Arc trials: sectional analysis and Arc de Triomphe implications

In a change from tradition, the three trial races for next month's Arc de Triomphe – the Prix Foy for older horses, the Prix Vermeille for fillies and mares, and the Prix Niel for 3-year-old colts – were brought forward a week. In addition to giving the horses that competed in these races an extra week's recovery before the big race, it also meant they were run on the same day as the G1 Prix du Moulin over a mile, making for a superb card for racegoers.

The AntePoster was at Longchamp in Sunday and has combined the visual performance impression of that day and multiple video rewatchings of the three races with analysis of the sectional times provided by France Galop for each race. The findings are set out below.

Sunday's ground

First of all, a minor – well actually major – moan about the information available to racegoers on the prevailing ground on Sunday at Longchamp. The information released by France Galop on its French website at 0941 stated that the ground was "souple" (literally "soft", but usually equated to what the British consider "good to soft"), going stick reading 3.5, but with the expectation (on a very hot and sunny day) that it would dry out to "bon souple" ( literally "good soft", but usually more akin to "good").

This assessment was confirmed by a French television interview with the Director of Racing at Longchamp (watched by The AntePoster) on Sunday morning.

However, in a separate Turfrax report based on data coming directly from Longchamp, the ground was given as "good, good to firm in places", using a different type of going stick reading of 8.1-8.2. This report was timed as being relevant at 0825 Sunday morning (FR or UK time not specified), but clearly pointed to proper fast summer ground being a given by the time racing started many hours later.

It is very clear in hindsight that the ground was indeed riding fast, with the Prix du Moulin, for example, being run in the fastest time this century. Yet those seeking retrospective information might well have been bemused to read that the ground was initially listed as "good" on Timeform before being upgraded to "good to firm", yet has been rated "good to soft" by the Racing Post and "soft" by both At The Races and The Sporting Life. To compound the sorry tale of incompetence on the part of organizations that should getting this kind of thing right, under its results overview section France Galop describes the ground at Longchamp that day as "souple"... but as "bon souple" when one clicks through to the detail of each race.

The racing public deserve so much better than this shambles. Internationally harmonized going stick measures and descriptions should be possible in 2025.

For what it's worth, the AntePoster has little doubt that the ground was no slower than a mixture of good and good to firm at any point. This is worth bearing in mind in view of the possibility of very different conditions prevailing at Longchamp in four weeks' time.

Prix Foy

The Arc trial for the older male horses featured a much bigger and higher quality field than the majority of those seen in previous years, and had reasonable claims to being a genuine trial for the first time in many a moon. The first two colts home in last year's Arc were present in the form of Sosie (4th, dual Group 1 since) and Los Angeles (3rd, Group 1 winner since). Other talented representatives for the home nation included Map of Stars (narrowly beaten by Sosie in the G1 Ganay) and Arrow Eagle (on a five-timer), while Ed Walker brought over the classy Almaqam who was stepping up to 12 furlongs for the first time. Meanwhile, the Japanese were represented by Byzantine Dream, a dual Group 2 winner in Japan and Saudi Arabia who had been beaten just a head in the G1 Tenno Sho over two miles in May.

Following a strongly-run race and a pulsating final two furlongs, it was the Japanese horse who would ultimately prevail by half a length from Sosie. The final time was 2:28.32, the third-fastest running this century.

Byzantine Dream (current Arc price: 12/1)

Analysis: Rather fell out of the stalls, which is perhaps partly why he was further back in the field than the other main players for almost all of the race. Moved into contention in the straight ominously, being the last off the bridle, and as he had to wait behind Sosie and Los Angeles for running room his half-length victory over the former can arguably be marked up. He ran the final five furlongs and final three furlongs quicker than any other horse in the race, as well as running the fastest single-furlong time (10.75). Not bad for a horse who has excelled over staying trips in his previous three runs.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Looks a major player in a month's time, not least as trainer Tomozasu Sakaguchi made it very plain on the eve of this race that his horse was not primed to be at his peak with 5 October in mind. The big question mark for this contender is the ground, however. Sakaguchi made it equally clear that his horse is at his best on fast going, and many a promising Japanese horse has sunk without trace on a Longchamp quagmire in the autumn. It not impossible Byzantine Dream will handle softer terrain (sire Epiphaneia was an emphatic 5-length winner of the Japanese St Leger in the mud) but it's an obvious red flag that he finished 14th of 14 only his only run in his native Japan on going with ease in it.

Sosie (current Arc price: 12/1)

Analysis: Given an ideal ride by Maxime Guyon, who settled him in mid-division and got a clear run between Los Angeles and Almaqam in the straight. Headed Los Angeles a furlong from home but was himself then headed by the winner after that one drew alongside. It's worth noting that Sosie fought tooth and nail to be beaten just half a length, with a full two lengths back to the third. That said, he was clearly second best on the day and ran the final three furlongs in 33.40 compared to Byzantine Dream's 33.09. The only mitigating factor that could be put forward in Sosie's defence is that he was placed slightly more forwardly than the winner in a race with a very strong pace (1-2-3-4 home ran exactly in the reverse order for the majority of the race).

Arc de Triomphe profile: An obvious player next month for the second year running, having finished a decent fourth in the 2024 edition (had previously won the Foy). However, although he too has been trained with the Arc at the forefront of the fitness regime, it's difficult to see why he should reverse form with the winner on fast-ish ground, not least as Byzantine Dream's trainer was much more vocal about his charge being short of peak fitness on the eve of the Foy. And on the other hand, as Sosie doesn't want it very soft – he was after all beaten more than four lengths last year as 3/1 favourite – it seems the sweet spot for Fabre's top gun would be genuine "good to soft" ground, which might nullify the visually apparent superiority of his conqueror on Sunday.

Almaqam (current Arc price: 50/1)

Analysis: Ran a very creditable race on his first attempt at 12 furlongs. Settled well in third for much of the race and made his bid for glory, but was ultimately well beaten by the front pair. His closing 3-furlong sectional was 33.77, which again was only third-best. However, he does not appear to have been beaten not for a lack of stamina, as he was clearly not falling further behind the front two at the line. Softer ground might well have seen him in a better light, as this surface was surely as fast as he wants it.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Connections have the choice between the Champion Stakes and the Arc, and Ed Walker's post-race instinct was to allow Almaqam to have another crack over this course and distance in a month's time. He has subsequently clarified that slightly by saying the Arc is the likely target given soft ground. We would definitely not rule this horse out if he lines up in the Arc on softer going, but for now there is no certainty about his participation, which presumably explains his current price.

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Los Angeles (current Arc price: 40/1)

Analysis: Disappointed many observers, most obviously those who backed him either win or each-way, yet the sectional data can easily be interpreted as evidence that he ran a huge race. He was the most forwardly positioned of the first four home, and although Christophe Soumillon wisely kept his mount well off the furious pace set by stablemate Mont St Michel, Los Angeles was not favoured by a race flow which saw him run the first seven furlongs 0.66 quicker than the winner. Given the very fast final time of the race, it's not difficult to conclude that this was to his disadvantage. It's also worth noting that Los Angeles only paid for this effort right at the end: having taken the lead with 200 metres to travel, he then wilted badly as the post loomed, running this last furlong the slowest of the first five home.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Connections have yet to commit Los Angeles to the Arc, but as that race has long been earmarked as his main seasonal target he seems likely to line up. It might be unwise to classify him a complete throw-out. Quite aside from O'Brien's observation that Los Angeles should come on again for this run, in keeping with the deliberately slow fitness build-up, this classy type has twice been compromised by running too close to a very fast pace on his last two Group 1 runs. If his next jockey (unclear who that will be) can get the fractions right in four weeks' time, ideally on ground with bit more dig in it, he would appeal as a genuine place threat at his current price.

Iresine Prior two-time winner of this race, ran well enough on ground that would have been on the fast side for his tastes. However, this gelding is irrelevant to the Arc discussion as he is barred from participating.

Arrow Eagle (current Arc price: 100/1)

Disadvantaged in two respects: the stable's insistence on the eve of the race that he was only 80% fit (see also Leffard in the Prix Niel analysis below), and a refusal to settle for much of the race. He duly faded badly in the final stages, trailing the winner's sectional time for the last three furlongs by more than a second. As it is impossible to quantify how much these dual negatives affected his performance, this talented horse of Jean-Claude Rouget is not completely dismissed from the Arc equation at an absolutely huge price. Newsflow to be monitored, participation unclear at the time of writing.

Map of Stars (current Arc price: 100/1)

Just couldn't get into the race, his first try over 12 furlongs, not helped by having fluffed the start. Given his back class, we wonder if this son of Cloth of Stars simply doesn't like fast ground (also struggled to get into the race in the Prince of Wales). Must be a doubt to line up in a month's time and may revert to the 10-furlong trip over which he has run many a fine race, although with owner Wathnan having no big gun to fire in the Arc perhaps they will roll the dice. However, it hardly inspires confidence that this previously reliable performer has put in three consecutive poor runs.

Prix Vermeille

The Arc trial for the fillies and mares was shorter on quantity than the other two races but looked as strong as the Foy from a quality perspective. Looming large in the betting was Aidan O'Brien's Whirl, who was coming here in search of a G1 hat-trick following impressive wins in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh and the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood. She was accompanied over from Ireland by Bedtime Story, who was looking for her first Group 1 after a long run of hard-luck stories rather than the bedtime kind. But the home nation had powerful cards to play here too: Aventure, who was runner-up to Bluestocking last year before filling up the same spot in the Arc behind the same filly, already boasted a strong 2025 CV with two wins and a second to Calandagan. Francis-Henri Graffard was represented by this winner of this year's Prix de Diane, Gezora, while the previous year's Prix de Diane runner-up Survie also arrived in a decent vein of form.

By comparison with the Prix Foy, the Vermeille was a much slower race, with the winner's final time of 2:29.34 being almost exactly a second slower than that recorded by Byzantine Dream some two hours earlier. But what emerges from the sectional data is the lack of pace in the race between five and three furlongs from home: the 1.02 seconds' difference between the two races is almost entirely attributable to the slow pace of the Vermeille at this point. By contrast, they completed the final three furlongs more quickly (although Byzantine Dream matched them on that metric).

Aventure (current Arc price: 9/2 co-favourite)

Analysis: Broke well and ran in second place for the first two furlongs before being allowed to settle back in fourth for the next eight furlongs of the race. Only well inside the third-last furlong did she make her move, jockey Maxime Guyon easing Aventure to the front and getting a handsome response when asked his filly for her maximum effort. The sectional data is interesting: Aventure's closing splits (last three furlongs) came in at 33.11 seconds, but in fact both the second and the third past the post ran home faster. The pace lull before the final 600 metres surely did those who were held up at the back no favours.

Arc de Triomphe profile: It was inevitable and logical that Aventure would shorten in the Arc market after this performance: She was a good winner of the only Group 1 Arc trial on the day, and the one that has the best record of providing winners in recent years. What's more, she adores Longchamp and has never put in a bad performance there, and is seemingly suited by any underfoot conditions. Big, big player – but whether or not she deserves to be as short at 9/2 is another matter. We're rather sceptical at that price.

Gezora (current Arc price: 20/1)

Analysis: The Prix de Diane winner was given a pronounced hold-up ride, being fifth of six for the great majority of the race, including when the pace was lagging well behind that of the Foy and the Niel from about five furlongs out. When the sprint came she was therefore badly positioned, and even an impressive closing split of 33.09 (matching Byzantine Dream in the Foy) did not allow her to make any significant inroads into the latter's lead. This was nonetheless an impressive performance, not least as it came after a break of almost three months following her Prix de Diane triumph in June.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Gezora's participation in the Arc de Triomphe is not quite certain: trainer Francis-Henri Graffard was at pains to stress that the Prix de l'Opera was also still on the table, although he himself favours the Arc. We would be surprised if owner Peter Brant were able to resist at tilt at the biggest prize of them all, and if confirmed we doubt very much 20/1 will last long. Gezora was disadvantageously placed relative to the winner given the race flow, may have more upside as a 3-year-old coming here off a long break, and has a good record on bad ground for good measure. Very dangerous if given the green light.

Bedtime Story (current Arc price: not quoted)

Analysis: While Gezora was given a hold-up ride, it was nothing compared to the ride given to Bedtime Story by Wayne Lordan, who positioned his filly a full two lengths behind that rival for almost the entirety of the race. Given how slowly the race was run up until the last three furlongs this was simply the worst position to have adopted, and in hindsight gave her no chance whatsoever of winning. It is notable that her closing three-furlong split of 33.07 was the fastest of any horse on the entire Longchamp card that day, including Rosallion in the Moulin over mile. Surely this filly has a big one in her at some point.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Not entered for the Arc de Triomphe, and while the supplementary six-figure fee that would have to be stumped up to to get her into the field is hardly unaffordable for the Coolmore-centred "Lads" who own her, we doubt very much she will be entered given how many options Ballydoyle have for this race. The Prix de l'Opera back at 10 furlongs looks the more likely port of call, but she also appeals a dark one for the Champion Fillies and Mares at Ascot should connections wish to try this trip again.

Survie (current Arc price: 100/1)

Analysis: Narrowly led at a sedate pace before conceding the lead to Whirl after five furlongs. Then settled in third behind the outsider of the field after that one took second, and maintained this position until she was overhauled by Bedtime Story for the final podium placing in the shadow of the post. The sectional splits confirm her inferiority to the three fillies who finished ahead of her: despite a relatively sedate pace for the first nine furlongs, she was more than half a second slower than the podium-placed horses for the final 600 metres.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Has an Arc entry but we would be very surprised if she took it up. As a filly who likes faster ground the prevailing conditions were pretty much perfect for her on Sunday, and it takes a big leap of faith to seeing her turn any of this form around on Arc day. After four successive defeats against her own gender, hoping for a performance for the ages against the best of her sex as well the males on Arc day looks like a fool's errand. The three-figure price looks justified.

Whirl (current Arc price: 33/1)

Analysis: The mystery disappointment of the race. Was deliberately keep wide by Christophe Soumillon in the middle the track for the first three furlongs, well away from the other fillies. Then took the lead and held it until shortly after taking the final bend, when – despite the sedate pace she had set as leader – the distress signals started to come out and she was immediately pressured and duly passed by the complete outsider of the field as well as her main rivals. She trailed in last.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Looks unlikely to run in the Arc now, not least as she would need to be supplemented, which would look almost reckless after a run like this. On the other hand, it seems clear to The AntePoster that she must have had an off day, as there is no way a horse of her class should have been struggling to hold off the complete outsider after just ten furlongs. One other interesting possibility is that the strip of ground she ran on for the first three furlongs may have been softer than the rail where the rest of the field was clustered. Either way, this may yet prove to have been a one-off flop.

Prix Niel

A bigger field than usual but one that looked short on quality compared to the other two big trials, as none of the eight entries had won a race of significant standing this season bar the short favourite Leffard (Grand Prix de Paris, July). Still, Cualificar had only been narrowly beaten in the Prix du Jockey Club, Tennessee Stud was a Group 1 winner at two and had been placed in two Derbies this season, Swagman had won his only seasonal start, while Parachutiste, Nitoi and Bay City Roller had all hinted that there might be more to come.

This race was run very slowly compared to the previous two trials, with the final time of 2:30.56 being 1.22 seconds slower than the Vermeille and a gaping 2.24 seconds slower than the Foy. This is partly explained by a very non-urgent start to the race, with no one wanting to lead and Tennessee Stud ultimately having to take up that role on sufferance. By contrast, the pace picked up dramatically long before the horses reached the straight, with the data showing clearly that the 9th and 10th furlongs were run significantly faster than the other two trials. This was ultimately not conducive to a fast finish, and the closing three-furlong sectional accordingly reveals that the Niel was the slowest of the three trials at this point too. Very strange race flow, and that should be borne in mind when the beaten horses return to the track.

Cualificar (current Arc price: 14/1)

Analysis: Broke well and settled in third on the inside once the field had sorted itself out. Remained in that position for most of the rest of the race, but it became increasingly clear as the field moved into the straight that jockey William Buick would need racing room. And he didn't get it from the two-furlong marker until the one-furlong marker, by which time Bay City Roller had taken a sizeable lead. It is to Cualficar's credit that he was able to turn on the turbo boosters and get up to win in time (his final furlong time was almost a quarter of a second quicker than that of the runner-up). Given how long he was trapped for, Cualificar emerges as by far the best horse in this race.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Was a lofty 40/1 for the Arc when the gates opened and perhaps surprisingly has only shortened to 20/1 on the back of this victory. On the one hand this reflects the widespread belief that the Niel was the the weakest of the three trials held at Longchamp on Sunday, along with the indisputable fact that it was by far the slowest. On the other hand, the slow pace can hardly be laid at the Godolphin runner's door, he was trapped with nowhere to go when racing room was urgently required, and with just one single run on his CV at this trip there is no way of knowing how much more he may have to give in a 12-furlong race run at a truer pace. Looks significantly overpriced, for all that he doesn't appeal as one of the likeliest winners (an important distinction that is often misunderstood).

Bay City Roller (current Arc price: not quoted)

Analysis: Settled in the middle of the field by Callum Shepherd who had a clear run when he needed it. Accelerated impressively to take the lead but was cut down just before the winning post. This is a case where much of the sectional data has to be taken with pinch of salt: this colt ran a quicker best-furlong speed than Cualificar (11.09 vs 11.28), a faster final five furlongs (57.78 vs 57.86), and a faster 9th, 10th and 11th furlong. But at the end of the day, he was emphatically second best to a horse that just couldn't get out for a significant proportion of the business end of the race and mowed his rival down when he did.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Admirable performance, but we doubt that will suffice for Victorious Racing to stump up the hefty six-figure sum require to supplement him into a race for which he holds no entry (a win would have sorted that problem). Even if he is supplemented, we would be very surprised if he could turn the tables on the winner, let alone take down a slew of proven Group 1 performers.

Parachutiste (current Arc price: 100/1)

Analysis: Had got back on track with a win in a listed race after disappointing in the Prix du Jockey Club (10th) and the Prix Eugene Adam (last of six behind Daryz). He ran well here, settling in midfield and – like the winner – finding himself short of room a furlong and a half from home. Got a clear run before that rival, however, so it's difficult to upgrade his third-placed finish to the same extent. Those looking for sectional data might find encouragement in the fact that he was second-last after the first 7 furlongs in what was a slowly run race, which can hardly have helped his cause.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Has an entry but has failed to show anything like the ability to win a race as contested as the Arc in six runs this season. Lofty price justified.

Tennessee Stud (current Arc price: 100/1)

Analysis: Not seen since the Irish Derby in late June, Joseph O'Brien's colt found himself – probably very reluctantly – in front after a furlong or so in the absence of any other horse willing to take on that role. While the pace was not strong for much of the race, he and Nitoi went at each other relentlessly in front as they entered the straight, the former winning the battle but not the war as three others sailed past in the final furlong. While there is limited encouragement to be gained from analysis of his sectionals, neither the fast ground nor the race dynamics worked out to his advantage on the day. He is one we will be interested in next time out, particularly if the ground has some ease in it.

Arc de Triomphe profile: While it is doubtful that this one will take up his Arc engagement (connections have the better-credentialled Los Angeles), it is quite conceivable that this colt, a winner of a heavy-ground Group 1 as a juvenile, might be seen to better effect on softer ground in a race run at a faster pace (ideally without him having to make the running).

Nitoi (current Arc price: 100/1)

Analysis: The AntePoster felt Nitoi was an intriguing play in this race at 20/1. Clearly so did others as he was heavily backed down to 15/2 but he ultimately disappointed. Took up a prominent position in second for most of the race, showing a certain amount of keenness. Went head-to-head with Tennessee Stud in the straight and at one point vied for the lead, but faded right out of it towards the finish. Only beaten just over two lengths, however.

Arc de Triomphe profile: With the Wertheimer brothers having two huge players in this year's Arc in Aventure and Sosie (same pair that represented them last year), it's difficult to see this fellow joining them, and even more difficult to see him being competitive in that eventuality.

Leffard (current Arc price: 66/1)

Analysis: The alarm bells were well and truly ringing over this one's chances on the prior Friday night, when Paris Turf contained a comment from connections that the Grand Prix de Paris winner was coming into the Niel only 80% fit, with solely the Arc on 5 October in mind (see our Arc trial Youtube video for a health warning about his chances). He duly disappointed in no uncertain terms: held up close to last, showed signs of keenness, and never really got into the race until the home straight. However, in this one's case the sectional data is eye-catching. His last five furlongs (and last three furlongs) were the fastest in the field, and in a slowly-run race he had very little chance.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Whether connections go for the Arc after this disappointing race in which he finished sixth of eight (in a race for which he started approx. 2/1 favourite) is not clear, but 66/1 would be highly attractive in the event that he is given the green light. Do not give up on this guy. He almost certainly wasn't race-fit for the Niel and could run a mighty race if taking up his entry.

Swagman, Aftermath (current Arc price: unquoted)

Analysis: With the O'Brien stable's modus operandi being to bring their horses along slowly, always needing their first run, it was rather mystifying to see this pair (unraced for five months and a year respectively) entered in this Group 2 race at all. They ran in the rear the whole way and remained last and second last at the finish.

Arc de Triomphe profile: Neither horse is entered in the Arc, and surely neither will be supplemented at a six-figure price on the back of this.