Pegasus World Cup - Final Field Guide
- The AntePoster (H)
- Jan 21
- 8 min read
NOTE: ALL BOOKMAKERS ARE NOW "NON-RUNNER NO BET" SO THIS RACE NO LONGER CARRIES ANTEPOST RISK
The guide below has been published following final declarations, so this is no longer an antepost market. Prices will change continuously in the runup to the race, and these changes should be taken into account when evaluating the chances of each horse. A five-star recommendation implies an extremely attractively-priced horse, a one-star recommendation would be our idea of an extremely unappealing wager.
LOCKED (Pletcher / Velazquez) | Last 5 runs: 113-11-
This son of Gun Runner was among the most talented of the juvenile crop of 2022 (third in Breeders Cup Juvenile) but a knee injury in March while he was on the Kentucky Derby trail ruled him out of most of his three-year-old season. Returned with an easy allowance race win in October before impressing again with a solid win in the G2 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct in early December (very strong field for a G2, perhaps unsurprisingly as it was formerly a G1). Comes into this with a favourite’s chance, with the stretch-out to nine furlongs expected to suit, but could have done without drawing post 11 of 12. Needs to avoid getting hung out too wide around the first turn.
Betting observations
Recommended by The AntePoster at an astonishing 12/1 in early December when it was clear that the biggest dirt players in the US (Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Thorpedo Anna) would be bypassing this race. Having drawn wide, 5/2 doesn’t really appeal as a race-day wagering price.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
5/2 | ★★★ |
WHITE ABARRIO (Joseph Jr / Ortiz Jr | Last 5 runs: /0512-
Which White Abarrio will turn up here? The decent-but-hardly-stellar three-year-old of 2022 who was only good enough to finish 8th of 13 in this race in January 2023 under the stewardship of Saffie Joseph Jr? Or the four-year-old who then blossomed under the care of Rick Dutrow, recording spectacular wins in the G1 Whitney and G1 Breeders Cup Classic later that year? Or the 2024 version under the same trainer, who flopped badly in the 2024 Saudi Cup last February and then again in the “Met Mile” at Saratoga in the summer? This is not an easy question to answer. The return to Joseph’s barn in November has seen him finish 1st and 2nd in back-to-back races over seven furlongs (had a terrible trip in latter, did well to finish where he did), and his workouts in the run-up to his race have been very eye-catching, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s back to his sensational best, particularly as that came under the tutelage of a different trainer. Very difficult to assess where this horse is right now until the gates open.
Betting observations
Looked a very big price a month ago at 12-1, but stellar workouts and two decent races have seen him steadily cut to the point where the value has gone. An obvious win threat, but that’s long since been built into his price.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
3/1 | ★★ |
SAUDI CROWN (Cox / Geroux) | Last 5 runs: 30101-
Quite lightly-raced five-year-old, one of the most talented front runners on the US dirt scene over 8-9 furlongs. Has rather an erratic CV (his last seven races have yielded three wins, a very close third in last year’s Saudi Cup, and three flops), but has the ability to set extremely fast fractions and maintain them, so looks the obvious candidate to lead this race a very long way. His victory last time out was against much less accomplished types, but he was giving half a stone to the promising runner-up and the speed figure was impressive. Although he has never raced at Gulfstream, his 12 runs have come at an impressive 11 different tracks, so there’s little reason to doubt his versatility on that front.
Betting observations
He looks heavily odds-on to lead this field for a very long way. If he’s on a going day he might well lead to the wire, and 9/2 looks attractive as a wager on that outcome. Poor each-way bet given his all-or-nothing profile.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
9/2 | ★★★★ |
MYSTIK DAN (McPeek / Hernandez Jr) | Last 5 runs: 31286-
Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner would be right at the top of this list based on that form, but had a charmed run in the “Run for the Roses”, and that’s starting to look like a form outlier as things deteriorated progressively thereafter. Was a decent second in the Preakness, but in muddy conditions that we know suit him, and he was then beaten 16 lengths in the Belmont Stakes (run at 10 furlongs last year at Saratoga) before his season was curtailed. Returned to the racetrack a month ago to finish a bitterly disappointing last of six (beaten more than 11 lengths) in the G1 Malibu, although the point should be made that seven furlongs was unlikely to suit. This trip is much more likely to be up his alley but it’s still difficult to know what to expect from him on Saturday.
Betting observations
So many question marks, but 9/1 looks a fair/neutral price for a horse who at his best would have a co-favourite’s chance. Most unappealing on an each-way basis given his very poor last two performances.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
9/1 | ★★★ |
STRONGHOLD (D’Amato / Fresu) | Last 5 runs: 17222-
Newly-turned four-year-old who could only finish seventh in last year’s Kentucky Derby but has otherwise always delivered on race day, as indicated by his other career finishing positions: 2122111222 (including three Group 1 races). Ran well last time out over a trip too short (G1 Malibu, seven furlongs), was closing on the high-class Raging Torrent in the final half-furlong. Return to nine furlongs should suit, and firmly in contention for a place.
Betting observations
Excluding the 20-horse Kentucky Derby, this horse has performed with admirable consistency at G1 level (one win, two seconds). This is the toughest ask since the 20-horse Kentucky Derby, but his competition includes various no-hopers along with blowout types, so he appeals strongly as an each-way play at the standout 14-1 available at the time of writing. Four places may be available on eve of race but price may not last that long.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
14/1 | ★★★★ |
SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING (Joseph Jr / Gaffalione) | Last 5 runs: 35126-
“Skippy” has become something of a fans’ favourite, and there are reasons for that beyond the name: Has been relentlessly campaigned over the last three years, running just shy of 30 races (graded stakes for last 19 runs) and winning on ten occasions, of which three were Grade 2 contests. But therein lies the problem, which might also be described as the “class factor”: his nine attempts at G1 level have yielded finishing positions of 53973P356. As that string indicates, he could run into a place but surely can’t win this as a newly turned six-year-old. Wide draw a further negative.
Betting observations
Likeable horse but unappealing bet, not least since he pulled up in this race last year and finished seventh in the 2023 running.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
14/1 | ★★ |
CRUPI (Pletcher / Saez) | Last 5 runs: 12234-
Five-year-old who has won five of his 19 races with his “deep closer” running style. That sufficed for him to pass much of the field and finish third in this race last year, albeit beaten almost five lengths in a field that looked weaker than this one. His other standout performance on the form book was recorded last summer when he finished 2nd to Arthur’s Ride in a muddy G1 Whitney at Saratoga. Not so good since, being well beaten in G2 races over this trip in Belmont in September and Churchill Downs. Chance rests largely on a pace meltdown, which would bring him right into the equation.
Betting observations
With this year’s running looking stronger than the 2024 edition, he doesn’t appeal even as an each-way play at the current odds (started at 34-1 last year). However, a few pennies to win at what will likely be a huge price on the exchanges on the day of the race looks an interesting speculative play to cover the scenario in which they all go crazy up front and the race falls into his lap.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
20/1 | ★★★ |
MIXTO (O’ Neill / Dettori) | Last 5 runs: 52103-
The finest hour of this California-based horse came last September when he won the G1 Pacific Classic over 10 furlongs at Del Mar as a 22-1 outsider. That wasn’t a strong race for the level, and a more meaningful measure of his ability was probably his 11th place (beaten 19 lengths) in the Breeders Cup Classic in November. Beaten by G3-level horses last time out in a G3 race, and now finds himself back in deeper waters for his first start outside California. Two mild positives are Frankie Dettori in the saddle for the first time and his inside draw near two of the main speed horses, which could give him a decent tow into the race.
Betting observations
There is a world in which Mixto could finish in the first four, but even the 20/1 available in places doesn’t make an appealing wager in this company.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
20/1 | ★★ |
NEWGRANGE (D’Angelo / Jaramillo) | Last 5 runs: 1/165-
Another West Coast horse whose peak form was recorded in December 2023 and January 2024 when he won back-to-back G2 races in his native California under Philip D’Amato. Has clearly had his problems since, as his only two races after that brace of victories saw him finish sixth of seven (beaten 12 lengths) in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap in March, and fifth of five (beaten 11 lengths) in a weak G2 at Del Mar in July. Hasn’t a prayer on that more recent form, and no idea what to expect from this newly-turned six-year-old after a long layoff and first start for new trainer.
Betting observations
Even on his best form he should be a double-figure price in this field, which is by far the strongest he has ever faced. In the absence of even any half-decent form in his most recent races he makes no appeal whatsoever.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
25/1 | ★ |
POWER SQUEEZE (Delgado / Castellano | Last 5 runs: 31172-
The queen of the fillies, Thorpedo Anna, would have started favourite for this race had she been pointed here by connections, but no other distaff contender in training appeals in this spot. That emphatically includes this filly, whose sole G1 victory (Alabama Stakes at Saratoga in July last year) was against a weak field of G2-quality three-year-old fillies. Has since finished ten lengths behind Thorpedo Anna in the G1 Cotillion, and following a three-month break could not even win a listed race against her own sex in late December. Way out of her depth – and that’s before she drew post 12 of 12.
Betting observations
Makes no appeal at any two-digit price.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
50/1 | ★ |
STEAL SUNSHINE (Dibona / Davis) | Last 5 runs: 34513-
Knows his way around Gulfstream Park for sure, having won here six times in a 25-race career dating back to May 2021. Once again, the problem here is the class factor – his sole win at graded stakes level was a shockingly weak G2 (five-horse field, he was getting weight from the winner who has no pretensions of G1 quality), and he has been comprehensively beaten in all three starts at the highest level. It’s therefore very hard to see him running the best race of his life against the strongest competition he has ever faced, not least as he has now turned six. That said, it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that this local specialist could run into a place.
Betting observations
Very little chance of winning this but his price reflects that, and the 10-1 imputed place odds don’t look that unreasonable if four-place terms are offered.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
50/1 | ★★★ |
VITALITY (Ladouceur / Maragh) | Last 5 runs: 61426-
Decent horse at his level, but that level has never extended to graded stakes, let alone a deep G1 like this. To give some idea of his relative quality, he finished four lengths behind Steal The Sunshine (50-1 for this race) last time out in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday over this course while carrying 5lbs less weight. His presence here is presumably due to the fact that he is owned by Stronach Stables – the Stronach Group owns Gulfstream Park and the Pegasus World Cup was created by that organization. He’s just pointless filler in this line-up.
Betting observations
There is not even a fantasy world in which this horse can win or be competitive in this race. Price should have at least one nought on it.
Best fixed odds | Price appeal |
66/1 | ★ |
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