Poule d'Essai des Poulains: Salute this Roman officer at 25/1

The next few days will see the drip-by-drip feed of "who's in who's out" for the next Classic of the European flat season for colts: the Poule d'Essai des Poulains, or French 2000 Guineas as most people this side of the channel call it. Fair enough, the original term is quite a mouthful for non-linguists. Just "Poulains" for short from here onwards.

The race is this coming Sunday. At the time of writing, 102 colts were still entered, making an assessment of the field a daunting undertaking at first glance. However, more than 80 must drop out by definition, and the average field size for the last ten years has been around 12, so if you know a horse is going and you like it at a price, now may be the time to act.

We have been prompted to act by a significant form development today, namely the return of the classy Hawk Mountain – winner of the G1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster last October – in the 1535 at Longchamp, the Prix de Guiche.

No, this Ballydoyle colt is not going to the Poulains. He's almost certain to be next seen as the very short favourite for the Prix du Jockey Club (aka French Derby) in a month's time. So why mention him?

Well, just 1.5 lengths behind Hawk Mountain today was one Lord Clover, one of Francis-Henri Graffard's top 3-year-old colts. He's smart this horse, and Graffard knows it. But on his previous start he was turned over at odds-on by Victoria Head's equally smart Wootton Centurion. And with Lord Clover having come out and franked the form behind one of Ballydoyle's best (having lost a good couple of lengths at the start for good measure), we think it's time to play this horse at 25/1.

This son of Wootton Bassett (the Centurion part being the name of the ownership group) has only run twice. His debut run came as a two-year-old last September, when he won a Chantilly maiden over a mile by six lengths. And his only other start was his seasonal reappearance against the afore-mentioned Lord Clover over the same track and distance on 2 April this year.

On both occasions Wootton Centurion led pretty much from pillar to post – conceding the lead briefly to Lord Clover on his second run before fighting back, showing a whole heap of grit – which makes the vicissitudes of the draw for Sunday's Classic less likely to be a problem. This fellow makes his own trip. The only question then is whether he is good enough.

That's a reasonable enough question for a colt who has only won a maiden and a conditions race, but today's form stamp has shifted the pendulum further towards the possibility of him being top class. And beyond Puerto Rico (who may or may not be primed to perfection for Sunday's reappearance, for all that Gstaad looked pretty darned fit on the Rowley Mile 48 hours ago) there doesn't look to be a tonne of quality in this race, not least as The AntePoster reckons around 20 of the colts quoted ahead of Wootton Centurion in the betting will not run.

In summary, this is a very smart and tenacious colt with an as yet unknown ceiling of ability and a seasonal reappearance that now looks very good indeed. Victoria Head confirmed Wootton Centurion to be on track for the Poulains ten days ago. Most bookmakers have yet to price the race up, but the Unibet price of 10/1 (which stood out even prior to today) looks about right to us. By extension, the 25/1 offered by the Flutter bookmakers appeals strongly as an enticing speculative play following today's form stamp at Chantilly.

We are not sure whether bookmaker prices will be taken down tomorrow morning for the first forfeit stage (1030 French time). You may want to wait to see how this market develops over the next 72 hours as more prices are put up. But we are acting now as we expect this price to contract significantly.

Recommendation for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains, Sunday 10 May

Back Wootton Centurion each-way at 25/1 with Paddy Power or Skybet. Take no lower than 20/1.