Sun Chariot antepost market all wrong following Porta Fortuna’s Matron romp

When the dust settles after a major Group one race, there is always a period of time – sometimes seconds, sometimes minutes, occasionally as much as overnight – when the implications for another race are not picked up by the bookmaking herd, or at least not by one of the slower gazelles.

One source of mispricings can often be a failure to engage closely with post-race trainer comments.  In this case the comments were uttered at Leopardstown on Saturday by Donnacha O’Brien, trainer of crack miler filly Porta Fortuna, who in the aftermath of his charge’s Matron Stakes victory pointed the way for the antepost betting community with a statement of such antepost significance that it merits a paragraph of its own:

 “I don’t think we’ll go to the Sun Chariot, although I’ll have to confirm with the owners. She’ll get an easy week or two now and we had it in our heads that if she won here she would skip Newmarket and we’ll prep her for America. All her owners are American and the original plan was to buy her and run her a few times in Europe before going to [the Breeders Cup Mile in] America.”

Connections have every reason to skip the Newmarket-based Sun Chariot Stakes, quite aside from the nationality of the ownership group. The (all-gender) Breeder’s Cup Mile is a far more prestigious line of black type on the breeding CV than the (fillies and mares only) Newmarket race. And on purse money alone, they have almost literally a million more reasons to take their superstar filly straight to California for five times the pot rather than risk taking her to the well once too often along the way.

But despite the glaringly obvious implications of this for the Sun Chariot antepost market, the bookmakers have slashed Porta Fortuna for that race to around even money. With the second horse in the betting (Inspiral) having become unreliable and seemingly cursed with an inability – or possibly an unwillingness – to break from the gate on level terms, and the third horse in the betting (Opera Singer) going for the 12-furlong Prix Vermeille on Sunday as a sighter for the Arc de Triomphe over that same trip, this market is appealing.

Step forward Tamfana (7/1 with Paddy Power at the time of publication), who was noted by all and sundry as one of the unluckiest horses in a Group 1 race this year when deprived of a clear run in the 1000 Guineas, flashing home to be beaten less than a length in fourth.  She then ran another fine race stepped up in trip for the Prix Diane (French Oaks), but again just fell short as she was beaten less than a length, before an unsuccessful but still creditable attempt at 12 furlongs against males. The drop back to a mile for the Atalanta stakes at Sandown in late August looked the right move, as she won there with a swagger. Trainer David Menuisier is duly pointing her back to the Rowley Mile in the first week of October, having gone cold on the idea of the Prix d’Opera over the longer trip of 10 furlongs. As well he might, as Tamfana is a serious player in the Sun Chariot, possibly worthy of co-favouritism with the unreliable Inspiral.

Tamfana | Scoop Dyga

The other to back before the market gets back in kilter with reality is the 1,000 Guineas winner Elmalka (10-1 generally). Things haven’t really worked out for Roger Varian’s filly since her big triumph back in May, but there is more than a hint of a suspicion that a combination of high summer ground at Royal Ascot (Coronation Stakes) and a longer trip at Goodwood (Nassau Stakes) were not what she wanted. Varian is now bringing her back to the scene of her greatest triumph, and the 10/1 generally available for her to replicate her Group 1 success over course and distance in May is just not right.