Saudi Cup: Classy US invaders shouldn't be overlooked at big prices

IMPORTANT NOTE: MAGNITUDE HAS SPIKED A FEVER AND WILL NOT TRAVEL TO SAUDI. DO NOT BACK THIS HORSE.

The world's richest race is set to take place in just under two weeks' time at King Abdulaziz racecourse in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. A purse of USD 20,000,000 is up for grabs. Just had to write out those noughts...unreal.

No surprise the world's most accomplished dirt horse, Japan's Forever Young, is back to defend his crown. And no surprise that two of America's top trainers are turning up in an attempt to claim the lion's share of the pot by saddling a fourth US winner in seven years.

But when all's said and done, perhaps Forever Young (5/4) just wins. It could be that simple. There's no Romantic Warrior this time, no Sovereignty making the trip over either. Indeed, we wouldn't put anyone off a win bet if Yoshito Yahagi's charge is around even money on the day. Alas, he probably won't be. But in our view, taking a "shortie" on an antepost basis is one of the quicker ways to the poorhouse.

The AntePoster likes the each-way angle on a couple of US raiders here and would be very surprised if one of them didn't hit the board. And maybe more. We are keen on them in particular because there is plenty of filler in this race, while at the same time we want to take on the second favourite, Nysos, from the Baffert stable. There's always plenty of hype around this fellow, but it's looking increasingly unjustified.

Nysos is unbeaten in four but has hardly blown viewers' minds in his last three wins over a mile or more. The G2 San Diego Handicap was a race of very poor quality in the context of this contest (Miramahdi, anyone?). He then scraped home in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile from a lesser stablemate, having elected to skip the Classic (a telling development in itself). And then scraped home again by the same margin from stablemate Nevada Beach in the G2 Laffit Pincay Jr. to close out his 2025 season.

The horse he beat very narrowly in that last race, Nevada Beach, is our first play at 14/1. Unlike Nysos, he's a Group 1 winner over this 9-furlong trip, having taken down Full Serrano in the G1 Goodwood Stakes last autumn when that horse was on a winning run that included the 2024 BC Dirt Mile. And with just a head separating Nevada Beach and Nysos last time out, we know which horse we would rather have our money on with the former trading at more than three times' the price of his more highly-touted stablemate.

The other horse we want on board is Steve Asmussen's Magnitude at 12/1. This lad has come a long way from the days when he was a need-the-lead type who might run gaudy speed figures but also go missing without trace (Iroquois, Lecomte, Travers). This son of Not This Time has now put up four strong back-to-back performances since the disaster behind Sovereignty at Saratoga, and has added grit to go with his natural speed and talent.

Another angle with Magnitude is his trainer's record in the Middle East. The three big guns Asmussen has flown over to Saudi Arabia (two of which were for the same connections, Winchell Thoroughbreds) have all hit the board in Riyadh, with Midnight Bourbon being placed in this very race and Midnight Bisou actually winning it (via disqualification, as the first-past-the-post Maximum Security was on drugs and his serial-doping trainer is now doing time). In short, Asmussen doesn't send horses here speculatively.

Both Nevada Beach and Magnitude face a huge task in toppling the reigning champ. We get that. But they have strong place chances in this race for gazillions, and stranger things than Forever Young losing have happened in the short history of this race.

William Hill are longest on both.

Antepost recommendation for Saudi Cup, Riyadh, 14 February

Back Magnitude each-way @ 12/1 Back Nevada Beach each-way @ 14/1 12s on Nevada Beach OK if cut from the above price.