Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint: Japan sending untested rocket to California

The AntePoster tends not to see sprint races as the best betting mediums. Outcomes are less predictable than races run over further (although this can of course provide betting angles) and horses are more likely to blow their chances at the start. Two-year-old sprint races appeal even less, particularly when there are no clear form lines to provide orientation. So for The AntePoster to recommend two bets for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Del Mar on 1 November is….well, a very strange thing indeed. 

Something exceptional flying in from Japan?

But Ecoro Sieg is worthy of an exception. This son of Twirling Candy appeared first in August, winning at Niigata racecourse by no less than five lengths, setting a time just 0.2 seconds shy of the two-year-old course record. Some debut. But his only other race to date (Nakayama, 21 September) was more remarkable still. Despite breaking slowly, he recorded a startling time of 1:07.02.  Not only did this figure break the 23-year-old juvenile record for that course (by 0.6 seconds), it was also – by 0.3 seconds – the fastest any juvenile has run over six furlongs in Japan since JRA record-keeping began.

Hideyuki Mori – a pioneer of overseas racing, having been the first Japanese trainer to win a European Group 1 (Seeking the Pearl, Prix Maurice de Gheest, 1998) – is intent on bringing this juvenile rocket to the Breeders Cup at Del Mar for his next race. Ecoro Sieg must surely have a huge chance in a field that looks like it has no standout among either the US or the European runners. At 13/2, the Bet365 trading team is taking a huge risk, for all that relatively untested rockets are liable to blow up every now and again. Which of course this one might, hence…win only.

The curious situation of a 16/1 favourite

For those of a trading disposition (i.e. those who back to lay on the exchanges), there is a golden opportunity to get one of the likely favourites at an extraordinarily generous price. The horse in question is Governor Sam, who has won his last four races in succession, most recently the Indian Summer Stakes at Keeneland. He is being clearly aimed at the Breeders Cup by his connections and will go there as one of the leading contenders.

What is his form worth? The AntePoster has no idea. Weighing up the performances of the various US juveniles in different parts of the country is difficult, never mind how they match up to their European counterparts, although it’s clear that no standouts are flying in from the Old World. As a negative, neither of Governor Sam’s recent Beyer speed figures are anything to write home about. But in an early “Morning Line” – an indicative set of odds that partly forms betting expectations in a country where antepost betting doesn’t really exist –  on the Daily Racing Form website, the highly respected morning-line maker and racing analyst David Aragona has chalked this horse up as the likely 7/2 favourite for this race. While that may or may not prove accurate, Governor Sam is likely to take a significant chunk of the wagering, not least as he is owned by a famous baseball star. With all this in mind, the 16/1 offered by Skybet (four points higher than next best, B365 as low as 7/1) is highly appealing for those who wish to lay this uncertain prospect in just over two weeks’ time.

Recommendation: For the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, back Ecoro Sieg (13/2, B365), win only.  In same race, back Governor Sam (16/1, Skybet) with a view to laying (trading play only).