Al Quoz Sprint: Back to the reef, adding a French longshot

One of the most dangerous pitfalls for the habitual or indeed occasional punter is the natural tendency to back horses that have "delivered" previously.

Quite aside from the terrible logic of the associated psychological syllogism ("Martha's Vineyard won for me last time, Martha's Vineyard is running tomorrow, Martha's Vineyard is going to win for me again"), the likelihood of Martha's Vineyard being a value bet on her return to the racetrack after a successful foray is typically lower. She's on everyone's radar now.

But there are exceptions to the rule. And no matter how many times we parse through the runners in the Al Quoz Sprint next Saturday (6 furlongs, turf), we cannot understand how little respect is being afforded to the winner of the big turf sprint on the Saudi Cup card six weeks ago, the 1351 Turf Sprint.

Reef Runner did AntePoster followers a favour that night in Riyadh at 12/1, holding off hot favourite Lazzat (7/4) to land the spoils. And for all that we are mindful of the pitfall described above, we do not think David Fawkes's gelding should be priced at anything like 8/1 to take down another big turf sprint at Meydan next Saturday.

This is a deep closer, very effective at 5 furlongs when there's pace to run at, but also has the stamina for almost seven furlongs (the Riyadh race on 14 February was 6.75 furlongs). The Al Quoz trip of six furlong looks ideal.

Of Reef Runner's 11 rivals, the three other candidates at the top of the market don't do much for us at their current prices:

• Short-priced favourite Lazzat has the best body form in the race but is routinely overbet. For all his consistency, finishing positions of 2252 in his last four runs make grim reading on the value betting scale; he's been turned over at odds of 1/2, 1/1/, 2/1, and 7/4. Here he is trading at very short odds once again (15/8), yet his conqueror in Riyadh can be backed at more than four times the price.

  
  

• Second favourite Lugal from Japan is not without a chance. He's back in decent form after rather losing his way last year, finishing 2-1-3 in his last three races. So he too brings some consistency to the party. But he hasn't placed on his two forays abroad, and his third-placed last time in a blanket finish at Group 3 level doesn't really excite at the price, never mind at less than half the price of Reef Runner.

  
  

• The only other Group 1 winner in the field, Khaadem, has performed at a high level for many, many years. Admirable veteran, a credit to connections. But he is now 10 years of age, and while he can be excused his last time out flop behind Ka Ying Rising in Hong Kong (jockey had to run race with broken stirrup) he's run poorly on his seasonal debut for the last few seasons and has a desperately mediocre record at Meydan, with lifetime finishing positions of 13-3-8-13-6-13. None of those races were at G1 level.

In summary, we believe Reef Runner should be a much shorter price given both his big win last time and big-race consistency (a revelation since his gelding operation: first past the post in five of his last six races). There's a strong case to be made that he should be half his current odds (indeed, he's as short as 5/1 elsewhere). And William Buick booked to ride is icing on the cake.

But we won't leave it at that.

On all known form, the outsiders in the betting have to make a quantum leap to upset this race, but there is one exception: Rayevka at 16/1. France's brilliant trainer Francis-Henri Graffard has not brought this one to the Middle East for fresh air, and this filly had less than no chance on her first run at Meydan last month (5th of 14) when faced with a gross draw/pace bias. Her back class is clear for all to see (beaten less than a length in the G1 Commonwealth Cup last year), and the second-time-out angle appeals given her consistent profile of improving for a run.

We'll play both these runners each-way. Optimists might want to wait for the draw on Wednesday to see if any bookmakers offer an extra place, but that's far from guaranteed, and we'd expect the current prices to have long gone by then.

Recommendations for Al Quoz Sprint, Meydan racecourse, Saturday 28 March:

Back Reef Runner each-way at 8/1 with Paddy Power or Skybet. 13/2 still value.

Back Rayevka each-way at 16/1 with Bet365. 14/1 still value.