Breeders Cup Distaff and Dirt Mile: Two antepost pricing errors ripe for exploitation

It's difficult for bookmakers to keep up with developments for all the fields of all 13 Breeders Cup markets. That's a lot of races.

That said, the turf fields and juvenile fields on both surfaces are not even close to being set, so they are something of a minefield for the antepost punter. In particular, big decisions not yet made in County Tipperary (Aidan O'Brien) and County Suffolk (Charlie Appleby, Gosdens) will have a huge part to play in shaping bettings markets for races on the grass at Del Mar.

Things are different on the dirt. Other than for the juvenile races, the fields are starting to take very clear shape here, and one market in particular – that for the Breeders Cup Classic itself – looks unlikely to change significantly over the next few weeks, bar the odd participation decision to be made by connections of certain outsiders. But of particular interest from a wagering perspective at the time of writing are two of the three other dirt race markets on the Saturday of the card, namely the Distaff, the Sprint, and the Dirt Mile. Here there is a degree of clarity stateside over who the favourites are going to be, yet in two particular cases – the Distaff and the Dirt Mile – European bookmakers have not yet got the right end of this stick.

The AntePoster believes two horses stand out. Dirt Mile This race appeals strongly as the antepost market is stuffed full of impossible or doubtful runners. Namely:

• Raging Torrent has been retired following injury;

• Patch Adams is still in play for the Sprint (although The AntePoster does expect him to run in this spot);

• Locked is also under consideration for the Classic;

• Mindframe, Journalism and Antiquarian are nigh certainties for the Classic;

• Book 'Em Danno is bypassing the Breeders Cup meet altogether.

That's a mighty chunk of the market. Against this backdrop, the likely short-priced favourite come the first Saturday in November is Bob Baffert's Nysos, whose career figures read 111211. The only blemish on that record is a short-head defeat to the above-mentioned Mindframe, who would be vying with Nysos for favouritism in this spot were he not contesting the Classic. The AntePoster can readily see Nysos going off at 5/2 for this race if he makes the gate, whereas William Hill are offering 6/1.

However, question marks swirl over this fellow. He had a serious injury last year that kept him off the Kentucky Derby trail, has not raced since July, missed an intended start in the G1 Pacific Classic in August due to a foot bruise, and while Baffert has made it clear that the Dirt Mile is the intended target for now, he "reserves the right" to change his mind and send him to the Sprint instead. This is too risky a play for us to recommend this far out (for all that the author has taken that risk).

The clear mispricing anomaly in this market – with fewer of the swirling doubts – is FULL SERRANO, who can currently be backed at 10/1. This colt is 3 for 3 over a mile at Del Mar, including a is brilliant win in this very race last year at the same track, but also a field-blitzing stroll on his seasonal debut in early September – in a time even faster than he managed at the Breeders Cup last November. Full Serrano has been pushed out to his current price by William Hill and Unibet after finishing second last time out.

This looks a strange over-reaction: that defeat came in the Goodwood Stakes at a different track (Santa Anita, where both the atmosphere and the dirt surface is climactically different), as well as over a different trip (nine furlongs, a trip that stretches his stamina). With the Breeders Cup once again at Del Mar, a track for which he has such a tremendous affinity, Full Serrano looks to have a good chance of retaining his crown, along with an outstanding chance of placing. The each-way angle appeals.

Distaff

Bookmakers generally have failed to keep up with the development of the weekend. The two previous antepost favourites for this race, 2024 Horse Of The Year Thorpedo Anna and Nitrogen, both disappointed in the G1 Spinster Stakes. The former fell in a hole as the field approached the final bend and finished fourth of five, beaten almost eight lengths. Retirement looks the most likely option, but even if she were to turn out again in 24 days' time she would look extremely vulnerable. Nitrogen, meanwhile, failed to beat the front-running 18/1 shot Gin Gin and finished only 1.5 lengths ahead of the exposed Scylla, who has no pretentions of winning a Distaff.

Given this development, the market looks very wrong. The two horses likely to vie for favouritism in this race and with the most obvious win chances on the first Saturday of November are both sitting in Bob Baffert's barn, not far north of Del Mar:

The AntePoster wrote an article recommending a wager on SEISMIC BEAUTY at 9/1 a while back and is bewildered she is still trading at 8/1. Expect this filly to be trading somewhere in the region of 5/2 – 7/2 on the day. She is still a cracking bet and possesses by far the best speed figure of any Distaff-hopeful filly to have run in the US this year. Huge win chance.

We would nonetheless now urge adding CAVALIERI to the portfolio at 5/1. This filly is unbeaten, a Grade 1 winner already, and an impressive winner of the G2 Zenyatta Stakes on her return from a break last month, despite having stumbled at the start. She too has run speed figures that top anything that Nitrogen or Thorpedo Anna can show this year, albeit not at a level recorded by her stablemate.

Cavalieri could well vie for favouritism with Seismic Beauty, and we can't call which of Baffert's fillies will go of as the "chalk", as the Americans say. But unlike the former, who has a flashy brilliance that leans us towards a win-only play, Cavalieri looks to have a more stamina-laden stalking style, so here we are attracted to the each-way angle. It would surprise us if she were not placed. The same is not true, ironically, of Seismic Beauty who we see as the likeliest winner but with possible blowout potential.

Recommendations (all at Del Mar, 1 November):

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile Back Full Serrano (each-way) at 10/1 with William Hill or Unibet. The 8/1 with Paddy Power and Skybet also looks reasonable value.

Breeders Cup Distaff

Back Cavalieri (each-way) at 5/1 with Paddy Power or Skybet to win the Breeders Cup Distaff at Del Mar on 1 November. Once gone, 9/2 is acceptable, but 4/1 (no lower) would be just a win bet.

Previously recommended for the Distaff: Seismic Beauty (win only) at 9/1. The 8/1 still available with Paddy Power and Skybet remains outstanding value.