Japan Cup: Prospective field analysis three weeks out

At the end of last week, the JRA released the latest list of possible entrants for the Japan Cup, one of the major highlights of the Japanese racing calendar.

Without pulling any betting trigger at the moment, The AntePoster thought it might be useful to mull on the state of the market three weeks out from the race and summarize the appeal of likely contenders based on their current prices.

It should be emphasized that there is a wide spectrum of "participation probabilities" in the list of horses currently quoted for the race by bookmakers, and any antepost wager should be made in consideration of this crucial point.

Let's start from the top of the market and work down.

Calandagan

Best price 5/2; Timeform rating 133

Hardly needs any introduction to European readers. This 4-year-old gelding can reasonably lay claim to being the best middle-distance turf horse in the world right now based on both ratings, form and achievements over the last few months. After a string of second places in races at the highest level in late 2024 and the first half of 2025 (Champion Stakes, Dubai Sheema Classic, Coronation Cup), he has since racked up a sequence of three Group 1 wins, seeing off many a crack European middle-distance flat horse (Aventure, Kalpana, Rebel's Romance, Ombudsman) along the way. And he did it impressively on each occasion.

The Japan Cup is Calandagan's clear target after connections elected to skip the Breeders Cup Turf earlier this month. However, living up to his reputation on an unfamiliar racetrack the other side of the world is a different matter. Perhaps 5/2 will look appealing on the day, but given a long flight and the extended quarantine process in Japan ahead of him (international raiders don't always find it easy, though the hosts have built new bespoke facilities) it doesn't tempt us in antepost.

Masquerade Ball

Best price 7/2; Timeform rating 121

Has seen the backside of Croix du Nord on no less than three occasions over the last year, but has now arguably overtaken that rival to become Japan's leading colt of the classic generation. After a long summer break, Masquerade Ball returned in early November to win the Autumn Tenno Sho (over 10 furlongs) in good style with wicked closing splits: the time of 32.7 seconds recorded for the final three furlongs was the quickest in the race's history. It's also worth noting that only four three-year olds had previously won this race (which dates back 36 years), the most recent of whom was the superstar Equinox. That's lofty company.

The Japan Cup is apparently the main target for Masquerade Ball as long as he recovers fully from his recent exertions. However, we note that he is still entered in the Hong Kong Cup (over the Tenno Sho distance) as well as the Hong Kong Vase (Japan Cup distance), both races being staged just two weeks after this engagement. Combined with the concern voiced by connections over his recovery, this raises a slight antepost doubt in our minds.

If he turns up – and that looks like being the most likely scenario by some way – he's a big threat to Calandagan. Indeed, he may well go off favourite in local betting pools. But not for us three weeks out at 4/1.

Croix du Nord

Best price 6/1; Timeform rating 122

The AntePoster was excited about the prospects of this talented colt for the Arc de Triomphe, but Parisian rainfall and the wide draw inflicted on him in the run-up to that race dealt him hammer blows. His wide-margin defeat is likely explained by one or both of these factors, possibly exacerbated by an early aggressive move to overcome a shocking draw, but it would be folly to ignore his 2024 Japanese Derby win over Masquerade Ball (third successive besting of that rival) or his G3 Prix du Prince d'Orange win over subsequent Arc winner Daryz, to whom he was conceding a a Group 1 weight penalty.

Croix du Nord would be a serious contender here back on good or firm ground, which is what Tokyo racecourse typically serves up in late November. That said, the Arc experience clearly took something out of this colt, and he is not yet race-fit. Connections have made it clear that their charge will have only one more run this year, and while the Japan Cup is the target for now they could yet redirect Croix du Nord to the Arima Kinen in late December if they feel he needs more time.

In short, there is elevated antepost risk attached to this colt. We'll say no to 6/1 at this stage, but if he turns up fit and well he's likely to be much shorter.

Redentor [NOT EXPECTED TO PARTICIPATE]

Best price 8/1; Timeform rating 122

Classy 4-year-old who crowned a fine three-year-old season by coming second to Urban Chic in the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St Leger) over 15 furlongs last September. Has won both his starts in 2025, most recently the Spring Tenno Sho over two miles back in April, where he saw off a typically strong field that included Byzantine Dream, among others.

The connections of Redentor had pencilled in a possible European campaign this year, including both York's International Stakes in August and the Arc de Triomphe in October. However, he sustained a serious muscular injury in early July and was withdrawn from training to recover. Hopes that he might make the Japan Cup look to have dwindled, and we are doubtful that this fellow will line up in three weeks' time (he is not even quoted for the race by William Hill).

In addition to the doubts over his readiness, Redentor still has to prove that he has the turn of foot to compete with the very best over 12 furlongs. His best form has come over much further. As we also doubt his attendance, we don't like him at all as an antepost prospect at 8/1.

Meisho Tabaru [NOT EXPECTED TO PARTICIPATE]

Best price 10/1; Timeform rating 123

The majority of this 4-year-old's form doesn't look good enough to compete at this stellar level, but his emphatic, three-length win in the Takarazuka Kinen in June – in which he led almost all the way against a high-quality field – is a performance that deserves serious attention, for all that it looks something of a form outlier.

On the negative side, that was a race in which it clearly paid to be up with the pace (first two home led from almost three furlongs out). Meisho Tabaru also failed to replicate that performance ten days ago in the Autumn Tenno Sho (led, faded to sixth), and Japanese racing website Netkeiba suggests that his next target will be the Arima Kinen at the end of the year. Note that two of the four bookmakers offering odds on the Japan Cup do not even price him up.

All in all, a fairly unappealing antepost prospect at 10/1.

Danon Decile

Best price 10/1; Timeform rating 125

Last seen in the Juddmonte International at York in August, where he never got close to being competitive: looked very edgy before the race and didn't really settle at the head the chasing pack behind runaway pacemaker Birr Castle, ultimately fading right out of it.

Throw that run out, however, and Danon Decile's form stands up to the closest of scrutiny. He saw off Calandagan in the Dubai Sheema Classic back in April, while analysis of his three-year-old career throws up various pieces of high-class form, not least when running out an impressive two-length winner of the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) over the course and distance of the Japan Cup in May 2024. Interestingly, that is his only run contested at Tokyo racecourse to date.

Danon Decile appeals as very dangerous competitor if he returns in top form from a long break (won Japanese Derby after a four-month layoff), particularly as his two excellent G1 wins have come over this 12-furlong trip.

We reckon the antepost price of 10/1 is pretty reasonable.

Bellagio Opera  [NOT EXPECTED TO PARTICIPATE]

Best price 14/1; Timeform rating 121

Has not shied from taking on the very best over the last two years, with his last six races all coming at Group 1 level and returning finishing positions (all in double-figure fields) of 136412. Of these runs, his last-but-one performance was particularly notable, as he shattered the track record when winning the Osaka Hai in April.

On the other hand, Bellagio Opera's profile indicates a clear preference for ten furlongs (no victories recorded at any other distance), and all the newsflow points to this 5-year-old heading to the Hong Kong Cup in mid-December instead. Indeed, he is not even quoted for the Japan Cup by two of the four bookmakers pricing up this race.

We like this horse, but don't touch him in the antepost market at 14/1.

Tastiera

Best price 14/1; Timeform rating 121

Winner of the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in 2023 and has performed with distinction on a number of occasions since, most notably in the 2024 Autumn Tenno Sho (runner-up to Do Deuce), in the Hong Kong Cup six weeks later at Sha Tin (3rd to Romantic Warrior), and then when winning the QEII Cup at the same venue back in April this year. Took a long break over the hot Japanese summer before returning in the Autumn Tenno Sho last week, where he took the lead a furlong out but faded tamely into 8th.

Tastiera has bundles of talent and should perhaps not be judged too harshly on that most recent effort, his first race in six months. Of much greater concern to the antepost bettor should be his participation: he has never run in a Japan Cup and looks an obvious candidate to have another crack at Romantic Warrior in the Hong Kong Cup two weeks later, over a track that clearly suits him well.

Nice colt, but as we doubt his attendance he's a dreadful antepost play at 14/1.

Justin Palace

Best price 14/1; Timeform rating 120

A warrior of a horse who has been a standing dish at Group 1 level in Japan for an aeon, having contested no other grade of race since winning the Spring Tenno Sho back in April 2023. His 13 attempts to replicate that G1 victory have been unsuccessful, although figures of 324404456633 (average field size: 15) testify to his consistency in a country with a deeper pool of 12-furlong thoroughbreds than any other.

The obvious question to ask is where Justin Palace stands from a form perspective right now, and here there are grounds for optimism – he finished just a length behind Masquerade Ball when third in the Autumn Tenno Sho after a break of more than five months. That's encouraging, not least as this son of Deep Impact typically shows improvement from his first run after a layoff.

This 6-year-old will probably need that improvement and then some to land the spoils here, but he represents one of the more credible place contenders on 30 November.

Looks a little overpriced at 14/1, and an obvious one to consider in extra place markets closer to the race.

Al Riffa [NOT EXPECTED TO TRAVEL]

Best price 18/1; Timeform rating 125

Proved disappointing as second-favourite for the Melbourne Cup last week (beaten nine lengths into 7th having been given a rather exaggerated waiting ride), although still emerges as one of the best horses in that race at the weights.

Rated on his strongest racecourse performance, Al Riffa would come here as one of the best horses in the field, but we are sceptical of his ability to take on Japan's best – not to mention Calandagan – in over 12 furlongs in Tokyo. His two wins this season have been over 14 furlongs, and the peak Timeform figure of 125 assigned to him two races back (Irish St Leger) was earned on good to soft ground in a race where a number of key players underperformed. With no strength in depth in that race, we suspect that form is overrated.

Furthermore, Al Riffa looks to us like an unlikely runner, with the horse's new Australian connections more likely for the Hong Kong Vase two weeks after the Japan Cup.

No antepost appeal at 18/1.

Admire Terra

Best price 25/1; Timeform rating 118

Progressive 4-year-old who has won five of his ten starts and three of his last five. His penultimate start was his first run at Tokyo racecourse, so it was notable that his first ever Group 2 win came at the venue of the Japan Cup. What's more, the first two home were well clear of the rest of the field.

True, Admire Terra was only fourth (as favourite) in his most recent run, the G2 Kyoto Daishoten, but he was beaten little more than a length there in what was his first run for four months after a summer break. Needs to replicate his best and then some to win a race of this calibre, but could easily have more upside.

Not impossible for a place come the day, doesn't appeal at the current 25/1.

Durezza

Best price 20/1; Timeform rating 119

Brilliant in 2023, winning all three starts including the Japanese St Leger. Mixed bag in 2024, with a reasonable G2 return in March followed by a complete flop in the Spring Tenno Sho, a so-so 5th in the Juddmonte International, and finally a superb second (dead-heated) in the Japan Cup under an enterprising ride.

Things have gone wrong for Durezza in 2025, however. A third-place finish in the Dubai Sheema Classic in April was respectable, but he then finished a lacklustre 9th of 19 (beaten 8 lengths) in the Takarazuka Kinen in June before taking a break for the summer. His reappearance run in the G2 Kyoto Daishoten in early October was not a great deal better (8th of 18), although it should be pointed out he was beaten only 3 lengths.

It's not easy to assess Durezza in the context of this race. On the one hand it's difficult to forget how close he came in this race last year. On the other, his 2024 Japan Cup performance may well have owed plenty to a canny ride in a race with little early pace, and he has hardly advertised his claims for a repeat bid in his last two runs.

Looks a wild card win play rather than an each-way sort. We won't play antepost at 20/1 but he would make us nervous at that price on the day.

Shin Emperor

Best price 20/1; Timeform rating 124

Smart 2-year-old who took his form to a new level at three with a podium placing in the Japanese Derby over 12 furlongs and the same position in the Irish Champion Stakes over 10 furlongs. Got stuck in the mud in the 2024 Arc de Triomphe before coming within a neck of winning this race last year.

A bit like Durezza (with whom he dead-heated for 2nd in the 2024 running), Shin Emperor has rather gone the wrong way this season. He was a facile winner against lesser foes in the G2 Neom Turf Cup in Saudi Arabia at the start of the year, but was then very disappointing in the Dubai Sheema Classic (7th of 9, raced too keenly). Again disappointed in the Irish Champion Stakes, failing to replicate his strong showing of 2024, before then being withdrawn from contention for the Arc de Triomphe after a pulmonary issue.

Although his form now looks well and truly dirtied up, Shin Emperor is priced accordingly, and 20/1 (Hills only, as short at 8/1 elsewhere) doesn't look at all unreasonable for a proven Group 1 performer who has only ever run well at Tokyo racecourse.

Brede Weg

20/1; Timeform rating 114

Has never run over this trip of 12 furlongs, but this 5-year-old mare is a Group 1 winner, and that race (Queen Elizabeth II Cup, November 2023) came over the longest trip she has ever tried (just short of 11 furlongs).

However, her last two runs (both over 10 furlongs) have seen Brede Weg finish 6th in the Group 3 Niigata Kinen (August 2025) and 10th in the Autumn Tenno Sho in early November, with a whole clutch of this field ahead of her.

She's doesn't look good enough to compete on all recent form, and has a history of being overbet (has started single figures in her last five races in Japan, twice as favourite, without being placed). We are not interested even at 20/1.

Dubai Honour  [NOT EXPECTED TO TRAVEL]

Best price 25/1; Timeform rating 123

Admirable servant to connections and a proper moneyspinner over many seasons, but he has been well placed to achieve his Group 1 successes. All his wins at that level have come in fairly weak fields (typically in Australia) and he has generally been thrashed in his attempts to win at the highest level in his home country.

As this gelding is now a 7-year-old, we seriously doubt his ability to be competitive in a high-class contest like the Japan Cup, and the likely fast ground would be yet another negative. What's more, our lack of antepost enthusiasm is compounded by doubts over his participation (also entered in Hong Kong Vase two weeks later, which looks a much more likely target).

No appeal at 25/1.

Minnie Hauk  [NOT EXPECTED TO TRAVEL]

Best price 25/1; Timeform rating 127

Would be a massive threat to win this race at her best following a stellar year in which she notched up three Group 1 wins against her own sex before running an almighty race in the Arc de Triomphe. Here she yielded only in the final stages, beaten just a head by Daryz, the pair well clear of the chasing pack.

However, a Breeders Cup Turf bid at the start of November went badly awry: she finished a well-beaten sixth despite going off as 6/4 favourite. Minnie Hauk is still entered in this race at the time of writing, but we would expect her to be rested for a 2026 campaign rather than potentially being ruined by a race too far. And we'd have serious doubts about her chances in Tokyo in the unlikely event of "The Lads" rolling the dice one more time in 2025.

25/1 is theoretically a huge antepost price for a filly so talented. But it still doesn't appeal.

Sunrise Earth

Best price 25/1; Timeform rating 119

Decent horse with a respectable record but has been found wanting on all three occasions he has dipped his toe into Group 1 waters (12th in the 2024 Satsuki Sho, 4th to Danon Decile in the 20024 Tokyo Yushun, 4th to Redentor in the 2025 Spring Tenno Sho).

Returned from a 5-month summer break to finish second to Deep Monster in the G2 Kyoto Daishoten in early October. Needs that to have propelled him forward considerably to play a hand in this, but he's still quite lightly raced and may have more upside now that he has reached his physical peak.

Not completely out of this, but we reckon 25/1 looks about right.

Deep Monster

Best price 25/1; Timeform rating 118

Among the most experienced in the field after a career spanning five seasons and encompassing 26 runs (6 wins). However, it's difficult to get enthusiastic about this 7-year-old gelding on the basis of his record in G1 company (finishing positions: 7050), nor does a string of ten defeats in lower grades from November 2023 to August 2025 set the pulse racing.

However, Deep Monster ran the race of his life last time out to break that losing run in the G2 Kyoto Daishoten, so he is clearly in the form of his life. Connections were given an automatic berth in the Autumn Tenno Sho for that last win but bypassed the opportunity, so quite possibly they have saved him for this race.

No antepost appeal at 25/1, but in the event of rain coming (last-time-out win was on G/S) he'd be one to consider on extended place terms.

Goliath [NOT EXPECTED TO TRAVEL]

Best price 25/1; Timeform rating 120

Looked to have the middle-distance flat racing world at his feet following a stunning win in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July 2024, and was purchased by Resolute Racing accordingly.

However, this 5-year-old gelding has not run to that level since, and his only G1 win in his last eight starts was fairly weak affair in Germany in which Dubai Honour was the only other runner of Group 1 calibre. Most recently finished a very disappointing 11th in the Breeders Cup Turf at Del Mar just ten days ago.

Connections are now looking at another ambitious tilt at this prize following Goliath's so-so showing last year, when he was beaten three lengths in 6th place. It's just possible that an end-to-end gallop in a large field could see him return to his best, but equally it takes a leap of faith to see him delivering a top-level performance after that recent Breeders Cup flop.

25/1 is probably a fair reflection of where he is right now compared to last year.

Los Angeles [NOT EXPECTED TO TRAVEL]

Best price 33/1; Timeform rating 118

Looked a serious prospect for top middle-distance honours this year after a decent 3-year-old season in 2024, not least when he added to his Group 1 tally in May by winning a stronger-than-usual Tattersalls Gold Cup from the likes of Anmaat and Kalpana.

But his season unravelled in the G1 Prince of Wales at Ascot, where he (and his pacemaker) set brutal, unsustainable fractions on the front end before fading badly in the straight. By his own trainer's confession the race took a huge amount out of Los Angeles, prompting a much-needed summer break. But we don't think that break was long enough. His second-half campaign failed to see him recapture his early-season form, and he duly finished 4th of six in the G3 Royal Whip (August), 4th of nine in the Prix Foy (September), and plumb last of 22 in the Arc de Triomphe.

This race is now the clear target, but it's very difficult to believe that Los Angeles could somehow produce a lifetime best at the end of this month after such a troubled campaign.

Little antepost appeal at 33/1.

Yoho Lake

Best price 40/1; Timeform rating 117

Relatively lightly raced for a 7-year-old, having had just 15 starts in a career punctuated by an absence of more than two years (January 2022 to March 2024), but this hiatus has not stopped him compiling a very respectable record of five wins, of which two were gained at G3 level and another two against G2 company.

Yoko Lake has not been entirely disgraced in his five attempts at the highest level, but his two best positionings (3rd in the Hopeful Stakes as a 2-year-old in 2020, 3rd to Bellagio Opera in the Osaka Hai earlier this year) do not make him a serious candidate in a race this hot.

We can't make an antepost case for this one even at 40/1.

Seiun Hades

Best price 40/1; Timeform rating 117

Has exactly the same wins-to-runs record as Yoho Lake (5 wins from 15 starts), but unlike that rival has never won in Group 2 company. What's more, all his three attempts at Group 1 company have ended in failure (11/18, 17/18, 7/14).

As well as being out of his depth in this level, there is also the matter of distance – 12 furlongs doesn't look the best fit for this horse either on breeding or on form (all five wins have come at distances between 7 and 10 furlongs).

All that said, Seiun Hades finished not much more than two lengths behind Masquerade Ball in the Autumn Tenno Sho in early November, which was his first run after a summer break and arguably the best performance of his career to date.

No antepost appeal, but one to reconsider later on extended place terms his current 40/1 or bigger.

Queenstown [NOT EXPECTED TO TRAVEL]

Best price 100/1; Timeform rating 113

By some way the least accomplished and most lowly-rated in this field, having never won in stakes company.

There is some mild encouragement to be had from his recent runs. Queenstown ran third to Ethical Diamond (carrying same weight) in the Ebor Handicap at York in August, form that was given a proper polish by Willie Mullins's horse winning the Breeders Cup Turf. He was also placed in two fairly weak Group 1 races in France over longer distances on soft ground in his last two starts.

All in all, however, we suspect he has been entered to make the pace for stablemate Los Angeles, and 100/1 looks about right on that basis.