Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf: Take Beauty and Fire

Beauty first...

It seems to be conventional wisdom that while Team USA bosses the dirt races at the Breeders Cup (emphatically true, with just the occasional exception), the Europeans are the kings when it comes to the turf.

There are two BC turf races in which European superiority is incontestable: the Juvenile Turf over a mile, and the eponymous Turf over 12 furlongs. Results over last couple of decades make pretty grim reading for the home team on both counts.

By contrast, the other races on the grass are statistically more difficult to call. And there is surely no better example of a level playing field that the Breeders Filly & Mare Turf, run over a distance that can vary (depending on the venue) between nine and eleven furlongs. Over the last quarter of a century, North America has won 12, Europe has won 12, Japan 1. No statistical edge there for the Old World.

We want to play this year's edition now because we believe North America has been overlooked in the European betting markets. Not that there is any strength in depth here – it's frankly a shocking division. But the Americans have a standout ace to play in this race on 1 November at Del Mar, and we believe that horse is severely overpriced.

The horse in question is She Feels Pretty at 8/1. Our rationale:

1. Form

Career figures are 113132111121. The first blemish "3rd" is a 0.75 length beating in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf two years ago at Santa Anita, where she finished just a head behind the excellent Porta Fortuna. The other "3rd" on the CV was a 0.75-length beating by Cinderella's Dream in the G1 Belmont Oaks in July last year. She has won three Grade 1s in her last four races. Her only defeat in her last six races has been by a head, by a filly who does not reoppose here, in the G1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga this summer.

2. Opposition

The European challenge will be serious as ever but is unlikely to be stellar. Of the first four Europeans in the betting:

- Minnie Hauk (4/1): We seriously doubt this star filly will turn up for this race. She is 2/1 favourite for the Breeders Cup Turf, a much more prestigious and valuable race in which the powerful Ballydoyle Stable do not have another serious contender. We would be shocked if she didn't go there. - Cinderella's Dream (5/1): Godolphin's no. 1 string should have won this last year, but didn't get a clear run when she needed it. Charlie Appleby's filly would be a reasonable favourite…if she hadn't run two poor races consecutively in her last two starts. Questions to answer. - Estrange (8/1): It is farcical that this filly is even quoted for this race. The Breeders Cup this year will be run at Del Mar, Southern California, where the ground is heavily odds to to be fast. Kentucky or New York would potentially be another matter. But we put the percentage chances of this filly turning up in California in three weeks' time at close to zero. - Whirl: (8/1): A credible threat if fit, but this filly was desperately disappointing in the Prix Vermeille on Arc Trials day, and was reported to be on the "easy list" by co-owner Michael Tabor only last weekend, ruling her out of participation in the Arc de Triomphe (the apparent plan, despite her Vermeille flop). Being fit and ready to fire her best for the Breeders Cup must be a question mark.

3. Del Mar

Del Mar’s configuration is exceptional in one respect, namely the length of its final straight. This is extraordinarily short even by American standards: there is less than a furlong-and-a-half from the home turn to the winning post. She Feels Pretty is characterised by excellent tactical speed and a wicked turn of foot. Quite simply, she has the perfect profile for the host venue this year. She has never run at Del Mar, but has run well both times she has shipped to Santa Anita, which also has a short straight.

...then Fire

We do fear one competitor: a European raider who stands out at the prices in a market dominated by fillies who won't be there.

That's See The Fire at 8/1 for Andrew Balding, second in the Prix d'Opera on Arc weekend last time out (we were sceptical about her chances on the soft going, we were wrong, she was a narrowly beaten second).

Her form is muddied up by twice finishing 4.5 lengths behind Ombudsman against the boys in the Prince of Wales Stakes and Juddmonte International Stakes this summer. Don't be fooled: that's top-drawer form in two of the strongest ten-furlong turf faces run anywhere in the world this year. As for the 5-length third to Whirl in the Nassau Stakes, that's a throwout. This was a ludicrous race involving a flag start in which she was beaten not much more than she lost in a farcical start.

See The Fire has a brilliant record on left-handed tracks, prefers the kind of going she will get at Del Mar, and has the profile to go very close in this race. We recommended backing her too at a more than fair price. Win only.

Recommendation:

Back She Feels Pretty (each-way) at 8/1 with Paddy Power, Skybet, Ladbrokes or Coral to win the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Del Mar on Saturday 1 November. 7/1 also acceptable.

Back See The Fire (win only) at 8/1 (generally available at the time of writing, but not B365 or William Hill) in the same race.