Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies: Walsh filly an emphatically good bet at 5/1

Unlike the Breeders Cup juvenile turf races, where field clarity is unlikely to come before pre-entries are revealed in just over two weeks' time, the juvenile dirt races are now taking clear shape following several key races over the weekend just past.

We are keen on a winner of one of those weekend preps, namely Brendan Walsh's Emphatic, who can still be backed for the Breeders Cup Juveniles Fillies (8.5 furlongs) at 5/1. We expect her to vie for favouritism for this race on 30 October at the very least and start considerably shorter than that price.

Our detailed rationale is as follows:

• Emphatic has had three starts and has recorded three wins, taking big form and class leaps on each occasion (maiden special weight, listed stakes, Grade 1);

  
  

• Her speed progression parallels this form development, with this daughter of Nyquist having been assigned Beyer speed figures of 76-83-95 for her three runs. The latter figure (gained on Saturday) is the highest figure recorded by a juvenile dirt filly over a distance in excess of 7 furlongs in the US this year. Indeed, it's rare for a "route" filly to have recorded such a high figure by the point of the year generally;

  
  

• Saturday's victory came in the G1 Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland, in other words the very course and distance of the BC Juvenile Filles. The Alcibiades has provided the winner of the latter in two of the last four years, including when the Breeders Cup was last held at Keeneland;

  
  

• Current race favourite Miss Monica (9/4) has yet to go further than 7 furlongs or tackle a two-turn configuration, has not recorded a speed figure close to that notched up by Emphatic on Saturday, and will have to travel out of California for an "away fixture" in the Breeders Cup. In short, the Baffert premium built into this price is not appealing against two rivals (see below for the other) who have run much faster;

  
  

• As well as being run in wickedly fast time (the second fastest running this century), the Alcibiades Stakes also required Emphatic to take on a serious rival, as the runner-up was Summer Starlet was vying for BC favouritism prior to the Alcibiades and started Saturday's race at 4/5. The pair finished a country mile clear of the third horse home;
  

• While Summer Starlet did have some trouble in the race (clipped heels, briefly lost momentum), we would be doubtful about her reversing the form, as she was beaten by more than the ground she lost and was clearly repelled in the final half furlong. We do consider her to be Emphatic's main rival come 30 October but are surprised the market continues to make her a shorter price for Breeders Cup victory;

  
  

• Emphatic has a versatile running style. She seized control of the Alcibiades early and led the whole way, whereas in her first two runs she stalked the pace and pounced. This will be a valuable tactical asset come 30 October, as Miss Monica will almost certainly try to make all and Emphatic is in no way reliant on beating her to the first turn.

In summary, we think this brilliant (and eye-catchingly fast) winner of the key prep over precisely the track and distance of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies has a huge chance to win the big race on 30 October – a chance that 5/1 does not respect.

The equivalent place part of an e/w bet (even money) is also attractive, as Emphatic's chance of placing looks way in excess of that probability and this race tends to attract relatively small field (average of less than 10 over the last decade; on two occasions it has attracted fewer than 8 runners). We will therefore take that approach to the wager.

Recommendation: Back Emphatic each-way at 5/1 to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland racecourse on Friday 30 October. Price available with William Hill, Paddy Power, Skybet, and Betfair Sportsbook. The only slightly lower 9/2 offered by Bet365 or Unibet is also just fine.