Queen Elizabeth II Cup: Weather picture points to ultra-consistent Fabre runner

Very unsettled weather picture in Hong Kong over the next few days. Sha Tin has pretty excellent drainage, but there's got to be a good chance there'll be a certain amount of dig in the ground come Sunday.

It's possible that none of the connections of the Big Four (Romantic Warrior, Masquerade Ball, Royal Champion, Sosie) will welcome this unsettled forecast. Romantic Warrior should handle it, having won this race two years ago on turf designated yielding. On the other hand, he only won that race by a neck, his smallest margin of victory in the the last two years. So whether he wants it soft is another matter. He's also in his ninth year.

For the Japanese raider Masquerade Ball any real give in the ground would be a complete unknown. He might handle it (both sire and dam seemed to cope fine on it on their sole encounter), and who knows, he might even thrive for it. But it's still a question mark.

We suspect the most impacted will be Karl Burke's rising star (if you can use those words about an 8-year-old gelding) Royal Champion. His last four races, which just happen to be the best performances he has ever put up, have all been run on ground designated good or better (note the Irish Champion Stakes third came on ground that was faster than the good/soft listed by the Racing Post). We believe rattling fast is best for this guy, which makes him potentially vulnerable.

With all this in mind, we have to put up Sosie at 16/1 to at least place in this race, which has a really beautiful each-way shape (eight runners at this stage, three places guaranteed as a payout anyhow).

Sosie prefers fast ground too, but crucially he handles cut just fine and being a 12-furlong horse the extra stamina demands of yielding turf may be just the ticket over this 10-furlong trip (which he is of course a multiple G1 winner over). Indeed, his Prix Ispahan win 11 months ago came on good to soft ground, and as that was little more than 9 furlongs we are not worried about the drop in distance.

Now in his prime aged five, Sosie boasts a lifetime body of form that has an absolutely rock-solid look to it. Aside from the four Group 1 wins, he has also only once in his life failed to place (for each-way payout purposes), that being in a strangely run Coral Eclipse last summer on rattling fast ground when he had to make his own running, which he patently hated.

A win may be rather unlikely given the calibre of the opposition (though we still reckon it's lower than 16/1), but we would put Sosie's chance of placing at even money at worst, yet even that outcome would yield a profit on the overall investment of over 100%. Too good an opportunity to pass up.

Note that William Hill (the only other bookmaker to be pricing up the race as things stand) have chalked up the selection at 7/1.

Recommendation for the Queen Elizabeth II Cup, Hong Kong, 26 April 2026

Back Sosie each-way at 16/1 with Bet365. Once this is cut, 14/1 is absolutely fine too. After than, 12s is tolerable.