Three Arc outsiders to keep you warm as the days shorten

There are just four weeks to go until Europe’s most prestigious flat race takes place in the south-west corner of the Bois de Boulogne in Paris. The top of the Arc market has been fairly static for a while now, but The Anteposter’s eye has been drawn to three large-price outsiders who have at least a squeak of upsetting the applecart.

Mqse de Sevigny (40-1, Hills, 888): It’s quite unusual for a mare who has just won three G1 races on the trot, and five in total, to be such a huge price for the biggest European race of them all. Particularly when she is trained by one A. Fabre – yes, that would indeed be the same A. Fabre who has won France’s most famous race no less than eight times. Recent form analysis probably explains why – she has beaten nothing of quality in her last two races, and she didn’t beat those rivals by far, never winning by more than a length. But according to her trainer that’s just the way she runs, and the plot to step her up to 12 furlongs for her final race before the breeding sheds beckon was hatched many moons ago. Her beating of Horizon d’Ore in the Prix d’Ispahan gives a clear pointer as to her class level, and for good measure this mare couldn’t care less what the ground does.  Make no mistake, this lady is a player.  What on earth is the market thinking?

Zarakem (66-1, Hills, 888): Bettors tend not to like blowout defeats on a horse’s CV.  This fellow has had two of them his last four races, most recently behind City of Troy in the Juddmonte International at York.  Perhaps it was this second experience of fast ground that he didn’t like. He seemed just fine on it when an excellent second behind Auguste Rodin in the Prince of Wales at Ascot in June, but perhaps York “G/F” was a different kettle of fish altogether? Another interesting angle here is the trainer’s view expressed in a recent interview: “I think he was ridden too prominently at York and he was too keen,” [says Reynier]. “In the Arc, we’ll wait at the back, try to get him relaxed and try to run like he did at Royal Ascot.” Autumn ground will suit this son of Zarak just fine, and a rebound is surely possible.  In this game it can often pay to forgive, and to go 66-1 is a very bold call by the bookies.

Haya Zark (100-1, Sky, 888): Just occasionally, the fortnight leading up to the first Sunday in October sees the French capital take an absolute dousing. And when it’s hock deep, some horses grow a leg.  The mare Solemia is the most famous example of the current millennium, taking full advantage and shattering Japanese dreams when running down the outstanding Orfevre in the mud back in 2008.  Mud is what Haya Zark needs. A Group 1 winner earlier this season, Haya Zark has seriously improved, and the return run after a mid-season break in a Group 3 at Longchamp on September 8 was perfectly respectable (stayed on to finish a close second as the post loomed, was giving away half a stone to the field). In short, if it turns into a slog in a bog this lad has a real shout of getting a piece of it. That said, feel free to dispose of your betting slip in advance of the gates opening should it come up dry.

Haya Zark / Scoopdyga