Prix de l’Opera: Plenty to like about this Sparkling price

Today, Saturday 21 September, Paddy Power became the first bookmaker to price up the 10-furlong Group 1 race for fillies and mares on Arc weekend known as the Prix de l’Opera. And they have offered punters a dazzling opportunity in the form of Prix de Diane (i.e. French Oaks) winner Sparkling Plenty, pricing her up at 8-1.

The AntePoster sees two exciting angles here. The first – and very much in keeping with other opportunities highlighted in recent articles – is the tidal wave of doubt over the participation of all four fillies and mares quoted at shorter prices than Patrice Cottier’s filly in the betting. Specifically:

• Mqse de Sevigne:  Paddy Power’s “favourite” is not headed to this race. She is being targeted at the Arc de Triomphe on the same day. This plan was hatched by trainer Andre Fabre many moons ago.

  
  

• Tamfana: Connections have indicated that they will opt for the shorter trip of the Sun Chariot at Newmarket the day before the Opera.  Not certain, but highly likely [see here].

  
  

• Aventure: Quite where this filly goes next is still very much up in the air. She has three entries on Arc weekend – the Prix de l’Opera over 10 furlongs, the Prix Royallieu over 14, and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe itself over 12. It’s guesswork at this stage with the ground an unknown.

  
  

• Bluestocking: Will be supplemented for the Arc de Triomphe as long as there is sufficient give in the turf. If not, connections have indicated that they will bypass Arc weekend altogether and wait for Champions Day at Ascot on 19 October. The Opera has not featured in the narrative.

The second angle is how “muddied up” Sparkling Plenty’s form looks following her sixth place in the 12-furlong Prix Vermeille on Arc trials weekend. There are (linked) factors to understand here:

1. Since racing restarted at Longchamp for the autumn, coming from well off the pace has not been a recipe for success. The first five past the post in the Vermeille were essentially positioned 2-3-4-5-6 (in the 12-horse field) for the duration of the race. Other than the leader for most of the race (who was the complete outsider at 114-1, making the pace for Aventure in the same owner's colours), this race was dominated by horses who kept up with the pace.

   
   

2. From a wide draw, jockey Tony Piccone decided to take Sparkling Plenty to the very back of the field, and remained in last place for ten of the twelve furlongs. What’s more, the back three detached themselves from the field completely – in the words of At The Races commentator Ian Bartlett, who could not hide his consternation after three furlongs: “...and Sparking Plenty spots the leader about 20 lengths here, she’s in last place!”

   
   

3. Sectional data reveals that Sparkling Plenty ran the final three furlongs faster than any other horse. Indeed, the last three furlongs bear rewatching on video, as the camera essentially shows an unchanged picture of the structure of the field, with the horses hardly changing positions relative to one another. Except one, who is flying all too late.

The AntePoster’s take

That Sparkling Plenty finished as close as she did to the leaders in the Prix Vermeille was remarkable. Connections are expecting the return to a faster pace over a trip she excelled at in the Diane to suit her much better.  The AntePoster doubts she will be available at more than half her current price in two weeks’ time, and advises action before the Paddy Power trading team gets its act together.

Non-runner risk – owner whims and the lure of the Arc

Injury in the run-up to a big race is always a risk in the world of antepost betting, so that needs no special mention. But bettors in this case should perhaps bear in mind another factor, the lure of the Arc de Triomphe itself. Sparkling Plenty entered the Prix Vermeille with the Arc in mind, the outcome of the trial being likely to decide her next target. So although the only comments of the ownership operation’s racing manager indicate unambiguously that this filly is going to be dropped in trip for the Opera, it is just possible that the Emir of Qatar – the ultimate owner of Sparkling Plenty – may decide he wants to go for the big one after all. On such whims do antepost bets sometimes hang. But in this case, The AntePoster believes the risk is justified.

Published 21/09/2024 at 20:57