Arc de Triomphe: Why you should consider backing two big-priced outsiders who might not even run

It's rare, but sometimes there are situations in which the betting appeal in an antepost market involves a horse who might not even run.

We believe the Arc de Triomphe betting market is precisely such a scenario, and are strongly attracted to two French horses who are not yet confirmed for the race. Why? Because we believe they are astonishingly mispriced.

No big write-up here on the reasons why we like the horses in question - you can get a better idea of the detail (if of interest) from our in-depth article on the Arc trials published on this site earlier today.

Horse 1: Gezora at 20/1

Winner of the French Oaks (Prix de Diane), runner-up to Arc favourite Aventure in the Prix Vermeille on Sunday on her return to action after a very long break. We don't think she was favoured by the flow of that race, we think she has more upside, she has all the obvious weight advantages as a 3-year-old that have delivered so often in the Arc, and she is more than four times her conqueror's price. Has form on all ground.

Why might she not run? Trainer Francis-Henri Graffard post-race: I'm delighted and Gezora put up a great performance for her comeback run. Mickael [Barzalona, jockey] said he couldn't get on the back of Aventure turning in but she showed a great action coming home and he's not touched her. She's a very straightforward filly and the trip clearly wasn't a problem. I'll talk to the entourage but, if all goes well, she'll be back here for either the Arc or the Opera. My preference is the Arc, because the fillies look strong this year and it's a wide open race."

Why might she run: We would be very surprised if she didn't. The stable already have Quisisana (G1 Jean Romanet winner) for the Prix de l'Opera, and American owner Peter Brant is a proper sportsman with a love of horse racing, so we'd be gobsmacked if he didn't agree with Graffard that his Diane winner should go for the big one on 5 October. If lining up, she will surely be single figures. Win only.

Horse 2: Leffard at 66/1

Winner of the Grand Prix de Paris in July. After an 8-week break, he returned to the track for the Prix Niel on Sunday. We warned our youtube followers (see Arc trial video) to avoid this horse (2/1 favourite at time of recording, started at more or less the same price) like the plague on return, because trainer Jean-Claude Rouget had made it clear in the Saturday edition of Paris-Turf that Leffard was only 80% fit with the Arc next month in mind. But although he finished only 6th he was beaten less than three lengths, and it is clear from the sectional data (see website article) that he was horribly compromised by being settled well off an overly sedate pace. Fastest horse home, but all too late.

Why might he not run? Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget quoted in Paris-Turf for the edition of Wednesday 10 September (but available the night before):

It [the Prix Niel] was an average performance, but I'm not disappointed, because the competition was tough and [Leffard] was lacking a recent race. We'll see how he recovers and builds up his strength to confirm his entry in the Arc de Triomphe.

Why might he run: We appreciate that Rouget's language is more cautious than that of compatriot trainer Graffard. But with another sporting owner in the form of Gerard Augustin-Normand coveting the Arc grail and Leffard having been deliberately undercooked for his prep in the Prix Niel, we'd be surprised if this colt wasn't entering the gates at Longchamp on 5 October. Yes, there is more non-runner risk here, but 66/1 (just one bookmaker, as short as 33/1 in places) is just preposterous for a classy horse in a year when there is no standout. If he runs, we believe he will go off well below 20/1. We like the each-way angle here, as 13/1 for the place (66/5) is extremely appealing and worthy of the additional risk assumption.

Recommendation:

Back Gezora (win only) at 20/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power or Skybet to win the Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp racecourse on Sunday 5 October. Back Leffard each-way at 66/1 with Bet365 to win the same race.

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