winner of the G2 Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville might fly. In our video on this race we expressed the desire for a bigger price than was then available (12/1) on a colt who is not on most punters' radar. And we now have it: 18/1, despite Sallaal coming out. We think that's cracking value and have acted accordingly.

As a final point, we would also observe that these two stables have "form" when travelling horses long distances:

• The Fabre stable has an excllent record shipping East. True, Bright Picture didn't shine in this race last year, but that horse also disappointed when running at Saratoga in the summer. Don't judge a stable on one horse when the record otherwise paints a very bright picture indeeed.

  
  

• The Graffard sample is smaller, but the Japan Cup win with Calandagan and excellent returns from last year's HKIR meeting (in which we recommended Quisisana to be be placed at 66/1 and Goliath to be placed at 50/1, see here for article, happy days) should be evidence enough.

We are putting all three horses on our P&L because we feel there is too much UK/IRE punter bias here and believe the three French-trained horses are wrongly priced. On four-place terms, we think they all represent value.

You may of course think we are quite mad and take the saner path of backing just one of them. So who's your preference?

Recommendation: Back any or all of the following horses each-way on four-place terms for the Bahrain International Trophy  (Bahrain, 1635 UK time, Friday 13 November):

Phineas @10/1 with Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet, Paddy Power

Zaydann @10/1 with William Hill, Boylesport, Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet, Paddy Power (12/1 available with Ladbroke and Coral for those who want a bigger price but only 3 places)

Baroud @18/1 with Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet, Paddy Power