2026 Kentucky Oaks: Take these two exciting fillies at double figures

We recommended throwing three arrows at the Kentucky Oaks dartboard last winter in a market where we were doubtful about the fillies heading the antepost betting. Arguably wasteful, but our 14/1 pick Good Cheer duly delivered on the first Friday in May, having been bet down to 7/5 by the time the stalls opened. It was a comprehensive victory too.

In retrospect, it was rather a fortuitous result. After all, Good Cheer peaked on that day in May and didn't record another win: remarkably, this previously unbeaten filly (7 straight victories up to and including the Oaks) would only achieve a top-3 position on one occasion in her subsequent three runs (runner-up in the G1 Alabama Stakes). Still a bit of a headscratcher why... but we'll take the good fortune of having her still in raging form on the day that mattered and move on.

This year's market appeals too. As is usual at this time of year, the favourite is the winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, Super Corredora. This filly has to be considered a worthy contender – and she's posting "bullet" workouts over sprint distances in training for what that's worth – but trainer John Sadler wouldn't be the greatest shipper of horses outside his native California (the BC Juvenile Fillies was of course at Del Mar). He has never won the Kentucky Oaks but did have the favourite in the 2015 edition: she finished a well-beaten fourth.

Add to this the doubts over Super Corredora being able to dominate a 14-horse field from the front like she did a much smaller field in the BC Juvenile Fillies, and we want to look elsewhere. Two fillies in particular stand out at current prices:

Explora @12/1

• Trained by Bob Baffert, who has won the Kentucky Oaks three times

• 0.75 length runner-up to Super Corredora in the BC Juvenile Filles

• Has already proven herself in 2026, blitzing an overmatched field in the 7-furlong Santa Ynez Stakes in a fast time

• That was an eyecatching and surprising cutback in distance for this daughter of Blame (out of a Bernardini mare), who is bred for every yard of the nine furlongs of the Kentucky Oaks

• Is as short as 6/1 favourite with some bookmakers; we believe the Flutter pair have her clearly mispriced at double that price

Zany @12/1

• Trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won the Kentucky Oaks four times

• Very late seasonal start in 2025: only made debut (at Gulfstream) a couple of days after the BC Juvenile Filles was run at Del Mar

• Debut win was an easy one and very fast on the clock

• Second and only other start was even more impressive, as she disembowelled the opposition in the G2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct (over 9 furlongs, the Kentucky Oaks distance) to the tune of 8.5 lengths; speed figure was again striking

• This unbeaten daughter of American Pharaoh has star potential, and we are not surprised she is as short as 8/1 favourite with some bookmakers; the Flutter pair are again standout at 12/1
  

Summary There's an awful lot of water to flow under the Kentucky Oaks bridge, but Explora and Zany look the most exciting pair in this antepost market. To our eyes they are badly overpriced, with any amount of potential to shorten dramatically over the next three months. With their versatile running styles they appeal strongly as speculative win-only plays, and we believe the chance of one of them being garlanded with the "Lilies for the Fillies" is significantly lower than the combined price reflected by the market.

As the antepost market in question is fairly illiquid and these 12/1 quotes are only available with a twinned pair of bookmakers, we doubt they will last long after publication of this article. Once this price has gone, 10/1 is OK as a minimum threshold in both cases.

Recommendation Back Explora and Zany (each at 12/1) to win the Kentucky Oaks on 1 May 2026 with Paddy Power or Skybet. Win only.