Breeders Cup Juvenile: Turn those lights out!

This is a fascinating time of year for antepost bettors interested in the Breeders Cup. The attention of the racing world in Europe (jumps fans aside) is firmly on Champions Day at Ascot, yet multiple snippets of information regarding Breeders Cup running plans are coming out of the US every day. Many of these are of material significance and go unnoticed in betting markets.

Call us sad, but The AntePoster has grappled with a double-figure number of articles and tweets relating to the 14 races to be run at Del Mar in fortnight's time in the last 24 hours alone. And this newsflow will keep coming thick and fast, in particular for the turf races once Ascot is in the rear-view mirror.

What's our point? Well, there was one item of news came today that sent a surge of adrenaline through The AntePoster's veins. This related to a horse trained by Ken McPeek, who served up last year's Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks winners. But we are not referring to the retirement of Thorpedo Anna, who won the latter. Good mare, may she RIR (rest in retirement).

No, the intriguing article related to the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and in particular to McPeek's colt Blackout Time, who can currently be backed at 18/1 for this race. That feels like at least double the price he should be, presumably based on the fact that this horse was previously a "doubtful" entrant. But McPeek has had a change of heart, and so Blackout Time runs. And he's a cracking each-way play in our view.

The big negative first: Blackout Time was beaten last time out by BC Juvenile favourite Ted Noffey from the Todd Pletcher stable. By 2.75 lengths.

But Ted Noffey is likely to be the shortest-priced favourite of the entire Breeders Cup meet: currently best-priced 6/4, we expect him to go off shorter than Sovereignty in the Classic, and shorter than Seismic Beauty in the Distaff. Predicted to off at around even money on David Aragona's advance morning line, he is quite simply the clear standout of the division. Unbeaten, with two dominant Grade 1 wins following an equally impressive debut victory.

So why on earth do we like Blackout Time, who was beaten so comprehensively by Ted Noffey last time out?

Rationale:

• Ted Noffey won his previous Grade 1 (Hopeful Stakes, Saratoga) by more than eight lengths. Based on both official ratings and speed figures, he didn't actually improve when winning the Futurity at Keeneland. But Blackout Time did improve considerably on his previous effort (a 9-length win at relatively minor US racetrack Ellis Park). Indeed, McPeek's colt has improved with each start, i.e. he remains for now on an upward trajectory. We are not sure that is true of Ted Noffey, and think this gap can be closed in a race where favourites are 5 from 25 over the last quarter of a century, with many a hot-shot blowing out.
  

• Equally, if Ted Noffey is as good as he is chalked up to be and blows this field away, there is a decent chance that Blackout Time will once again prove the second-best horse in this race. We therefore believe has an outstanding chance of at least placing, even if a win looks like quite an ask.

  
  

• Of his rivals, we are leery (as the Americans would say) about the Baffert pair:

  
  

  - Big-money purchase Brant (best-priced 9/2) ran a huge speed figure first time out over 5.5 furlongs, but clearly took a backwards step on his next start in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity when stepped up in trip to 7 furlongs. This kind of regression from a huge performance is commonplace phenomenon with US juveniles running on dirt and is something of a red flag, not least as this weaker performance came at the BC host venue. As a further concern, Brant is also being brought here after a long break, which is not a move Baffert has had success with in this race in the past. - Desert Gate (best-priced 14/1) ran Brant close in the above-mentioned Del Mar Futurity despite stumbling at the start, but regressed himself when failing to deliver as 9/10 favourite in the G1 American Pharoah over the BC Juvenile distance. Desert Gate tired noticeably, and while he was ultimately beaten less than a length, it was still a disappointment at the price. We actually prefer him to Brant (certainly at the current market odds, 14s is standout), but find him much less appealing than Blackout Time.

  
  

• Intrepido (best price 10/1), narrow conqueror of Desert Gate in the American Pharoah, is on an upward curve himself. This makes him a possible upset candidate too. However, he has less impressive speed figures than Blackout Time yet is almost half the price.

  
  

• The BC Juvenile field is shaping up to be the "leanest" of all the juvenile races. There appears to be zero chance of the maximum field size of 12 being reached. Indeed, at the time of writing, the Daily Racing Form could identify only eight horses likely to be pre-entered by next Monday's deadline. If they are right about the prospective field, the UK/Irish antepost market for this race is around 10% underround.

In summary, we suspect Blackout Time is capable of proving himself the second-best horse in this field come 31 October, yet is priced out as a wild outsider. His price is so generous partly because of doubts over his participation, but with those doubts removed by newsflow last night he represents a highly attractive betting opportunity, not least as this race has a gorgeous each-way shape already.

Recommendation: Back Blackout Time each-way at 18/1 with Paddy Power or Skybet to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Del Mar on Friday 31 October.

The 16/1 available with Unibet is also highly attractive. In the unlikely event of the round of price cuts that we expect to follow publication of this article leaving 14/1 on the table, that's OK too.