Breeders Cup Mile - Final Field Analysis

NOTABLE SPEECH (Tr. C Appleby)  |  Last 5 runs: 11715  |  Draw: 6 of 12

Unraced as a two-year-old, this son of Dubawi went into first Classic of the English flat season (2,000 Guineas at Newmarket) as a relative unknown after three wins in low-key prep runs on an all-weather surface. Looked exceptional when winning there, with his beating of top-class Rosallion arguably the best form in this race. However, he has been inconsistent since. His most recent sub-par run in a muddy Prix Moulin was excusable, but he was also lacklustre at Royal Ascot in June (7th of 8 with no obvious explanation on his preferred fast ground). Did win the G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood in August, but the form of that race doesn’t look that strong now (runner-up Maljoom has been poor since, Facteur Cheval didn’t have his ideal ground, Henry Longfellow now a shadow of the horse that ran Rosallion so close at Royal Ascot). All in all, this brilliant winner of the Guineas has a bit to prove, and his running style (likes to be settled off the pace) comes with risks attached in a big field around Del Mar’s tight circuit.

Betting observations

Possibly has the most questions to answer of any of the big players in this race, so doesn’t appeal for wagering purposes as the favourite. That said, Godolphin/Appleby/Buick have compiled an astonishing record in G1 races in the US in recent years, and he could start shorter in the US pools in particular.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
10/3	7/2	★★

PORTA FORTUNA (Tr. D O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 2-2111  |  Draw: 7 of 12

This daughter of top sprinter Caravaggio has finished in the first three in all eleven starts. Hardly wrapped in cotton wool as a two-year-old, running seven times and performing to an extremely high level (highlights: won G3 Albany at Royal Ascot, won G1 Cheveley Park at Newmarket, second in BC Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita). Has proved phenomenally tough and consistent this season – looked unlucky in the English 1,000 Guineas but has made up for that with a vengeance since, winning three G1 races in England and Ireland in the shape of the Coronation Stakes, Falmouth Stakes, and Matron Stakes. In all these races she sat close the pace before kicking on two furlongs out, showing both a good turn of foot and tenacity. Yet to take on the males as a three-year-old so this represents a new test but has the right run style, and proved at Santa Anita last November that she can handle long-distance travel.

Betting observations

Drifted slightly last week but has now been supported back into 4/1. With so many rivals likely to take money in this race, particularly those from the powerhouse Ballydoyle and Godolphin stables, The AntePoster doubts this filly of Donnacha O’Brien’s will shorten further and would like to see her drift slightly before recommending her as a wager.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
4/1	4/1	★★★

RAMATUELLE (Tr. C Head)  |  Last 5 runs: 2-2331  |  Draw: 1 of 12

Three-year-old daughter of Justify who had a stellar two-year-old season, starting favourite in all her five races and winning three, beaten only by classy males Vandeek and Beauvatier (by a neck and a head respectively). Began three-year old season with a respectable second in prep run at Deauville on atrocious ground (subsequent G1 winner Tamfana behind) before going onto the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket. Here she displayed a stunning turn of foot to shoot clear of the field, but with hindsight made that move prematurely as she was overhauled by two rivals in the final 50 yards. Returned to the UK for the G1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, finishing third behind rival Porta Fortuna. Trainer Christopher Head then decided that speed was her game and dropped back to seven furlongs for the G1 Prix de la Foret, where she finally got her tactics just right, producing another dazzling turn of foot to beat Kinross three lengths, probably the most visually impressive win on Arc weekend. Possesses tactical versatility so a turf mile with an emphasis on speed looks just what she wants, obvious chance with further upside possible after just four races this season. Needs to get out sharply from inside draw.

Betting observations

No doubting she has the attributes needed to take a prize like this, but at 4/1 this filly is probably priced correctly in this ultra-competitive race.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
4/1	5/1	★★★

CARL SPACKLER (Tr. C Brown)  |  Last 5 runs: 15111  |  Draw: 12 of 12

Unraced as a two-year-old but has made up for that in style since, winning seven of his ten starts. Wide-margin G3 and G2 winner at Saratoga in 2023. As a four-year-old he was stepped into Group 1 company for the first time in August, again at Saratoga (Fourstardave Handicap), where he settled just off the pace and sprinted away from the field, winning most impressively (runner-up More Than Looks, getting 2 lbs, was more than three lengths back). He then made it back-to-back G1 wins in the Coolmore Turf Mile in September, on this occasion taking the lead in the absence of other volunteers and again sprinting clear of the field, before holding off the closing run of old rival More Than Looks. Now shipping West for the first time, and there’s a very slight doubt as to whether this son of Lope De Vega is at his best on rattling fast ground (his more impressive win in the Fourstardave was on rain-softened turf) but is now clearly the real deal and right up there with the Europeans on ratings. Connections will not be pleased with the outside post, however.

Betting observations

In contrast to the BC Turf, the home team has more than held its own in this race, and this dual Group 1 winner looked an appealing bet to notch up another victory for the Americans, but that was before his very poor draw. The AntePoster is neutral at 10/1.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
10/1	6/1	★★★

DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (Tr. A O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 4801  |  Draw: 4 of 12

One of the most exciting juveniles in the omnipotent Ballydoyle yard last year, initially living up to his huge price tag and stunning pedigree before flopping in the G1 Futurity Stakes at the end of the season in desperate ground. Has taken a while to return to his best this season, disappointing with poor runs (relative to expectations) in the French 2,000 Guineas and French Derby, though these were both run on testing ground. Also very disappointing in fast-ground King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, but probably didn’t stay that 12-furlong trip. Has since returned to the winner’s enclosure twice in succession, demolishing the opposition over seven furlongs in the G3 Meld Stakes before winning the G2 Solonaway Stakes over a mile on Irish Champions Weekend. The form of those wins hardly sets the pulse racing (a line through Mountain Bear makes him inferior to Carl Spackler, for example), but certainly the style of his Meld win hinted at a top-class performer. Drew well.

Betting observations

Extremely difficult to weigh up from a wagering perspective. A strict reading of the form does not give him an obvious chance of beating those ahead of him in the betting, nor does an each-way bet appeal given the depth of the field. On the other hand, he might just have hit top form at the right time and is bound to take money as Ballydoyle’s sole representative, including in the US pools. On balance The AntePoster is against him.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
9/1	8/1	★★

JOHANNES (Tr. T Yakteen)  |  Last 5 runs: 5-1111  |  Draw: 9 of 12

It has been 20 years since California last produced the winner of this race, and the turf racing scene on the West Coast has remained weak in the interim. This colt has changed the narrative. Started his career as a very mediocre dirt horse but has been transformed by the switch to grass – winning seven of his last eight, including two Grade 1s in his last three races, in each case showing an ability to sit handily and unleash an impressive turn of foot. That is exactly the style of racing that works at Del Mar and in this race generally, and for good measure he is the only serious contender in this race with any experience of this track. On the negative side, his form lines look the weakest of the top six in the betting, as the horses he has been beating in California would not stand a chance in this race.

Betting observations

Perhaps the most difficult horse to evaluate for betting purposes. On the one hand his form looks suspect, but on the other he been imperious this year and run fast times, not least at Del Mar, so 14/1 looks overly dismissive (cf. Morning Line price of 9/2).

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
14/1	9/2	★★★★

CHILI FLAG (Tr. C Brown)  |  Last 5 runs: 11102  |  Draw: 2 of 12

Five-year-old daughter of Cityscape who spent her first two seasons racing in Europe, without reaching any great heights. As has so often been the case with European fillies, the switch to Chad Brown has worked wonders and she has won four of her last eight races, including a G3, a G2 and a G1 in three successive races back in the spring. Well beaten when stepped up to nine furlongs in the G1 Diana at Saratoga in July, then rested for ten weeks before returning to G1 company over a mile in the First Lady at Keeneland. Good second there to Gina Romantica (fourth in last year’s BC Mile), but that’s not good enough form to be competitive in a field this strong unless she can step up again.

Betting observations

This filly has been a credit to her connections this year, but it looks like they are biting off more than they can chew here. No betting appeal in this very strong event.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
16/1	20/1	★★

GEOGLYPH (Tr. T Kimura)  |  Last 5 runs: 0-3562  |  Draw: 3 of 12

This five-year-old son of US sprinter Drefong has been a standing dish in top Japanese dirt races between 8 and 11 furlongs over the last three years. Finest hour came in April 2022 when he took the scalp of now retired superstar Equinox in the Satsuki Sho over ten furlongs. However, despite a number of other creditable performances – including a surprising but successful experiment on the dirt that saw connections collect $1.25 million for finishing fourth in the nine-furlong Saudi Cup – he has not won since. Equally unsettling is the fact that he has been almost exclusively campaigned over distances in excess of a mile, and although he did run creditably over that distance when finishing sixth in the Yasuda Kinen back in May, he enjoyed a perfect trip that day from an inside draw. At least he's drawn well again here.

Betting observations

Fits with this field on class grounds, but very doubtful that a sharp mile at Del Mar is the right scene for him to record his first win in two-and-a-half years. Doesn’t appeal as a bet.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
16/1	20/1	★★

MORE THAN LOOKS (Tr. C DeVaux)  |  Last 5 runs: 316-22  |  Draw: 8 of 12

Unraced as a two-year-old and improved hand over fist in his first season last year, catching the eye in this race (held at Santa Anita) as a fast-finishing sixth but beaten just two lengths. Injury meant he was late to return to action in 2024, reappearing with a creditable second to Carl Spackler (who was giving 2 lbs) in the Fourstardave at Ascot, before improving again behind the same rival last time out at Keeneland. He closed with remarkable speed on that occasion to finish much closer to the winner at level weights, and with just two races in his legs this year has the right to improve again. However, there’s a concern that is deep-closing style will see him running past his rivals all too late in Del Mar’s short straight, as he faces a slew of top milers here who will be ahead of him turning for home.

Betting observations

Not an obvious winner, but one of the horses most likely to capitalize if there is a pace meltdown. Really dangerous in that scenario, so appeals as an each-way play if that price holds when four places become available.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
20/1	20/1	★★★★

TEN HAPPY ROSE (Tr. D Takayanagi)  |  Last 5 runs: 1-7617  |  Draw: 11 of 12

This six-year-old daughter of crack middle-distance horse Epiphaneia proved a decent filly but no top-notcher earlier in her career. On the balance of that record and two lacklustre runs earlier this season (well beaten in G3 and G2 contest at massive prices), she had no right to be contesting Tokyo’s Grade 1 Victoria Mile in May, where she duly started at 209/1. Confounding all previous form Daisuke Takayanagi’s charge won, and in a fast time for good measure: by way of comparison, she ran significantly faster than Songline did when winning the Victoria Mile in 2023 (both races on Japan’s typically “firm” ground), that mare going on to be beaten just 1.25 lengths in this race last November. Rested for four months with this target in mind, Ten Happy Rose returned to the racetrack in September for a prep run over six furlongs, a distance she had not run over for three years, so she was predictably well beaten. Has to run back to her one monstrous performance here to be competitive, but the possibility of that eventuality makes her the joker in the pack here. Outside draw doesn’t help her chances.

Betting observations

In an eerie coincidence this mare is 25/1 to take this prize, having run just one race in a 25-run career that gives her a serious chance. The AntePoster has no idea whether she can reproduce that astonishing formline in a different country on a racetrack she has never seen before. But perhaps that’s a tiny win-only bet worth taking.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
33/1	30/1	★★★

GOLIAD (Tr. R Mandella)  |  Last 5 runs: 16011  |  Draw: 5 of 12

No, not Goliath, one of the world’s top turf racehorses, but Goliad, a seven-year-old gelding by War Front who earned the biggest payday of his 34-race career last time out at Kentucky Downs, where he won almost $1 million for winning the aptly named Mint Millions with his trademark front-running style. A better gauge of his form in top-level company is his last-place finish (beaten 14 lengths) behind Johannes in the G1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita in May. Likely to be relevant to this race as a pace factor, but won’t be around to trouble the judge at the wire.

Betting observations

Makes no betting appeal on any level.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
50/1	20/1	★

WIN FOR THE MONEY (Tr. M Casse)  |  Last 5 runs: 3-1421  |  Draw: 10 of 12

Lightly-raced five-year-old gelding who has hit the form of his life recently, upsetting the G1 Woodbine Mile in September at 15/1. That was by far the best race of his life and despite being a Grade 1 it looks weak based on the horses he beat, but the time was good and highly-respected trainer Mark Casse took the same prep path with World Approval, who won the BC Mile at this very venue back in 2017. A repeat win looks very unlikely in this elite field, but no doubting he’s in raging form. Wide draw a slight negative.

Betting observations

On form he shouldn’t be threatening the podium places and The AntePoster is therefore reluctant to recommend him as a bet, but he does have the potential to outrun his odds. Perhaps one to take a wild swing at once four places are offered if that price still holds.  

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
66/1	30/1	★★★

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