Pretty Polly: French mare a steal with Paddy Power... but extra antepost risk attached

IMPORTANT: PLEASE READ THE FULL ARTICLE BEFORE WAGERING ON THIS MARE. THERE IS NO NEWSFLOW CERTAINTY THAT SHE WILL BE DECLARED FOR THIS RACE.

This is a flash article given the limited window of opportunity.

At the time of writing, five bookmakers (but only three trading teams) had priced up the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes, set to be run at The Curragh on 28 June.

15 horses have been entered, but it seems fairly certain that fewer horses will be declared at the 48-hour stage.

The AntePoster is staggered to see the French mare Survie priced up as the complete outsiders at 25/1 by Paddy Power (and according to Oddschecker, also by fellow company Skybet, but we see no pricing on the latter site). Despite the antepost risk involved – The AntePoster has seen no clear newsflow to the effect that Survie will run, for all that her 5-day declaration would appear a clear statement of intent – we believe she is an outstanding bet at this price, which is several multiples of what we consider fair value.

Career sketch:

• Unbeaten filly as a 2yo in 2023: two runs, two wins

  
  

• Well beaten on heavy ground on 3yo debut in 2024, much better when third in G2 Prix St Alary on soft ground. Then much better again when beaten just a head in the G1 Prix Diane, the first time in her career racing on fast turf. Then took a summer break.

  
  

• Finished down the field in two soft-ground runs at Longchamp last year when upped to 12 furlongs on testing ground on Arc trials day and Arc weekend (Prix Vermeille and Arc de Triomphe, both times behind Bluestocking). No disgrace in the latter in particular (7th of 16), but soft ground is evidently not her bag, and perhaps nor too is 12 furlongs.

  
  

• Only one run this season, when she was 1.25-length runner-up to Aventure in the G2 Prix Corrida. The winner is 2 from 2 this season since finishing runner-up to Bluestocking in the Arc de Triomphe, and the third horse home has since finished second to Goliath, last year's winner of the G1 King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. This is a serious form line.

Summary: Survie is just a neck away from being a Classic winner, has shown her best form on faster ground, looks perfectly suited by this 10-furlong trip, and has run an excellent comeback race this season, finishing not far behind one of the best middle-distance horses (of either gender) in training, in a race that has already worked out well from a form analysis standpoint. In a race likely to see several withdrawals, she appeal to us a a speculative must-play despite no definitive newsflow over her participation.

Recommendation: Back Survie at 25/1 with Paddy Power to win the Pretty Polly Stakes at The Curragh on Saturday 28 July. Each-way risk acceptable in this exceptional situation, but win-only with a view to laying is a much more efficient strategy.