Hardwicke Stakes: Take on front of market with the stalwart "GGs"

The Hardwicke Stakes on the final day of the Royal Meeting has only ever been a Group 2 race, but it frequently attracts Group 1 horses. This year is no exception, with all of the top-five horses in the betting having won at the highest level in the last couple of years.

We like the shape of this market for betting purposes. Favourite Kalpana (best 9/4, mainly 2/1) is a terrific mare but has not won at G1 or G2 level against her own gender. Admittedly, she has one exceptional race against the boys – second in last year's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth stakes over course and distance (dividing Calandagan and Rebel's Romance no less).

But that was one of the slower King Georges of recent years with a bit of juice in the ground, whereas this Saturday is likely to be only the second time in her life that she will be leaving the starting gates on rattling fast ground. The fastest ground Kalpana has run on hitherto was in the Ribblesdale Stakes at this meeting two years ago, when she finished third (as 9/4 favourite) from two horses of no great calibre who never ran to that level before or after (Port Fairy, Lava Stream). This was not stellar stuff.

Connections have said on many occasions that they would prefer some ease for their star mare, and while she is likely to run and perform with credit, we think there's a very good chance Kalpana is vulnerable.

Second favourite Jan Brueghel is another to take on. After a brilliant win over Calandagan in the Coronation Cup last year this enigmatic Ballydoyle inmate came to Ascot for the King George after a six-week break as 5/2 second favourite but could finish only fourth of five. This year he would be coming to Royal Ascot after a gruelling Coronation Cup on much softer ground with just a two-week break – this screams "bridge too far" to us. Connections might well opt not to risk him at tomorrow's final declaration stage, just as they opted to skip the King Edward VIII Stakes with Derby disappointment Benvenuto Cellini.

All in all, we think this scene looks set pretty fair for the third and fourth favourites in this race, the two "Gs": Goliath and Giavellotto. In a field where plenty of absentees are guaranteed – some have already run this week and some have been declared to do so – this will not a be a large field, and we will play both each-way.

Goliath @ 13/2:

• Superb course form, comprising a second in this race in 2024 followed by a stunning win in the King George a month later. In the latter contest he had no less than that season's Arc winner Bluestocking more than two lengths behind in second, with a clutch of four other G1 winners well beaten (Rebel's Romance, Auguste Rodin, Luxembourg, Dubai Honour).

  
  

• Had added consistency to his bow in the last six months, having posted 121+ RPRs in all of his last three races, namely a close third to Sosie in Hong Kong Vase in December, a neck second in a strong Group 2 field in Doha, and an easy winner of a G2 at Chantilly just a few weeks ago. He's surely primed to run another big race at a track he loves.

Giavellotto @ 8/1:

• Rock-solid performer who hasn't run a bad race in his life other than at Meydan, where his form reads 9-5-5-3. In his last ten races at multiple other tracks, his record reads 3-1-1-3-1-2-1-4-2-3. Note that six of those ten runs were at Group 1 level, and the fourth place was in a 17-horse Arc de Triomphe on ground softer than he cares for.

  
  

• Has only run once at Ascot (many moons ago), but this resulted in a runner-up finish which was rated as his second-best performance of that 2022 season (comprised seven runs). In our view, the stiff Ascot 12 furlongs is ideal for this strong stayer who sometimes arrives on the scene too late for the win at flatter tracks.

Recommendations for Hardwicke Stakes, Royal Ascot, Saturday 17 June:

Back Goliath each-way at 13/2 with Betway, BetMGM or Virginbet, or elsewhere at 6/1 generally.

Back Giavellotto each-way at 8/1 with Bet365. 7/1 available with Paddy Power, Skybet, Boylesports or Betfred also acceptable. NOT with William Hill (9/2) or Unibet (5/1).