HKIR: Graffard runners wrongly priced at 66/1 and 50/1

The AntePoster has already put up several outsiders (some of whom are now insiders) for the Hong Kong International Races (HKIR). We intended to stop there. No more picks m'lud.

But information from a certain French stable in the last 24 hours calls for further involvement.

Francis-Henri Graffard, the ascendant star of the French racehorse training fraternity, is set to fire just two bullets on the big HKIR weekend at Sha Tin in two weeks' time. According to the stable, Quisisana is set to run in the Hong Kong Cup (10 furlongs), Goliath in the Hong Kong Vase (12 furlongs).

Despite being Group 1 winners (the mare in the Prix Jean Romanet, the gelding in this year's Grosser Preis von Baden and last year's King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot), we accept that the pair deserve to be down the pecking order in the betting in their respective races.

But we are absolutely astounded to see quite how far down the betting they are languishing.

Specifically:

Quisisana is priced up at 66/1 for the Hong Kong Cup. Given the each-way terms available, this equates to just over 13/1 for a top-three placing. We think that's worth a swing, not least as Voyage Bubble – firmly put in his place by Romantic Warrior in the Jockey Club Cup on 23 November – is now being considered for the Hong Kong Mile (a race he won last year).

Quisisana was unbeaten in three runs earlier this season over this trip of 10 furlongs, culminating in a clear-cut win in the G1 Prix Jean Romanet in August. Like stablemate Gezora (with whom she is closely matched on form on a line through Bedtime Story), she was well beaten in the Arc but bounced back to claim third in the G1 Champion Fillies and Mares at Ascot behind Kalpana (only losing second place in the last furlong). We like the step back in trip, as well as the likelihood of faster ground.

Goliath is priced up at 50/1 for the Hong Kong Vase. This is an extraordinary price. Yes, this gelding can often disappoint (such as last time out in the Breeders Cup Turf on 1 November), but his previous three runs at this 12-furlong trip put him bang there for this contest:

- Brilliant winner of the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July '24.

- Decent 6th of 18 in last year's Japan Cup

- Good winner of the G1 Grosser Preis von Baden 12 weeks ago

In our view, this track record gives Goliath a chance of winning and a very high chance of placing, with the latter looking light years removed from the implied probability of 12.5/1 represented by the current Bet365 price (who are offering a quarter of the odds). At that price, we are happy to accept the risk of him putting in one of his poorer efforts.

In summary, both Quisisana or Goliath face stiff tasks to win this year's Hong Kong Cup and the Hong Kong Vase respectively. In particular, it would be extraordinary if Quisisana were able to beat superstar Romantic Warrior.

But that's not the point. As always, even a horse with an outside chance of winning a race becomes an enticing bet when their price is pushed out to daft territory, particularly when their equivalent chance of placing (at converted fixed odds terms) is so patently misrepresented.

And we believe this applies in both these cases.

Recommendation:

Back Quisisana each-way at 66/1 with Bet365 or Unibet win the Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin on 14 December. Take no lower.

Back Goliath each-way at 50/1 with Bet365 to win the Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin on 14 December (Unibet have the same price, but are only offering a fifth of the odds for the place, so Bet365 is preferable). Following price cuts, 40/1 with Bet365 at a quarter the odds is also OK.