Neom Turf Cup: Classy Boughey recruit shouldn't be 16/1 in weak G1

The Saudi Cup meeting in Riyadh, inaugurated half a decade ago and headlined by the USD 20 million race that gives the meeting its name, has a good undercard but one that still struggles to attract the very best turf horses.

That's particularly true of the showpiece middle-distance turf race over 10.5 furlongs, the Neom Turf Cup. The 2026 edition has doubled its purse to a hefty USD 3 million in keeping with an upgrade to Group 1 status, but it's difficult to judge this year's field as anything but a so-so G2 when compared to what Europe and Japan offer at the top level, or indeed Dubai's Sheema Classic. The biggest stars of the turf scene are still resting at this time of year.

Favourite Shin Emperor has been running in all the best global turf races but has not delivered in any of them recently (last four form figs: 7680). At the time of writing he was priced up at just 2/1 to repeat his easy win in this race last year. Really? Apart from anything else, last year's edition also featured a far from stellar field in which the only other horse with G1 pretensions (Al Riffa) didn't run to his level. No appeal.

Slightly more enticing than the market leader this year is the solid G2 yardstick Royal Champion (4/1), but that horse's recent win in Bahrain – when less than a length ahead of the reopposing Galen (12/1) – was hardly a performance make his rivals in this race tremble. Still, Karl Burke's charge feels more like a a favourite in this race than the actual favourite.

Co-second favourite Alohi Alii looked the business in the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano in August but flopped in the Arc. That's excusable, but Japan's second string hasn't done anything else in his short career that would merit a price this short (4/1).

Add in Facteur Cheval, who hasn't won over this trip, hasn't won a race of any description for almost two years, and boasts recent form figures of 37669 yet is priced up at 8/1, and we feel there must be value at greater odds in this antepost market.

And there surely is. We see this in the classy Survie at 16/1, who returned from a three-month break to record a facile win in a prep run at Lingfield on Saturday. This ex-French mare (who we advised backing at 25/1 in the G1 Pretty Polly last summer and duly delivered a place payout) has consistent turf form at the highest level having faced the likes of Aventure, Whirl, Kalpana and Quisisana last season. Those G1 races were deeper waters than most of these have ever swum in. Survie's flop last time out – in a G1 over 14 furlongs on Arc weekend last October – can readily be forgiven given the inappropriate trip on unfavourable soft ground. That's why she's a price here.

The recent acquisition by the Tabors catches the eye, as does the move to the excellent George Boughey, who has a realistic chance of improving this mare further. Survie's comeback at Lingfield today (1305 Saturday, easy win against overmatched opponents in a nothing race) was perfectly satisfactory for all that it was little more than a paid workout, and we think there's a very good chance she can get a piece of this weak Group 1.

The final icing on the cake is that there is every chance that Ryan Moore will remain on board given his retainer with The Lads.

We're playing.

Recommendation Back Survie each-way at 16/1 with William Hill to win the Neom Turf Cup on 14 February 2026.