Falmouth Stakes: Group 1 winner can take big step forward

The news that True Love will miss the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket on Friday, leaving stablemate Precise as the sole representative of the Ballydoyle contingent for this prestigious Group 1, has removed a leading player from this market and increased our interest in a race where the favourite takes up a huge chunk of the market.

There will be plenty of punters who will conclude that Precise "just wins" again, but we were less impressed with her last time out at Ascot after her stunning Irish 1000 Guineas win. Had our Coronation Stakes pick Touleen got a clear run it's far from clear that Aidan O'Brien's crack filly would even have won that race.

We considered Touleen again here, but something rather niggles at us in the context of this race. Connections have made quite clear their fear that Newmarket is not the ideal track for their filly, and while the July Course is not the Rowley Mile (where Touleen's form figures read 5-6, as opposed to 1-1-2-2 at flat tracks) the topographical and ground similarities still set the alarm bells ringing. At a third of the price at which we picked her for the Coronation we'll reluctantly swerve Touleen on this occasion.

Instead we like one of the three Group 1 winners in the field. Not Precise at 6/4, and certainly not Fallen Angel, who will surely swerve the race given her aversion to fast summer ground – as reflected in her current antepost price of 16/1.

The filly we want to bet at the prices is Balantina at 10/1.

Followers of our youtube channel will recall our enthusiasm for Donnacha O'Brien's talented filly in the run-up to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, where she duly obliged at a whopping price. We were mildly surprised that she even ran in the Coronation Stakes for her seasonal debut, as O'Brien jr. had made it abundantly clear that she would not be fully fit for that engagement. And so it proved, as Balantina travelled sweetly under Oisin Murphy in the rear (still last turning into the straight) and loomed up menacingly on the outside before match fitness told in the final stages and her effort flattened out.

Donnacha O'Brien expects his filly to come on a bundle for that run and so do we. A top-form Precise will be awfully tough to beat, but Balantina was ultimately a comfortable winner of her only run at Group 1 level, and has other key form lines that suggests she belongs at the top level, not least when finishing a neck second to top French filly Green Spirit in a strong edition of the G2 Prix Six Perfections at Deauville last summer.

In summary, Balantina appeals strongly as a high-class filly who is overpriced on the basis of her Coronation Stakes fifth last month when nowhere near full fitness (seasonal debut). She can pose a live threat on a course where her sire was such a brilliant winner of the July Cup seven years ago this week.

We are wagering now rather than after tomorrow's final declaration stage as we expect Balantina to shorten and cannot be absolutely certain that the Falmouth field will comprise eight or more runners by 10 a.m. tomorrow morning. Those who wish to avoid "mild fever" and other risks associated with an antepost bet may prefer to wait.

Recommendation: Back Balantina each-way at 10/1 with Bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral and various others to win the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket on Friday 10 July. If cut below 9/1 wait for 48-hour market.