Breeders Cup Distaff - Final Field Analysis

Date of race: 2 November 2024                   Date of analysis: 29 October 2024

The AntePoster  |  29 October 2024

THORPEDO ANNA (Tr. K McPeek)  |  Last 5 runs: 11121  |   Draw: 2 of 10

It’s been years since a US dirt filly made quite such a splash in her three-year-old season. A wide-margin win in G2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn teed this daughter of Fast Anna up for a similarly dominant victory in the Kentucky Oaks followed by a trio of stunning performances at Saratoga over the summer: two more effortless G1 victories against her own gender then a giant effort against leading three-year-old colt Fierceness, just failing to reel him in in the last half furlong of the Travers Stakes. For once she looked less than dominant last time out back against her own gender in the G1 Cotillion at Parx. That was a regression on both the eye and on speed figures (though it is possible the assigned Travers figure were bloated), but it is equally possible that she will bounce back to her best with a longer break behind her, and trainer Ken McPeek is bullish (although he usually is). Either way, the withdrawal of Idiomatic due to injury makes her the heavy favourite to cap an outstanding season with another big win. Has drawn just fine.

Betting observations

Not at her best in her last race, so while she looks to be by far the most likely winner here, it would be a bold wager at 8/13. The AntePoster never advises betting at odds-on.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
8/13	4/5	★★

AWESOME RESULT (Tr. Y Ikee)  |  Last 5 runs: 11-111  |   Draw: 9 of 10

Four-year-old daughter of Justify who comes here with a record of seven wins from seven runs, all of which have been either over this distance of 9 furlongs or further. In her most recent run, the G3 Breeders Dirt Cup at Mombetsu, she ran out an effortless five-length winner, cruising to the lead three furlongs out with minimal urging and putting five lengths between herself and Delicada, who went on to win a USD 130,00 prize next time out. Trainer Yasutoshi Ikee has expressed some reservations about the long flight over, as well the likelihood of Awesome Result facing a faster pace than she is used to. However, this filly looks much more of a threat than Marche Lorraine, who took this race for Japan when the Breeders Cup was last held at Del Mar in 2021. Perhaps the most likely threat to the favourite. Drawn wide, but it’s not a full field, so that’s not insurmountable.

Betting observations

A completely unknown quantity who might not be up to defeating the superstar favourite in this race. But as an unbeaten filly from a country that won this race the last time the Breeders Cup was held at Del Mar, she appeals as an upset play, despite having halved in price since The AntePoster first recommended wagering on her at 14/1 a month ago. 7/1 is still too big now that Idiomatic has been withdrawn.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
7/1	4/1	★★★★

RAGING SEA (Tr. C Brown)  |  Last 5 runs: 14111  |   Draw: 6 of 10

Daughter of Curlin with an excellent strike rate, having won seven of her 12 races. This filly’s greatest hour came when taking the G1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga in August, when she stayed well off a blistering pace and picked up tiring leader Idiomatic in the shadow of the post. Last time out she had a less favourable setup and rather struggled to beat the humbly-rated Batucuda (reopposes here), but has now had a longer break and returns to a race constellation in which the strong pace she prefers is likely to materalize. Really strong candidate for the podium, but likely needs the favourite to underperform for the win. Drawn fine.

Betting observations

With all the money coming for Thorpedo Anna, this likeable filly on a winning streak is as big as 7/1, which is a generous each-way price. Given her connections (Chad Brown/Flavien Prat) she will surely start shorter and appeals as a solid each-way play.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
7/1	7/2	★★★★

SUGAR FISH (Tr. J Mullins)  |  Last 5 runs: 11161  |   Draw: 3 of 10

Three-year-old daughter of Accelerate who embarked on an impressively upward form trajectory in the first half of 2024, culminating in a wide-margin victory in the G2 Summertime Oaks at Santa Anita. However, was a well-beaten sixth behind the high-class Adare Manor in the G1 Clement L. Hirsch in early August. Back on track last time by winning the G2 Zenyatta, but the favourite for that race had been scratched and the second stumbled in running, so the form looks well short of what is needed to be competitive here. Likeable filly at her level but in too deep.

Betting observations

There’s too much strength at the top of the betting of this race to fancy this outsider, who has no G1 credentials, doesn’t look fast enough on speed figures, and has a poor record at Del Mar for good measure (two races, unplaced on both occasions).

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
14/1	20/1	★

CANDIED (Tr. T Pletcher)  |  Last 5 runs: 41223  |   Draw: 1 of 10

Not far off the best of her generation as a two-year-old (beaten just 0.75 lengths in the Breeders Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita last year). Started her three-year-old season in the Kentucky Oaks, where she finished a respectable fourth in the circumstances (had no prep run), then followed this up with three good runs over the summer: facile win against lesser in a listed race at Monmouth Park, 4.5 lengths second to Thorpedo Anna in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga, then an unlucky second (dwelt at start, bumped in running) to Power Squeeze when favourite for the G1 Alabama at the same venue. Thrashed by the now retired Idiomatic in the G1 Spinster last time out, but the decision to ride her forward in that race was alien to this filly’s normal running style, so she may well be better than that bare result. A mountain to find to win this, but no surprise to see her run well from off the pace.

Betting observations

Has an impressive strike rate when it comes to placing in G1 races, so could run well here if reverting to her preferred closing style. This is the toughest ask of her career to date, however, so she doesn’t stand out as a bet.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
25/1	15/1	★★★

ALICE VERITE (Tr. K Nakatake)  |  Last 5 runs: 20-110  |   Draw: 4 of 10

Four-year-old daughter of Kizuna who appears to have peaked this year, winning the G3 Mermaid Stakes at Kyoto racecourse in June. Ambitious connections originally pointed her to the Filly & Mare Turf, where she looked an unlikely winner, but she is now contesting this race on dirt, a surface she has never run on. No chance whatsoever.

Betting observations

No appeal at any price.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
40/1	30/1	★

BATUCADA (Tr. S Joseph Jr)|  Last 5 runs: 1672  |   Draw: 3 of 10

Four-year-old daughter of Union Rags who showed nothing in the first 12 races of her career that would give her a right to run in a race this deep, let alone be competitive. However, ran the race of her life last time out at 22/1 in the G1 Beldame at Aqueduct, forcing the much classier Raging Sea (1/10 favourite) to pull out all the stops to beat her by a short head. On the bare form that puts in the mix for a place here, but it seems highly likely that Raging Sea regressed in that race due to a combination of a weak pace and a monstrous effort in her prior race when winning the G1 Personal Ensign. Doubtful that Batucada can run that rival close again in a bigger field with a stronger pace.

Betting observations

Would have a podium shout if her last race were “for real”, but that Beldame runner-up result is a huge outlier on her resume, and The AntePoster is sceptical of a repeat. Little appeal despite the huge price.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
40/1	20/1	★★

HONOR D LADY (Tr. S Joseph Jr)  |  Last 5 runs: 19215  |   Draw: 7 of 10

Four-year old daughter of Honor Code who has been impressively consistent for most of her 14-race career, winning and placing in a number of G3 races and running out a good winner of the G2 Delaware Handicap in August. However, on the two occasions she has stepped into Grade 1 company things have unravelled badly – she was beaten almost 20 lengths by Adare Manor in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn in April, and was a similar distance behind Idiomatic last time out in the Spinster. Unraced on the West Coast, and difficult to see her contending against the deepest G1 field she has ever faced.

Betting observations

For all that a repeat of her Delaware victory gives her a squeak of placing, she doesn’t appeal as a bet.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
50/1	30/1	★★

MISS NEW YORK (Tr. J Delgado)  |  Last 5 runs: 68-511  |   Draw: 8 of 10

A nice filly at her level, but that level equates to minor stakes races, and she was beaten 17 lengths the only time she has dipped her toe into graded company (G3 Monmouth Oaks). Not a prayer in this company.

Betting observations

No appeal.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
50/1	20/1	★

CHE EVASORA (Tr. P D’Amato)  |  Last 5 runs: 3415  |   Draw: 10 of 10

Qualified for an all-expenses-paid berth in this race by virtue of winning the G1 Gran Premio Criadores in her native Argentina back in May. However, she won that relatively weak race as a rank outsider (57/1), and her first start in the US in September – by this point under the care of Californian trainer Phil D’Amato – saw her finish fifth of five behind Sugar Fish in the G2 Zenyatta Stakes, beaten almost 30 lengths. Possible she is better than that, but perhaps more probable that she isn’t. 

Betting observations

Makes little appeal on her win at Palermo racetrack in Argentina, and even less after her wretched US debut. No betting appeal.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
66/1	30/1	★

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