2000 Guineas: Chaos reigns, so take exciting French colt at 66/1

An almighty mess, this 2000 Guineas. We tragically lost the best two-year-old (official European handicappers' view, not ours) two weeks ago when Gewan succumbed to a freak accident on the gallops. We were then robbed of the participation of co-favourite Publish just a few days later due to a minor injury.

On top of these defections comes pure chaos from the powerful stables:

Ballydoyle, probably still the most powerful training operation in the world, has sent out any number of mixed messages:

Gstaad, who we believe boasts the best body of form of any juvenile in 2025, appeared to be the stable's number one back in January, but bizarrely appears to be now headed to France. He also won't have had a run if he does turn up, which is offputting (see below). Albert Einstein, resurrected as the "chosen one" in a media day a month ago, has since blown out in an Irish prep run, and may or may not redeem himself in the Greenham stakes at Newbury on Saturday. Puerto Rico, long assumed to be the colt earmarked for the French Guineas given his Gallic exploits at the backend of last season and affinity for easier ground, has suddenly emerged as the shortest-priced stable runner. But with no run in his legs this year, he will go to the Rowley Mile (if at all) fresh, a modus operandi that used to work for Aidan O'Brien but has failed spectacularly in recent years.

Godolphin, the go-to operation for recent Guineas success, also been struggling to identify its best candidate. Craven favourite Hidden Force disappointed yesterday and is no longer under consideration for the Guineas. The exciting Talk Of New York couldn't tick the UAE Guineas box that was comprehensively checked off by last year's Guineas hero Ruling Court, and is doubtful for the race after recently winning a humble conditions race. Kings Trial has won two races at Kempton – less impressively than Talk Of New York at the same venue, never mind when compared to the sectionals of 2024 winner Notable Speech – and has advanced to fifth favourite in the betting off a racecourse gallop. Which probably leaves Distant Storm as the stable number one choice of William Buick off a gallop and a Dewhurst third. Maybe he's the one. But it's not a profile to leave potential rivals trembling.

Given this less than thrilling narrative at the top of the market, why not take a flyer? Hardly a vintage Craven yesterday, but why not the Gosdens' Oxagon at 20/1 in an open year? Perhaps there's a case for Avicenna at the same price for Roger Varian, although the staying-on Craven runner-up is under consideration for Longchamp a week later, so you could get a non-starter there. Then there's the superb juvenile Zavateri, due to clash with Albert Einstein in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury on Saturday. Recent newsflow was that he would skip the English Guineas for the Irish equivalent, not least as he patently struggled on the undulations of Newmarket when labouring to fourth in the Dewhurst. But if he wins the Greenham impressively in an open year, surely Eve Johnson Houghton will roll the dice?

So many questions.

Our answer at this point would be to go to the new power in the European flat racing training ranks, Francis-Henri Graffard, who – per the Stable Tour by At The Races yesterday – intends to run his colt Samangan, who can be backed at 66/1. That'll do for us.

What exacly did Graffard say in this Stable Tour?

"Samangan came out of his race really well. I still have to talk to Princess Zahra and Nemone but my aim is to go with him to the 2000 Guineas in Newmarket. He is an absolutely beautiful horse. He has strengthened over the winter; he is relaxed and the only question mark with him is if he will stay the Rowley Mile trip. He ran well the other day, and I think that he can improve from that run and that is why I would like to give it a try. He is a good ground horse."

There are doubts for sure: stamina as per Graffard's comment above (colt out of Blue Point, but considerable encouragement on the dam side), and the lack of certain participation is another risk factor (conversation with owner and racing manager clearly needs to be had), but there's no doubting Graffard's enthusiasm for this colt. Samangan's comeback run when second in the Prix Djebel (which has thrown up numerous Group 1 winners over the years) was highly promising in view of likely improvement of the stable's 3yos from their first run.

But is he really good enough, we hear you ask? We don't know. But if he's good enough for Graffard in a chaotic year, he's good enough for us. More to the point, that Samangan might not be good enough is more than generously factored into his extreme price.

Alternatively, how about a ratings comparison, say a head-to-head with the favourite?

In the red, white and blue corner, your 3/1 favourite Bow Echo. In the blue, white and red corner (sorry, similar flags), your 66/1 shot Samangan:

Timeform: Bow Echo 111p, Samangan 110

Racing Post Ratings: Bow Echo 111, Samangan 108

A lack of newsflow over this colt and his uncertain prospects of travelling to England until today have inflated his price beyond anything reasonable.

We are recommending an each-way wager on Samangan even though four places are a nigh certainty come the day, as we expect Graffard's colt to be less than a third of the current price in two weeks's time (at best).

Recommendation for the 2000 Guineas, Newmarket, 2 May 2026

Back Samangan each-way at 66/1 with Bet365. The 50/1 with Unibet, BetMGM and Virginbet is excellent too. The generally available 40/1 is still worth a pop.