Hong Kong Mile: Sign up for a rush at an improbable 20/1

There is so much high-quality racing in Japan and Hong Kong in the final quarter of the year that some things can get lost in the mêlée of top races being priced up in antepost markets.

One such oversight is the price of Soul Rush for the Hong Kong Mile on 13 December. We believe it's plain wrong to price up this horse (who was runner-up in the race last year) at 20/1.

For those unfamiliar with this horse, Soul Rush won Japan's premier turf mile race last November (G1 Mile Championship, Kyoto), by an impressive 2.5 lengths (Racing Post: "ran on strongly to lead final 140 yards, drew clear towards finish"). He then went on to finish second in the Hong Kong Mile to Voyage Bubble three weeks later.

But Soul Rush arguably improved again after that. Sent to the Middle East in the spring, he edged out the top-class Romantic Warrior in this year's Dubai Turf in April after a terrific stretch run. That's world-class turf form.

True, Soul Rush has been beaten twice since (into third both times) at Tokyo racecourse, once back in June, the second time two weeks ago after a break of more than four months. Perhaps this explains his generous price for a repeat Hong Kong Mile bid this year.

But being beaten before a big race has become something of a modus operandi for this horse, who lost his prep races as heavy favourite in a lower grade prior to both the two G1 races referred to above. What's more, it's clear that Soul Rush is a horse who operates on a slightly lesser level at Tokyo (scene of his last two defeats) than he does elsewhere.

Indeed, despite a number of very respectable performances, Yasutoshi Ikii's charge has never actually won at Tokyo racecourse. Here are Soul Rush's finishing positions (0 = tenth or worse) for his last 20 races:

• Tokyo: 0 2 9 3 2 3 3

  
  

• Other: 1 1 1 4 3 1 2 4 1 1 2 3 1

Soul Rush's next race will be the defence of his Mile Championship at Kyoto on 23 November, for which he is currently 15/2 on the back of his recent defeat. We think that's a mispricing. But we are even keener to play him in the Hong Kong Mile at Sha Tin three weeks later.

This will be his third trip to Hong Kong for this race, having also finished fourth in the 2023 edition. We believe he has a decent chance of going one better this year, and a huge chance of placing. He was announced as an intended runner this morning on the Japanese website Netkeiba, having delighted his trainer with his most recent work ("He put in a great run in the last 100 metres. It was just like the final stretch in the Dubai Turf.").

It's worth noting that Jantar Mantar, who has beaten Soul Rush in his last two races and is heavy favourite for this year's Mile Championship at Kyoto, also raced in last year's Hong Kong Mile. But whereas Soul Rush finished runner-up in that race, his recent conqueror came a dismal 13th. And yet Jantar Mantar is 4/1 for this year's running (despite being an uncertain participant), a fifth of his compatriot's price.

All is far from lost if Soul Rush fails in his bid to retain the Mile Championship in ten days, three weeks prior to the Hong Kong Mile. We would expect his price for Hong Kong to contract even if he is narrowly beaten, whereas if he wins we expect him to be vying for favouritism on 13 December.

Of course, there is a risk that – despite his remarkable consistency – Soul Rush underperforms badly at Kyoto and his proposed trip to Hong Kong is aborted. But we believe this worst-case scenario is adequately compensated for by the current price.

As this is an illiquid market, the price will almost certainly be cut quickly after publication of this article (particularly by Unibet, who in our opinion have the least stomach for price retention of any bookmaker when it comes to international antepost markets). But there may well be value even after the first cut (see below).

Given his record, the each-way angle appeals greatly.

Recommendation: Back Soul Rush each-way at 20/1 to win the Hong Kong Mile at Sha Tin on 13 December with Bet365 and Unibet. Anything equivalent to 14/1 or greater is acceptable.