Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf: Lap up the moisture at a massive 20/1

The Breeders Cup this year is once again to be held at Del Mar – Where the Surf Meets the Turf, as the catchphrase goes. The racetrack is (almost) literally a stone's throw from the Pacific Ocean, which lends the dirt surface very specific characteristics with the salt moisture wafting in from the sea.

Perhaps it affects the turf course too, but we wouldn't know about that. What we do know is that – along with the Turf for the older horses – the Juvenile Turf is a race that the American find devilishly difficult to win. The last four runnings have gone to the Europeans, and it's interesting to note that all three editions of the races staged at Del Mar have seen transatlantic raiders lift the prize.

As with many of the races on grass this far out, it's very difficult to get a precise handle on who precisely will travel over from the big stables. At the moment it sounds like Ballydoyle will have Puerto Rico (currently 5/2 favourite) while Godolphin will rely on Wild Desert (6/1). Decent colts, but neither appeals at those prices three weeks out, particularly in the absence of travel certainty.

The AntePoster was idly watching Nick Luck this afternoon, specifically an interview with Andrew Balding on the subject of his Champions Day team for Ascot. The ears pricked up in particular when the talk turned to his Breeders Cup team: See The Fire for the Filly and Mare Turf (no surprise there, recommended by us at 8/1), Jonquil for the Mile (also no surprise), but also Humidity for the Juvenile Turf.

We like to keep our ear very close to the ground when it comes to Breeders Cup newsflow, but confess this was news to us. Interesting. Cue a visit to Oddschecker. Hmm, not quoted apparently as we first scrolled through. But that's because we hadn't scrolled down far enough. Remarkably, you can get 20/1 with Paddy Power and Skybet.

This appeals hugely. The impressive winner of the Jersey Stakes flopped badly in the G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood in late July, we've no idea why. But he got back on track (of sorts) with a narrow miss in the G3 Solario Stakes at Sandown, where we suspect he he didn't enjoy the soft ground at all.

But it's his run last time out that forms the basis of our case here. Returned to good to firm ground for the first time since his Royal Ascot win, he finished a fine second to Bow Echo in the G2 Royal Lodge, losing his rhythm as they headed in to the Rowley Mile dip and looking like he would be swamped but at least three rivals, but rallying gamely to go down by just a length at the line.

That was a cracking run. Bow Echo is one of the juvenile stories of the season, and currently sits second in the betting for the 2000 Guineas. To be beaten just a length by George Boughey's colt was quite something, particularly as (to our eyes) Humidity handled the idiosyncrasies of the Rowley Mile less fluently than that rival.

If forced to play bookmaker we would price him in middle to high single figures, and certainly no higher than the 10/1 chalked up by Ladbrokes and Coral. We think Paddy Power and Skybet have got Balding's colt badly wrong at double this price.

We'll play each way, as the equivalent 4/1 offered for the place also looks cracking value.

Recommendation: Back Humidity each-way at 20/1 with Paddy Power or Skybet to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar on Friday 31 October.

(If these linked bookmakers cut to 16s after the first clutch of followers have backed at the recommended price that's OK too.)