Breeders Cup Distaff: Plug into earthquake power at 9/1

There was lots of high-class racing in the US for Europeans to enjoy on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Plenty to digest for the antepost punter, and in particular in respect of the repercussions for the Breeders Cup meet at Del Mar in three months' time.

With the corresponding speed figures having emerged over the course of Sunday, it has become apparent that one performance in particular was "off-the-charts" spectacular. Put simply, when measured in terms of the Beyer speed metric it was simply the most impressive performance on the clock of any horse, of any age, of any surface persuasion (turf or dirt) recorded in the US this year over a mile or further.

And no, it was not – as many readers might assume – the impressive effort by Breeders Cup Classic champion Sierra Leone in winning the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga. Make no mistake, that was a proper performance, making the 9/1 (available at the time of writing with Virginbet and MGM Bet) for this horse's defence of his Classic crown look eye-catchingly attractive, and unlikely to last until the corresponding head traders return to their desks on Monday morning.

No, it was actually in the early hours of Sunday morning that the tectonic shift unfolded. Specifically, Bob Baffert's four-year-old filly Seismic Beauty put in a tour de force performance when winning the G1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at 0232 (UK time) at Del Mar, which is of course the 2025 Breeders Cup venue.

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This daughter of Uncle Mo (out of a Medaglia D'Oro mare) made her debut only last November, and won only one of her four starts over the winter. But those were all over sprint trips – either 6 or 6.5 furlongs – and given her pedigree it was anything but a surprise that she would improve hugely going longer. And so it proved:

• April allowance race at Santa Anita (18 April): blowout 10-length win when stretched out to a mile;

  
  

• G2 Santa Margarita Stakes at Santa Anita (25 May): effortless 5-length victory, earning a huge speed figure (104 Beyer);

  
  

• G1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (2 August): authoritative front-running victory, with an extraordinary speed figure (110 Beyer) unparalleled in the US anywhere this year other than over sprint trips.

The two favourites in the betting market for the Breeders Cup Distaff, Thorpedo Anna and Good Cheer, come with huge risks attached. The former's trainer is keen to have a go at the Breeders Cup Classic against the colts, so may not even run in the Distaff, and in any case her 2025 resume has yet to come anywhere near her top performances last year (Breeders Cup Distaff win at Del Mar, superb second to Fierceness in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga).

Good Cheer meanwhile is taking a break after a hugely disappointing effort last time out. This filly was unbeaten up to that point – doing AntePoster followers a huge favour by winning the Kentucky Oaks at 7/5 having been recommended at 14/1 – but has yet to post a speed figure to suggest she should be favoured over her elders.

In summary, there are still three months to go until the Breeders Cup Distaff and so plenty of water to flow under this bridge, but Seismic Beauty is arguably the horse to beat in this division now. Yet somehow, for a brief window, Bob Baffert's filly is still 9/1 with Bet 365. This looks a steal.

The AntePoster would be very surprised if anything like that price lasted long into Monday morning (article published late on Sunday evening, 3 August).

Recommendation: Back Seismic Beauty (win only) at 9/1 with Bet365 to win the Breeders Cup Distaff at Del Mar on 1 November. The 8/1 with Flutter duo Paddy Power and Skybet also looks good value.