Churchill Downs Stakes: Difficult to imagine a more misguided price

This is a flash article due to the limited window of opportunity.

When The AntePoster saw the declarations for the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard, he was was excited to see one of the world's best dirt sprinters entered. He assumed this horse would be vying for favouritism with Knightsbridge (see below).

But the jaw dropped when seeing that said sprinter, Imagination, is priced up at 10/1 for the tenth race on Saturday night's Kentucky Derby card at Churchill Downs.

Brilliant winner of the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship last September ("won going away"). Excellent second to the world's no. 1 dirt sprinter – Bentornato – in the Breeders Cup Sprint last November. And superb winner of the Grade 2 Riyadh Dirt Sprint in mid-February, in which he had a terrible start to the race (badly hampered) and had no right to be first past the wire after that incident.

Bob Baffert's 5-year old is at his peak now, both in terms of age and form curve. He is a completely transformed animal since connections gave up trying to make him last out over distances as long as nine furlongs, which just didn't see this horse at his best. But stretching out from six furlongs (the distance of his last three starts) to seven furlongs in this race should be no problem at all for this closing sprinter, who has actually won over as far as 8.5 furlongs. The outstanding Flavien Prat takes the ride.

If Knightsbridge runs back to the towering 112 Beyer speed figure he was awarded for his last run in the Gulfstream Park Mile – the highest figure recorded by any horse in the US this year – he will be very, very difficult to beat. But there plenty of grounds for scepticism at 13/8. His last four wins have comes against deeply inferior opposition (The AntePoster reckons there are half a dozen horses in this field who are better than any horse that ran behind Knightsbridge in those races), and the gaudy Beyer figure he earned in his last run (only a Grade 3, this is a Grade 1, nota bene) was in a field of precisely five, where the jockey could work out pretty much whatever trip he wanted. This race will be a different ballgame altogether.

We will play Imagination each-way as it's possible he loses to Knightsbridge (or indeed another horse) on Saturday, whereas our value range for him being placed – firmly in odds-on territory – is nothing like the effective 2/1 on offer for the place part of this bet.

This market is non-runner-money-back (NRMB) so there is no ante-post risk.

Recommendation for Churchill Downs Stakes, race 10, 21:50, Saturday 2 May 2026 (price at time of writing only available in"International NRMB" section of B365's antepost betting offer area, that will change in next 24 hours or so)

Back Imagination each-way at 10/1 with Bet365. Anything down to 8/1 is terrific value for same approach. Below that go win only if 6/1 or higher remains available.