Breeders Cup Juvenile: Chancer McPatrick a mystifying 8/1 to prove champion 2-year-old at Del Mar

Three cheers for William Hill, who on this morning of 17 September 2024 became the first bookmaker to price up all the juvenile dirt races for the Breeders Cup meeting to be held at Del Mar on the first weekend of November. Of the five juvenile races, the eponymous Breeders Cup Juvenile itself immediately caught the eye. An hour or two ago, AntePoster immediately flagged up Chancer McPatrick on X (follow us here to never miss out on a gross mispricing event) as a remarkable betting opportunity at 8/1 with Hills. At the time of publication of this article, that price still stands.

Winner of the G1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga in early September, the Chad Brown colt pulled off a remarkable victory in the most unlikely of circumstances, as he gave away at least eight lengths to the leaders following a disastrous gate incident. Jockey Flavien Prat: “I hit the gate, lost my stirrups. It was pretty bad. The first jump he went right into the starting gate. From there, I regrouped. The way he broke, Iost so much ground, I was basically trying to give him a good race and see if he would make a run.”

The AntePoster has no gripe with Jonathan’s Way being made a short price for the Juvenile at Del Mar, as this winner of the G3 Iroquis Stakes last weekend is an exciting prospect. But with Chancer McPatrick running the same speed figure in a Group 1 in adverse circumstances and taking down another of the most exciting horses in this division – Gustavo Delgado’s Ferocious – in the process, the decision by Hills to relegate him to fourth in the betting looks a very strange one. At the very least he has a reasonable claim to co-favouritism.

It is also worth noting Chancer McPatrick’s huge debut speed figure, namely a Beyer of 96. This this is truly elite territory for a juvenile. Given the disastrous start in his next race, a slight regression in the speed figure (88) was only to be expected, but even that is on a par with Jonathan’s Way’s Iroquois romp, and was almost certainly run against steeper competition.

Clearly there is risk attached to betting on the juvenile races now, as there is plenty more water to flow under this antepost bridge before the gates open at Del Mar, not least the key “win and you’re in races” to be held in early October. But as things stand, Chancer McPatrick looks to be as exciting a juvenile prospect as any in the division, and the possibility of him shortening to outright favouritism come November 1 is very real indeed.  The 8/1 is an exciting price at which to get involved.

Chancer McPatrick / Barbara D. Livingston

Published at 14:06 17/09/2024