Breeders Cup 2025: Take 20/1 on top US miler before his Saratoga return this Saturday

In contrast to the Breeders Cup Turf, which has gone to the European raiding party in 19 of the last 25 runnings, the Breeders Cup Mile (turf variant, not to be confused with the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile) has seen honours broadly evenly shared between Europe and local trainers based in North America over the last quarter of a century.

The tight turns and short straights of US oval racing over this shorter distance provide the American horses, who are well used to such an environment, with something of a counter-advantage to offset the typically stronger official ratings held by the European raiding party.

Yet until much later in the year, European bookmakers tend to stuff the top of the betting market with all possible European raiders (many of whom will not come), ignoring the Americans until they come to the fore as the Breeders Cup weekend nears. This can create value.

The top American miler of last year, Johannes, has been sidelined with bone bruising since the start of the year, but is now back and ready to roll with his main season target being very much the Breeders Cup, which will once again be staged in his Californian back yard: Del Mar is the host venue for the second successive year. Indeed, Johannes is currently the favourite for a "Win And You're In"race at Saratoga this Saturday known as the Fourstardave.

With trainer Tim Yakteen issuing an upbeat bulletin on his five-year-old's health and well-being, we believe Johannes should be backed now for the Breeders Cup Mile at 20/1 before his return. This horse has won 8 of his last 10 races, with his form figures (most recent on right) being 1115111121. The fifth placing came on his sole start outside of California. The runner's-up placing was in last year's Breeders Cup Mile (started at 9/2), when he was beaten three-quarters of a length by a horse who is now retired. Last year's dual Group 1 winner (2000 Guineas/Sussex Stakes) Notable Speech came third.

The risks to this bet include the three-month antepost timeline (plenty can go wrong in three months), and the possibility that Johannes does not return to his best after being sidelined. In addition, he may well lose his comeback race at Saratoga (far from his California base) on Saturday, hence the 20/1 price may hold or even possibly lengthen.

But The AntePoster believes the price on offer more than compensates for these risks, and will disappear at some stage over the next couple of months, win, lose or draw on Saturday. And although there will no doubt be a strong European raiding party to contend with come the first weekend of November, that division looks something of a mess right now, and there is absolutely no certainty over any European participant at the moment.

In short, 20/1 is the wrong price for the horse who is likely to be the big US turf mile threat at Del Mar on 1 November. Come tomorrow night that price may be long gone.

Recommendation: Back Johannes (win only) at 20/1 with MGM Bet or Virginbet to win the Breeders Cup Mile on 1 November at Del Mar racetrack, California.