St James's Palace Stakes: Inviting each-way Royal Ascot play in market full of non-runners

Arguably the highest-quality day’s racing in the UK flat season comes on the opening Tuesday of Royal Ascot, which stages no less than three prestigious Group 1s. Though the other two races vie for top billing in quality terms, the purported showpiece of the card (given its 3.40 pm positioning in the daily programme) is the St James's Palace Stakes for three-year-old colts. We’ll just call it the SJP from this point onwards.

The ante-post betting market for this year’s edition of the race makes for an appealing each-way play on Jonquil, who (per Juddmonte racing manager Barry Mahon) has this date firmly inked in his diary as his next racecourse start. The argument for backing this horse is two-fold: Jonquil’s inherent claims based on the quality of his form, and the very doubtful participation of many of those higher than him in the betting.

Best horse in French 2000 Guineas?

Jonquil made two juvenile starts under the care of the now retired Sir Michael Stoute. He caught the eye of almost every observer in the land on his debut, winning at Sandown in August 2024 – despite a nightmare passage – for a trainer not known for having horses razor-sharp for their first starts. On the strength of this he went off 7/4 favourite for the listed Flying Scotsman, but ran a dismal race from start to finish. Racing Post analysis: Dwelt start, raced centre, in touch with leaders, no impression from 2f out, weakened over 1f out, 5th of 5 in group (trainer’s rep had no explanation for the poor form shown; vet had nothing to report). Jonquil would not return to the racecourse that year and was transferred to Andrew Balding’s yard for this 3-year-old campaign.

With that blot on his copybook, Jonquil would only start fifth favourite (8/1) for the G3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury in April, a traditional trial for the English 2000 Guineas. He defied those odss to win that impressively, but with the Juddmonte operation having the 2000 Guineas favourite in Field of Gold Balding’s colt was instead sent to Paris instead for the French equivalent, the Poule d’Essai des Poulains.

In this race he was beaten a head by Henry Matisse, who is now trading at 4/1 for the SJP. Following analysis of the French Guineas, The AntePoster would argue that Jonquil ran the better race based on race flow dynamics – an extraordinarily fast pace, particularly by French standards, saw the leaders “fall in a hole” and beaten 18 lengths. Of the first five home, Jonquil was by some way nearest to that pace throughout and the first to commit for home, and we believe his performance deserves a clear pace upgrade. In particular, Ballydoyle pair Henri Matisse (second favourite for the SJP) and Camille Pissarro (likely to return to France for the Prix du Jockey Club) sat way off the vicious tempo sat by the leaders. To our eyes, it is incomprehensible that Jonquil should be trading at three times’ the price of Henri Matisse for the rematch at Royal Ascot.

Market stuffed with likely non-runners

Just as attractive from an antepost standpoint are the doubts surrounding many of those in the betting. Juddmonte have a remarkably strong hand in the Classic mile division for the colts, and with Jonquil clearly pointed to the SJP it seems inconceivable that fellow Royal Ascot entrants Field of Gold (5/2 favourite) and Cosmic Year (11/2 favourite) will both join Balding’s colt on the opening day of the Royal meet. If the former wins, the latter will likely be rerouted elsewhere (possibly the Jersey Stakes), whereas if the latter triumphs, the former will in all likelihood be stepped up in trip for the Eclipse at Sandown in early July.

Then there are the “50/50” and “virtually no chance of running” horses in the betting.  Godolphin’s Shadow of Light is clear favourite for the Commonwealth Cup on the Friday of Royal Ascot, and trainer Charlie Appleby has made it clear that he is agonising over the decision of which race to choose for his champion 2-year-old's next start. The next three horses in the betting are wildly unlikely runners: The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court are first and second favourites for the Derby and are both expected to head to Epsom next, while Twain is struggling from a niggling injury and won’t be seen again until later in the season.

Summary

Jonquil does have one inexplicable blowout on his CV, but his other three races paint the picture of a colt who oozes quality. It would be quite a surprise if he failed to place in the mile showpiece for the colts on the opening day of Royal Ascot – the implied place odds are almost 5/2 – while on the win front he looks the biggest threat to likely favourite Field of Gold. This article is written in advance of the Irish 2000 Guineas (in which said Field of Gold is odds-on) as we do not see any outcome at The Curragh which would not lead to Jonquil shortening for the SJP, which includes a win by an outsider. In short, the 12/1 looks absolutely huge.

Recommendation: Back Jonquil each-way at 12/1 to win the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on 17 June with Bet365, William Hill, or 888.