Arc favourite looks potentially vulnerable in Niel

For any punter, let alone those of an antepost persuasion, the coming weekend of 14/15 September offers a truly daunting smorgasbord of top-level flat racing. The race cards are stacked at The Curragh and Leopardstown for Irish Champions Weekend, the St Leger is the headline act but just one of numerous stakes races playing out at Doncaster, while on the other side of La Manche there are the traditional trio of Arc trials in Paris, which this year look to be the strongest in quite a while.

One of the most intriguing of those looks to be the Prix Niel at Longchamp, where the Arc favourite (Look de Vega) is set to clash with the second favourite for the same race (Sosie), although at the time of writing it was far from clear what else might be lining up.

The returning Prix du Jockey Club champ has had quite a layoff and is unlikely to be fully cranked up when the gates open on Sunday afternoon. But an even more interesting angle is the ground. By this stage in his career, last year’s Arc favourite and subsequent winner Ace Impact was proven on fast and soft ground. By contrast, Look de Vega is not. Indeed, his three-for-three record has been compiled on ground variously (or actually not that variously) recorded as “Very Soft”, “Very Soft”, and “Heavy”. In short, the wet spring of last year and equally wet spring of 2024 appeared to suit this son of Lope de Vega handsomely.

And with this week looking set to be almost bone-dry in Paris – inserting the caveat that northern European weather appears to have become more unpredictable than ever, so things may yet change and render this article redundant – punters might want to consider taking on Look de Vega given his likely market position as short-priced favourite.  If the forecast holds, the Anteposter almost certainly will.

If Look de Vega is defeated this weekend, it will of course only be one battle lost, and the result may have little bearing on his chances of “winning the war” on the first Sunday in October, where softer underfoot conditions are far more likely. Indeed, the bookmaking community may well overreact as they crown a new favourite, in which case another contrarian betting opportunity may present itself. Fingers at the ready...

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Watch: Look de Vega's impressive win at the French Derby - but will he find faster conditions as suitable in the Prix Niel