Queen Mary Stakes: American raider to take Royal Ascot by storm

A posse of American raiders coming over to Royal Ascot to contest the big juvenile sprints is a familiar sight in the middle week in June. Typically these are associated with veteran US trainer Wesley Ward, who has had considerable success over the years with both male and female two-year-old sprinters. But as a rule, a promising Ward youngster is well found in the market nowadays, and in recent years his speedsters have not really delivered at what have typically been short prices. This year, for example, the promising (and huge) colt Outfielder has already been well found in the market for the Norfolk Stakes, where he sits as co-favourite at 3/1.

Fellow US trainer Patrick Biancone also has a history of sending horses to Ascot but not for several decades, so has attracted little attention with an extremely promising filly by the name of Lennilu, who currently trades at 8/1 for the Queen Mary stakes, which opens the Royal Ascot card on Wednesday 18 June. The AntePoster believes this one is worthy of a wager, and can readily believe it would be trading at half its current price if it were in the Ward barn.

Brilliant winner of established Ascot prep race on second start

Lennilu has won both her starts in the US easily. The first of these was a win over Keeneland’s dirt surface in early April, which she won by a length over a sloppy track. Biancone then switched this daughter of freshman sire Leinster to the grass to contest the valuable Royal Palm Stakes at Gulfstream.

To say she won the Royal Palm easily would be an understatement. Sent to the front immediately but then reined back to sit off a rival who was determined to lead, Lennilu took control easily before the top of the straight before surging clear, ultimately reaching the winning post almost four lengths clear of runner-up Bibi Dahl, with a similar distance back to the third-placed horse.

For those who might doubt the Royal Palm as a reliable yardstick for a winner at Royal Ascot, it should be pointed out that the 2023 edition of this Gulfstream sprint for fillies was won by a certain Crimson Advocate. Trainer George Weaver promptly brought that filly over to Royal Ascot and she duly won that year's edition of the Queen Mary Stakes.

Form murky but speed figure shines bright

The form of Lennilu' first start has been franked by both the second and third to pass the wire in that race. With no runbacks, quite what Lennilu beat over the turf in Florida is more difficult to assess, particularly in the context of the Queen Mary, where she will face the fastest UK and Irish runners with completely different form lines. That said, the only filly to finish within eight lengths of her at Gulfstream, Bibi Dahl, is a highly regarded, $1.25-million purchase who will be heading over to Royal Ascot herself to contest the Albany Stakes over an extra furlong two days after the Queen Mary.

As an additional factor, the US clock-watchers gave Lennilu the thumbs-up for her Royal Palm romp, awarding her a strong Brisnet speed figure. Although Ascot's five furlongs will be a stiffer stamina test, her dam’s sire was a dual G1 winner over seven furlongs, so there are good grounds for believing Biancone's filly will be able to sustain her pace in the Queen Mary on Wednesday week.

For good measure, while she is proven over rattling fast going, Lennilu is the offspring of a sire whose best-ever performance actually came on rain-softened turf at Keeneland, where he finished just a length behind Glass Slippers in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. So there is the likelihood of ground versatility as an additional factor.

Fearsome rivals?

Another argument in favour of this foreign raider is the question mark over the field she is likely to face at Ascot. Market leader Zelaina shot to favouritism for her win at Nottingham, but without recording a time of any great note. Meanwhile, second favourite Lady Iman ran a very slow figure when winning a listed race over five furlongs at the Curragh but improved on that markedly when upped to six furlongs last time out. She is currently favourite for the Albany Stakes over that distance so may very well swerve this shorter contest. Indeed, the stable vibes are that this filly may bypass Royal Ascot altogether.

Each-way betting on 2-year-old sprints rarely appeals, and that applies all the more in Royal Ascot antepost betting, as the three-place terms on offer are likely to look derisory in the event of a large field assembling. Play this filly win-only. She is highly likely to shorten in the betting, so a back-to-partially-lay looks a much more efficient approach to risk control for those who like to hedge their exposure.

Recommendation: Back Lennilu @8/1 with Bet365 to win the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot on 18 June.