Wolferton Stakes: Group 2 winner shouldn't be 25/1 in this listed race

One of the greatest psychological pitfalls lying in wait for those who like to bet on horses is the allure of a horse who has won for them before. The seductive syllogism runs a bit like this: "Mary's Bonnet won big for me last time, Mary's Bonnet is running again today, I'm definitely going to back Mary's Bonnet."

But to state the bleeding obvious, Situation A in which Mary Bonnet delivered is going to be different to Situation B. The latter needs to be evaluated in complete isolation from the previous win, with only one issue at stake: Is Mary's Bonnet attractively priced in the constellation of Situation B alone?

The AntePoster writes all this preamble because, for the first time in our 18-month-history, we are about to put up a horse for the third time. This needed careful thinking time overnight, in case our instinctive feel about her chances ("that price is not right") was based on familiarity bias for a mare that has delivered for us (and our followers) twice before.

The horse in question is Survie* in the Wolferton Stakes, who is currently priced at 25/1. We think she is a bet for the following reasons:

A) Back class: This filly has form that most of the rest of the field can only dream of. Second in a French Oaks (beaten just a neck). Eight Group 1 runs, with a record of 27732403. A Group 2 winner, and a Group 2 runner-up finish behind the G1 winner Aventure. It's a serious body of form that puts her right at the top of this pack on ratings (see below for specifics).

B) Dirtied-up form: The move to George Boughey, one of Britain's most talented trainers, has rather gone sour on the face of it. Following an odds-on win in a nothing race at Kempton, Survie then finished a respectable third to the classy Royal Champion in the (otherwise rather weak) G1 Neom Turf Cup in Riyadh. However, this has been followed by two poor efforts in the form of a lacklustre 4th (at odds of 9/4) in a fillies-only listed race at Kempton, followed by an equally sobering 3rd (given that she was beaten a whopping ten lengths) in the fillies-only G2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas Day.

We feel there were excuses for those last two runs. In particular, we are very doubtful that this filly wants to go a step shorter than ten furlongs. Her four best run lifetime runs on ratings have come over 10 furlongs, 10.5 furlongs (x2) and 12 furlongs, yet in her last two races Survie has competed over 8 and 9 furlongs. We doubt that's what she wants to do. In addition, she must have conceded the field at least six lengths last time out in the Dahlia when "dwelling" at the start, so the margin of defeat is exaggerated.

Now back over ten furlongs for the first time in a while, she has every chance of proving she is too classy for most of these rivals in a race that is highly likely to be run at a decent clip. Survie is top-rated on Racing Post Racings and co-second rated on Timeform ratings, so viewed through this prism the current 25/1 is a nonsense.

The win versus each-way debate is a tense one. On the one hand, this will be large field where four-place terms are a certainty and the odd bookmaker may offer five. On the other, we wouldn't be surprised to see this mare go off at less than half of her current price by the time those offers are on the table. We'll take the 5/1 effectively offered now for a top-three finish in addition to the win bet.

* Survie delivered a place payout for our followers in both the G1 Pretty Polly (third to Whirl at 18/1, recommended e/w at 25/1) and the G1 Neom Turf Cup (third to Royal Champion at 9/2, recommended e/w at 16/1).

Recommendation: Back Survie each-way at 25/1 with William Hill, 888, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetMGM, Bresbet or Virginbet to win the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot on Tuesday 16 July. The 22/1 with Betfred or Boylesports is OK too. When that goes, wait for four-place terms.