Oaklawn Handicap: grey power to thwart returning 3yo stars at 6/1

This weekend features a truly mouth-watering clash of some of the best older dirt horses in training at Oaklawn Park in the US.

Reigning Kentucky Derby champion Sovereignty is set to clash with reigning Preakness champion Journalism, with the high-class White Abarrio the third "big beast" in a six-horse field.

The two younger horses have a bit to prove on their seasonal debuts. Sovereignty in particular. Saddled with topweight, he has the longest absence to overcome (a hefty 239 days). Bill Mott is most unlikely to have this horse cranked up to 100% fitness with a long campaign ahead that will not end until the last Saturday in October (Breeders Cup Classic). As an additional factor, this trip of 9 furlongs is likely to be less than ideal (his three most brilliant performances last season were over 10 furlongs, and he suffered his only loss last season in the Florida Derby over this trip). Last but not least, there appears to be general unanimity among US track watchers that his workouts coming into this race have been respectable at best, and certainly not stellar.

Perhaps his class will see him through. He's certainly got that in spades. But with so many question marks we think he has to be taken on at a best-price even money (1/1).

Arch-rival Journalism has an obvious chance of revenge here. Although he twice finished the wrong side of Sovereignty at two key winning posts last season (Derby, Belmont), the 9-furlong distance more in his favour than his arch-rival's: the former suffered his only three losses last year over the longer 10-furlong distance, winning his three Grade 1 races over this 9-furlong trip (or near as dammit, the Preakness is an extra 110 yards). But we didn't love his slightly dull Breeders Cup fourth, which came after a layoff, so 9/4 doesn't feel like a huge amount of value now that he too is coming off a long break off (169 days).

The one that stands out at the prices is White Abarrio at 6/1, almost twice his US Morning Line odds of 7/2. The former Breeders Cup Classic, Pegasus World Cup, and Whitney Stakes winner is no spring chicken, and was rather in the wilderness in the middle of last year (not for the first time, he's gone AWOL before). But he still "has it" if his recent Pegasus World Cup run in January is anything to go by. He was run down late by stablemate Skippylongstocking that day, but the pair were well clear and White Abarrio had a much less favourable trip from a wide draw. We think he was the best horse in the race that day. Saffie Joseph was on record as saying White Abarrio had a less than ideal preparation for the Pegasus, so to run the race he did was impressive. An 85-day layoff feels just fine, as this was the gap between his Whitney and his BC Classic win.

The final ace in White Abarrio's hand is the make-up of this race, which has no obvious front runner. This rings alarm bells for the front two in the market. White Abarrio has much more early speed than Journalism or Sovereignty, and can sit forwardly (or even lead) in a race where coming from the rear might prove difficult. And having drawn post 1 he is pretty much guaranteed to avoid the kind of wide trip that he suffered last time out.

In summary, any of the three big guns can win the Oaklawn Handicap, but in this particular constellation White Abarrio appeals as the one who is wrongly priced at 6/1.

Recommendation for Oaklawn Handicap, Oaklawn Park, 0020 (UK time), Sunday 18 April:

Back White Abarrio win only at 6/1 with William Hill. The 5/1 available with Bet365 and Unibet is OK as a minimum.

This wager has no antepost risk as this market has NRMB (non-runner money back) status.