Goodwood Cup: High-risk play worth rolling the dice for?

[This is a flash article due to its highly speculative nature and a short window of opportunity.

Only follow this wager recommendation on the understanding that there is a very high risk of loss.]

The complete outsider in the Goodwood Cup market, Miss Alpilles, is not a certain runner. She is also entered in the Lillie Langtry Stakes on the final day of the same meeting.

For those with high-risk appetite only, we think she's worth a swing at 50/1 with the two bookmakers offering three-place terms in the antepost market for the more prestigious race.

Rationale:

• Fifth in Ascot Gold Cup just a neck behind Al Riffa, and ahead of smart stayers Carmers, Al Nayyir, Rahiebb, Dubai Future, Furthur and Caballo de Mar;

  
  

• Showed trajectory of continuous improvement last year, and that has continued in her three runs this year: fillies "on the up" should never be underestimated;

  
  

• Working well in first-time blinkers, which she is expected to keep for her next race;

  
  

• Course form: ready winner of her only start at Goodwood;

  
  

• Stable are "leaning towards" letting her take her chance in the Goodwood Cup, for all that a final decision has NOT been made;

• Doubts over several in Cup field: Rahiebb has to prove that his flop last time was indeed just due to the trip (and that he is over those exertions); the connections of Lazy Griff have expressed ground concerns and are hoping for the taps to be liberally opened, Illinois has surely been overraced this season and would not be a certain runner anyhow, while Amiloc has yet to return to his best this season.

Quite clearly, this filly has close to zero chance of beating the big two (Scandinavia and Trawlerman) if they run their best race. But is there not a chance that their titanic struggle up the Ascot straight will have left their mark on at least one of the pair? The latter in particular came to that race on a rather rushed preparation, and regression is a perfectly conceivable scenario.

In summary, we have been drawn to a wager on this still unexposed, improving filly as we believe she has not that much to find with most of this field, many of whom have significant questions to answer. And we really like the "improving filly" angle at a course where Miss Alpilles has won comfortably on her only visit.

But as there is a distinct possibility that Ed Walker's filly will bypass the race at the final declaration stage on Sunday, please do embark upon this wager (if you choose to at all) with your eyes wide open!

Recommendation: Back Miss Alpilles each-way on 3-place terms at 50/1 to win the Goodwood Cup at Goodwood racecourse on Tuesday 28 July. This price and 3-place terms are only available with William Hill and Boylesports. Take no lower than 40/1.