Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf: Our tails are wagging at 33/1

The European raiding party for Friday's final Breeders Cup juvenile race looks good but not stellar. We doubt there's a Gstaad in here. That's one reason why we wrote our article about How's Al Today a month or so ago. Of the O'Brien (Sr. and Jr.) trio that dominate the front of the market, the short prices on offer don't really do it for us:

• Great Barrier Reef (3/1) follows in Gstaad's footsteps in having won the G2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot but has nothing like that one's clutch of stellar Group 1 performances since. For good measure, he's hung out widest of all in stall 14.

  
  

• Folsom Blues (3/1) looked the business in the National Stakes but that was on yielding turf. He wasn't quite so good in the G1 Jean-Luc Lagardere. What's more, he too has a wide draw and will need plenty of luck in running with his hold-up style.

  
  

• Haffner (4/1) is being heavily backed at the time of writing but hasn't been running against the best around. Still, at least he's drawn well. A player, but a skinny price.

The O'Brien we want to add to our Breeders Cup portfolio from this race is the outsider of the lot, namely Man's Best Friend, who is trading at massive 33/1.

It's a fairly simple rationale, in which the overriding factor is clearly the price:

• Win in the G2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood needs marking up way beyond the actual margin of victory and the opposition he faced. Repeated denied a run for about a furlong at a crucial stage.

• Flop in G1 Prix Morny the only time he has raced on rain-softened ground; we are happy to throw that out.

  
  

• Only 1.75 lengths behind likely race favourite Folsom Blues in the Jean-Luc Lagardere, having not got a clear run at a crucial stage. We believe he would have finished closer.

  
  

• No Nay Never colt out of a Galileo mare who was at her best up to 12 furlongs; the step up to the mile for the first time is an angle we like.

Man's Best Friend is not well drawn and does not deserve to be a short price in this race. But 33/1 grossly underestimates his ability and his chances of taking a front-four placing.

We're putting our faith in this dog to a big 'un.

Recommendation: Back Man's Best Friend @ 33/1 on four-place each-way terms for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland (2135 UK time, Friday 30 October). Price and terms available with Paddy Power, Skybet, Betfair Sportbook. Next best is Bet365's 28/1 on four-place terms, or the various houses offering 33/1 with three-place terms.