Breeders Cup Dirt Mile: Lion King ready to roar as Post Time approaches

The normal response when the leading players in an antepost market fall by the wayside is for the other horses in the race to shorten. But when it was announced late last night (UK time) that favourite National Treasure and stablemate Fort Bragg would bypass the race, a few interesting contenders did not contract at all.

The AntePoster immediately tweeted the likelihood of three horses shortening for this race: Mufasa @8/1, Skippylongstocking @14/1, and Post Time @25/1.  The curious feature of this market almost 24 hours on is that these horses are all still available at those prices with Skybet, whose trading team have clearly been given the weekend off (National Treasure still quoted as favourite).

So time for an article to reiterate that this incompetence should be exploited.

As per the tweet on X, The AntePoster is iffy about Skippylongstocking, but not about his price. As a trading play, 14/1 is attractive for a win bet for those who play the exchanges and can hedge later.

The “Lion King” from Chile, Mufasa, deserves to be much shorter in the betting after a dominant display in the G1 Vosburgh. This is a two-turn mile, so a different test, but he’s a real threat. Win only.

But perhaps the most fun wager here, in a race still loaded with front-end speed, is Post Time. Brittany Russell’s son of Frosted has a late-running style that could just be the perfect fit for this race, and a two-turn mile is what he wants. He's grossly overpriced at 25/1, which appeals as a terrific each-way play.

Recommendation: Back Post Time each-way @25/1 with Skybet. Back Mufasa win only, @8/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power.

[Skippylongstocking recommended @14/1 with SkyBet for exchange-hedging bettors only]