Mile Championship: Wrong favourite, surely

There's a new rising force in the miling division in Europe. A real good 'un, rated 125p by Timeform despite not having seen a racecourse until March this year.

He might just be the best turf miler in the world.

Just the five runs, but a scary trajectory of improvement. He should be unbeaten, and would be but for a two-furlong period of incarceration during the Prix Messidor at Chantilly two races back, where he simply couldn't get out of a rail pocket. And he then racked up a very impressive win in the G1 Prix du Moulin on his most recent racecourse visit, his first attempt at Group 1 level.

We're talking about Francis-Henri Graffard's Erdenali, who is 5/1 with one bookmaker (or 9/2 with the only other to price the race up) for Japan's Mile Championship, a Group 1 turf race over eight furlongs in a little less than a fortnight's time.

We think he should be favourite for the race. He's the top-rated horse after all (Timeform, RPRs), could still have improvement in him, and must have a big chance of landing this big prize. Surely far greater than the current odds imply.

Apart from anything else, Japan's mile division lacks depth at the top with the retirement last year of the classy Jantar Mantar and Soul Rush. The current favourite for the Mile Championship, Embroidery (best price 9/4), is a good filly to be sure but we wouldn't regard her as a worldbeater. When winning her third Group 1 in May (Victory Mile, Tokyo), she only beat the same horse she had vanquished a month earlier. As for the deepest race she has contested, the Hong Kong Mile last December, this resulted in an 11th place finish. Perhaps it was the travel, perhaps it wasn't. But we think she's eminently beatable by an on-song Erdenali. Who we would make clear favourite.

Third favourite Rodeo Drive we have some sort of handle on as he was a nose in front of Ask Ikigomi in the NHK Mile Cup back in May, and the runner-up ran an honourable fifth in the Breeders Cup Mile. Talented, no doubt, but Erdenali would surely have been contesting favouritism for that BC Mile. What's more, Rodeo Drive has been beaten since.

The only other horse in single figures, fourth favourite Gaia Force, contested the Dubai Turf back in March, but was unable to beat Quddwah, Andreas Vesalius, Make Me King or Dividend, let alone the winner Ombudsman. And while he was back on track when a close second to Sixpence in June, that horse sank without trace when taking on top European competition in the G1 Jacques Le Marois in August (as some of our followers will recall all too well).

So in short, we think the best European miler in training (our view, Timeform's view) will have too many guns for a talented Japanese filly who has never faced a competitor like Erdenali before. We don't believe 5/1 comes close to reflecting his chances of victory.

Not much point wasting each-way money on this fellow, as there is always there chance of a misfire after travelling half way around the world. Win only.

Recommendation: Back Erdenali win only @5/1 with Unibet to win the Mile Championship at Tokyo racecourse on Sunday 22 October. The 9/2 with Bet365 is also highly attractive. When they both cut (which they inevitably will in this illiquid market), 4/1 would be appealing too. Even 7/2 would be very fair.