Breeders Cup Turf: Rebel Rebel, your price is a mess...

With the Breeders Cup being a movable feast, it can sometimes be very dangerous to take on an antepost position well in advance of the turf races, as the going can be highly unpredictable when the action takes place in Kentucky (Keeneland, Churchill Downs) or the East Coast (Belmont, Monmouth Park, Aqueduct). In these part of the country, significant rain is always possible in the run-up to the big weekend (typically first weekeend of November, this year 31 Oct. & 1 Nov).

This is a point worth noting next year when the Breeders Cup takes place at Belmont. Out in California, by contrast, fast going is almost always a given at Santa Anita or Del Mar. And it is to the latter track to which the Breeder Cup extravaganza is returning to in 2025 for the second year running. This is helpful for long-range punters.

The defending champion, Rebel's Romance, wants fast ground to show his absolute best. The good news for his supports is that, at Del Mar, that's exactly what he'll get. Just like he did last year when winning the Breeders Cup Turf for the second time (having won the 2022 version on firm ground at Keeneland, did not contest the 2023 edition).

At 7/1 with one bookmaker, he's patently the wrong price to lift this crown for the third time in three attempts. According to official ratings, his last two races in the UK are the best he has ever delivered on home soil: Note that he finished a much closer third in last week's King George than he did in the 2024 edition, despite the ground not being quite as fast as he would like. Quite evidently, this 7-year old gelding is still at the top of his game.

Even more appealingly, there are major doubts over the participation of most of the other leading candidates in the betting for one reason or other. That applies in particular to the most daunting opponent of all: King George hero Calandagan has the Japan Cup a month later as his main target, and it was confirmed today (thus prompting this article) that he will prep either in the Champion Stakes at Ascot or in a Group 2 Longchamp. So that's the market favourite and key rival out, unless there is a change of heart.

Of the other big names in the betting, Ombudsman has the same ownership colours and is more likely to chase other autumn targets, while there are no less than eight Aidan O'Brien horses listed for the race, and quite clearly all but a couple won't line up in this race. In particular, Delacroix has yet to return to 12 furlongs after his one disastrous attempt (for all that there was an excuse there), other big guns Lambourn, Minnie Hauk and Jan Brueghel are all a questionable fit for Del Mar's lightning fast ground and tight turns over 12 furlongs, and while Whirl would be very interesting if she were to line up, she already has an all-expenses paid slot in the starting gate for the Filly & Mare Turf courtesy of her Nassau Stakes win (not that fees are a concern for "The Lads", but she is already heavy favourite for that race, and they will want to win both contests). As for Los Angeles, it is clear that the Prince of Wales fiasco has set him back, and whether connections will risk him again on fast ground is moot.

Meanwhile, star mare Kalpana is targeting the Arc de Triomphe, and connections are far more likely to return to Champions Day (if indeed she is given another mission at all) after crossing the line at Longchamp. It should not be forgotten that Bluestocking was retired immediately after her success in Paris last October.

In summary, with his tactical speed, running style and love of fast ground, Rebel's Romance is a huge player in this year's Breeders Cup Turf, which his big end-of-season target. This is likely to be his swansong, and this two-time winner's price come the day is likely to be very short, not least since the Appleby/Buick pairing is worshipped in the US after such stunning success at Group 1 level stateside over the years.

So 7/1?

William Hill, The AntePoster loves you so.

Recommendation: Back Rebel's Romance win-only at 7/1 with William Hill to win the Breeders Cup Turf at Del Mar on 1 November.